Source : the age
By Stan Choe
US stocks ripped higher following a shot of adrenaline from an encouraging update on US inflation. Strong profit reports from Wells Fargo and other big US banks also helped launch indexes to their best day in two months.
The S&P 500 jumped 1.8 per cent. The Dow Jones rallied 703 points, or 1.7 per cent, and the Nasdaq composite leaped 2.5 per cent. The Australian sharemarket is set to jump, with futures at 7.50am AEDT pointing to a gain of 104 points, or 1.3 per cent, at the open. The ASX slid by 0.2 per cent on Wednesday.
Wall Street jumped on the back of the latest inflation data.Credit: AP
Treasury yields also eased in the bond market following the update on how much more US households had to pay in December for eggs, petrol, housing and other costs of living. The report said overall inflation accelerated to 2.9 per cent from 2.7 per cent in November.
While no one wants higher inflation, the numbers were more encouraging underneath the surface. After ignoring prices for food and energy, which can zigzag sharply from month to month, underlying inflation trends slowed to 3.2 per cent in December. Economists had thought it would remain at 3.3 per cent for a fourth straight month, according to FactSet.
The Federal Reserve pays more attention to that underlying number than the overall figure, and it’s particularly welcome following worries that improvements in inflation have halted and that it will be tough to get all the way down to the Fed’s 2 per cent target.
Few traders expect Wednesday’s data to convince the Fed to cut its main interest rate at its meeting later this month, as it’s done at three straight meetings since September. But economists and analysts say it could open the door for cuts later in the year, maybe even in March, if more data comes in to show that upward pressure on inflation is abating.
“Perhaps the key takeaway is that markets are likely to be whipsawed over the next few data releases as investors seek a narrative that they can be comfortable with for more than just a few days at a time,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.
Wall Street has been lurching down and up for weeks as traders tear up their forecasts for what the Fed will do with interest rates in 2025. A further easing would boost the US economy and prices for investments, but it could also give inflation more fuel.
Traders were ebullient last year about the possibility of a string of cuts to rates, when they sent stocks to dozens of all-time highs, only to rein in their expectations more recently. The Fed itself has indicated it may cut rates only two times this year instead of the four it had earlier projected, and some traders have even considered the possibility of future hikes to rates.
Wednesday’s update quashed speculation about hikes in the near term, and Treasury yields eased in the bond market on growing hopes for coming cuts. The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped back to 4.65 per cent from 4.79 per cent late Tuesday, which is a considerable move. It had largely been screaming higher since September, when it was below 3.65 per cent.
The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for the Fed’s upcoming actions, fell to 4.26 per cent from 4.37 per cent.
On Wall Street, bank stocks helped lead the way after several reported stronger profits for the last three months of 2024 than analysts expected.
Wells Fargo jumped 6.7 per cent, Citigroup rallied 6.5 per cent and Goldman Sachs gained 6 per cent. They’re among the first big US companies to report their results for the end of 2024, and even more focus may be on them than usual.
When Treasury yields are climbing and bonds are paying more in interest, it cranks up the pressure on stock prices by peeling investors away from stocks and into bonds. To make up for it, stock prices typically either have to fall or corporate profits have to rise more strongly.
Stocks of companies that would get a big benefit from lower interest rates were also toward the front of the market.
Builders FirstSource, a supplier of countertops and other building materials, rose 4.7 per cent, for example. It and other housing-related companies would get a boost from easier mortgage rates.
All told, the S&P 500 rose 107.00 points to 5,949.91. The Dow Jones gained 703.27 to 43,221.55, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 466.84 to 19,511.23.
The encouraging US inflation data also helped to perk up stock indexes abroad by lowering the pressure on the global bond market.
The FTSE 100 in London rallied 1.2 per cent. UK markets have been under pressure because of a jump in bond yields amid worries about a sluggish economy and the country’s finances.
Indexes also rose 0.7 per cent in France and 1.5 per cent in Germany. They were more subdued in Asia, where trading closed before the release of the US inflation data.
South Korea’s Kospi was nearly unchanged after law enforcement officials detained impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol on Wednesday in connection with his failed declaration of martial law last month.
AP
