SOURCE : NEW18 NEWS
Last Updated:May 25, 2025, 13:41 IST
Nifty Outlook This Week: With multiple data releases lined up and global uncertainty simmering, investors should brace for heightened volatility.
With long unwinding still in progress and FIIs turning more cautious, the analyst warns that next week may test traders’ patience
Nifty Outlook This Week: The Indian stock market experienced heightened volatility this week, largely due to the turbulence in the global bond markets. Both the Nifty and Sensex slipped nearly 0.7% each, settling at 24,853 and 81,721 respectively. This came after a robust 4% rally in the prior week, suggesting some cooling off after a sharp move. In contrast, the Bank Nifty index edged up by 43 points buoyed by positive sentiments in banking heavyweights.
Recommended Stories
Despite the dip, Nifty continues to trade above key moving averages, including the 21-day and 200-day EMAs, pointing to underlying strength in the broader trend. The derivatives setup remains moderately bullish, with the OI Put-Call Ratio (PCR) for Nifty holding above 1.0, while the Bank Nifty PCR stands at 0.86, signaling a more neutral tone.
Technical Setup: Bulls Hold Their Ground
“The Nifty has safeguarded its swing low and staged a strong recovery, sending a loud signal: bulls are yet unwilling to step aside,” says Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Analyst at Samco Securities Limited. He notes that the price structure continues to form higher tops and bottoms, remaining above the 20-day EMA — a clear sign of an upward bias.
According to Dhameja, 24,500 is a crucial support level, bolstered by aggressive Put writing. On the upside, the 24,800–25,000 zone is packed with resistance and Call buildup. A breakout above 25,150 could trigger a swift rally toward 25,500, he adds. However, as long as the index holds above 24,500, dip-buying is likely to stay dominant, even as volatility brews under the surface.
With long unwinding still in progress and FIIs turning more cautious, the analyst warns that next week may test traders’ patience, as markets lack a decisive direction and are navigating through noise in search of stronger cues.
Key Triggers For The Week Ahead
The coming week is expected to be influenced by a blend of global and domestic developments, according to Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group.
He highlights the following key triggers:
1. Fed Chair Powell’s Speech – May 26
All eyes will be on Jerome Powell, who will deliver a speech on Monday, potentially offering fresh insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. Traders will look for hints on future rate decisions, especially with possible shifts in the U.S. political landscape.
2. FOMC Minutes – May 28
On Wednesday, the minutes from the May 6–7 FOMC meeting will be released, providing detail on the Fed’s discussion around the 4.25%–4.50% policy rate, inflation trends, and growth concerns. This will be crucial in gauging how policymakers are assessing the evolving economic environment.
3. India Industrial Data – May 28
India’s Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data for April will also be released mid-week, with forecasts at 3.2% and 3.1% (YoY), respectively. These indicators will give a sense of how India’s manufacturing base is holding up.
4. US Q1 GDP Estimate and Jobless Claims – May 29
The second estimate for US GDP growth (Q1 2025) is expected at -0.3%, confirming a mild contraction. Alongside, the Initial Jobless Claims report will provide insights into labor market resilience, which is key for rate outlook.
5. India Q1 FY25 GDP – May 30
A major domestic highlight will be the release of India’s Q1 FY25 GDP data, forecasted at 6.0% YoY. A stronger-than-expected reading could reaffirm confidence in India’s economic momentum and support bullish sentiment in equity markets.
6. US Personal Income and Spending – May 30
The US Personal Income and Spending data for March — expected at 0.5% and 0.4% MoM, respectively — will also help assess consumer strength, a key driver of economic growth.
7. China Manufacturing PMI – May 31
To wrap up the week, China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI will be released on Saturday. With a forecast of 48.6, the reading will be watched closely for signs of continued weakness in China’s factory activity.
What to Expect
With multiple data releases lined up and global uncertainty simmering, investors should brace for heightened volatility. While Nifty’s near-term structure remains intact above 24,500, the 25,000–25,150 range remains a make-or-break zone for fresh momentum.
Looking ahead, investors will be closely watching the upcoming Indian GDP figures, along with U.S. Big budget, inflation data and weekly jobless claims, to gauge the strength and trajectory of economic recovery both domestically and globally, said Vinod Nair, Geojit Investments Ltd.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips by experts in this News18.com report are their own and not those of the website or its management. Users are advised to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
- First Published:
May 25, 2025, 13:40 IST
