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By Aaron Boxerman
Updated January 20, 2025 — 3.40pm

Jerusalem: Israel and Hamas agreed on an initial six-week truce in part by putting most intractable disputes off until a nebulous second phase – which neither side is sure they will reach.

Under the agreement, 16 days into the initial ceasefire, Israeli and Hamas officials are expected to begin negotiating the next steps: an end to the war, release of remaining living hostages from the Gaza Strip and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the territory.

Members of the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas, celebrate the ceasefire in Deir al-Balah.Credit: AP

Israeli leaders have long insisted that they will not end the war until Hamas is destroyed. That appeared far from reality on Sunday as Hamas militants, some waving rifles, fanned out in parts of Gaza in pick-up trucks, in a show of authority to Palestinians and Israelis alike.

Israel and Hamas have both preserved some of their bargaining chips. At the end of the 42-day truce, Hamas will still have around two-thirds of the 98 remaining hostages, including dozens who are believed to be dead. Israel will still occupy parts of Gaza, and hold major prisoners, including Marwan Barghouti, a militant leader and Palestinian political figure.

But as part of the talks, the Israeli government will probably have to decide whether it is willing to choose bringing home the hostages over destroying Hamas. Choosing the hostages might threaten Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s grip on power in Israel.

In the meantime, both sides have agreed to postpone a decisive agreement as to the war’s end and the future of Gaza, and hope the 42-day ceasefire will play to their advantage, said Shlomo Brom, a retired Israeli brigadier general. Hamas, in particular, “hopes that the new dynamic will prevent Israel from returning to fighting”, he said.

Qassam Brigades fighters control the crowd as Red Cross vehicles manoeuvre to collect Israeli hostages.

Qassam Brigades fighters control the crowd as Red Cross vehicles manoeuvre to collect Israeli hostages.Credit: AP

The decision to accept a temporary ceasefire opened deep fissures within Netanyahu’s governing coalition, which is stacked with hardliners. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right national security minister, resigned from the cabinet in protest and withdrew his Jewish Power party from the coalition on Sunday.

The Religious Zionism party, led by Bezalel Smotrich, threatened to leave the coalition if Netanyahu failed to renew the fighting after the end of the truce. If Smotrich’s party also left, Netanyahu’s government would hold fewer than half of the seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, which could cause the government to fall and force new elections.

On Saturday night, Netanyahu stressed that the ceasefire was temporary for now. He argued that Israel retained the right to return to the war if “the second stage negotiations are ineffectual”, adding that President-elect Donald Trump would support Israel’s decision.

“We retain the right to return to the war, if necessary, with the backing of the United States,” Netanyahu said in a televised address.

The truce’s fragility was underscored Sunday morning when Hamas did not immediately hand over a list of hostages to be released to Israel, prompting a nearly three-hour delay in the ceasefire.

Analysts say the deal will probably see numerous similar tests over the next few weeks as both sides flex their muscles.

The families of Israeli hostages still held in Gaza have called on the Israeli government to bring home the remaining captives by fulfilling all the phases of the deal. Noa Argamani, a freed hostage whose boyfriend, Avinatan Or, remains in captivity, said that it broke her heart that he was not going to be freed in this round.

“The progress in the past few days is a very important step, but the deal must go through in full, completely, in all of its stages,” Argamani said in a speech in Miami on Thursday.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.