Source : NEW INDIAN EXPRESS NEWS
PARIS: A deadly attack in the contested Kashmir region has prompted fears of spiralling conflict between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan.
New Delhi, which accuses Pakistan of backing the attack, has not yet taken military action. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given the Indian army “complete operational freedom” to respond.
Pakistan, which denies responsibility, has vowed to retaliate against “any act of aggression”.
– Deadly precedent –
The worst recent attack in Kashmir was at Pulwama in 2019, when a suicide bomber rammed a car packed with explosives into a security forces convoy, killing 40 and wounding 35.
Indian fighter jets carried out air strikes on Pakistani territory 12 days later.
“The situation was eventually defused, thanks in part to diplomatic pressure from Washington, but relations have remained at a standstill ever since,” said Praveen Donthi, an analyst for the International Crisis Group.
Modi “showed he was capable of using force in 2019 and is now reaffirming that capability”, said Melissa Levaillant of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Asia Programme.
– Modi under pressure –
Modi is facing mounting public pressure at home to respond to the attack.
“Many Indians demanded retribution against Pakistan,” Donthi said.
“Criticism of the Indian government’s perceived failure to protect civilians was also widespread.”
The attack prompted a wave of anti-Pakistan sentiment in India, Levaillant said.
“But it’s not clear exactly what the Indians want, particularly given that Pakistani support for terrorist groups has fallen sharply,” she told AFP.
– International response –
The international community may be less likely to intervene than after previous spates of violence, like in 2019, analysts said.
“The US has a full plate with Ukraine, Gaza and the Iran deal, which may provide an opening to Beijing to insert itself into the crisis,” said Colin Clarke, senior research fellow at The Soufan Center in New York.
“However, given China’s close relationship with Pakistan, it is unlikely that China would be trusted as an objective interlocutor by India.”
The United States would be even more likely to stay out of a possible conflict under the Trump administration, according to Levaillant.
“Their relations with Pakistan have deteriorated and Islamabad is no longer a strategic asset in managing the Taliban in Afghanistan,” she said.
SOURCE :- NEW INDIAN EXPRESS
