Source : the age
Anger over the cost of living is eroding support for Labor in Australia’s most marginal seats, highlighting the challenge for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in gaining a convincing lead over the Coalition in the final two weeks of the campaign.
An exclusive survey for this masthead by research firm Resolve Strategic shows 47 per cent of voters name the cost of living as the biggest reason for hesitating in giving their vote to Labor, ahead of other factors such as managing the economy.
Voters in marginal seats are angered by the cost of living.Credit: Marija Ercegovac
Results also reveal that 45 per cent name Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and his personality as the top reason they would not cast a ballot for the Coalition.
The concern about Dutton has widened among voters since the Resolve Political Monitor asked the same question in February, when 35 per cent said his personality as leader was the main reason for hesitation.
The findings come as senior Labor figures say they are “not taking anything for granted” despite public polls showing a swing against Dutton and the Coalition since the government unveiled an $8.5 billion boost for Medicare in February and personal tax cuts in the March 25 federal budget.
Nationals leader David Littleproud on Sunday accused the government of running a “Mediscare” campaign with a false claim that the Coalition would cut health spending, and declared the Coalition would make no cuts to Medicare.
“We won’t tamper with it in any way, shape or form. In fact, this is a desperate diversion from a prime minister that has problems with telling the truth and is running away from his record,” he told the Seven Network.
Littleproud said the bulk-billing rate was 88 per cent when the Coalition were in government but had fallen to 77 per cent under Labor. That statement prompted the government to argue that this was because the rates were artificially high when COVID vaccinations were included during the pandemic.
Albanese attended an Easter Sunday church service at St Mary’s Cathedral in Sydney before talking about sport on the Nine Network’s (rugby league) Sunday Footy Show, while Dutton joined a community breakfast in Ipswich and made a statement to mark Easter and urge families to stay safe during the holiday.
Early voting begins on Tuesday, and the latest survey shows 30 per cent of voters are still “uncommitted” about their support.
The Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for this masthead by research firm Resolve Strategic, found in January that 39 per cent of voters were uncommitted and 61 per cent were committed when asked the same questions.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on The Sunday Footy Show in Sydney on Sunday.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
“We’re not taking anything for granted,” Employment Minister Murray Watt told Sky News on Sunday.
“In all the marginal seats around the country, things are still very close, and that’s obviously where this election will be decided.”
Inside the numbers in marginal seats
Findings in the new survey reveal the personal factors shaping the choice for voters – especially in marginal seats – ahead of the next debate between the two leaders, on Nine on Tuesday night.
While 47 per cent of all voters named the lack of action on the cost of living as a reason to hesitate in voting Labor, it was slightly higher in marginal seats at 49 per cent.
While 45 per cent named Dutton’s personality as leader as a concern about voting for the Coalition, this was also slightly higher in marginal electorates at 46 per cent.
Resolve director Jim Reed said the hesitancy about each side was a major theme in recent surveys, both in spontaneous comments from respondents and in answers to questions.
“This tells us that doubts about the leaders and parties are crystallising in people’s minds as they engage on the issues – and as each party tries to turn these doubts into vote drivers,” he said.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, wife Kirrilly and their dog Ralph at a community breakfast in Ipswich on Sunday.Credit: James Brickwood
“The Coalition has been using dissatisfaction with Labor’s progress on cost of living and the economy. While that’s coming through, we’re seeing those reservations subside in light of the interest rate cut, the budget and the international uncertainty.
“Incumbency has suddenly become an advantage.
“Labor’s attacks on Dutton’s personality and the perceptions about [Dutton’s] affinity with [US President Donald] Trump are increasingly hitting home. Labor is having some success in framing a change of government as the risky option.”
The identity of local candidates is a minor factor for most Australians, with 10 per cent saying it was a concern about voting Coalition and 9 per cent saying the same about Labor.
The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1642 eligible voters from April 9 to 13, generating results with a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points.
While the survey found an increase in the Labor primary vote to 31 per cent, this remains below the government’s result at the 2022 election and means it would have to rely more heavily on preferences to gain victory.
Many voters expressed reluctant support for Labor when the Resolve Political Monitor gave respondents an opportunity to put their views in short remarks.
“I’ve tended to vote Labor, but the economy has just suffered too much on their watch,” said one. Another said: “I thought I knew who to vote for, but now I’m up in the air.”
A third said: “Really feel that Labor have lost their way. The debt’s spiralling, immigration is out of control.” Another said: “Voting on the cost of living and the tariffs – not sure what we can do about that”, in an apparent reference to Trump and his trade policies.
