PSG will edge Arsenal in a Champions League classic – with one key caveat

Are London’s streets about to host another party, or will the defending champions cement European greatness? So much is riding on this Champions League final for both Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain. So much ambition can be realised and lost in a single game in Budapest in the early hours on Sunday.

Mikel Arteta, having just secured Arsenal’s first English Premier League title since in 2004, now has the chance to achieve what even Arsene Wenger’s Invincibles could not. To mend the little piece of Gunners hearts still broken by the 2006 near-miss: that 2-1 loss to Barcelona at the Stade de France. Twenty years on, a first taste of Europe’s premier prize is within reach once more. All that stands in the way is the continent’s most unstoppable team.

And PSG will want this badly, too. To retain the trophy would be to join Zinedine Zidane’s Real Madrid as only the second club to go back to back in the Champions League era. Even before 1992, such a feat was rare. The elite European Cup group is Real Madrid in the 1950s, Benfica and Inter Milan in the ’60s, Kevin Keegan’s Liverpool, Johan Cruyff’s Ajax, Franz Beckenbauer’s Bayern Munich and Brian Clough’s Nottingham Forest in the ’70s and Milan in the ’90s.

Manager Luis Enrique, who also led Barcelona to 2014-15 Champions League glory, can yet join Zidane, Pep Guardiola and Bob Paisley as a three-time winner (though he still has a way to go to match Carlo Ancelotti’s five titles). And he has sprinkled his French champions with more than enough stardust to make it happen – just look at their insane 5-4 win over Bayern in last month’s first semi-final leg.

Yet both this Spaniard and the other Spaniard in the opposing dugout know this decider at the Puskas Arena will not play out like last year’s semi-final tie. PSG won both of those legs – 1-0 at the Emirates and 2-1 at the Parc de Princes – but Arsenal are much changed since then. Yes, they are still underdogs, but having that Premier League title in their back pocket is going to make a huge difference to the way this defensively peerless team to approach a truly formidable attack.

Arsenal have evolved under Arteta from a wonderful-but-inconsistent attacking style to too defensive-minded, and emerged this season with the right balance between the two. Through this evolution, and smart recruitment and retention, they have also become more versatile. And they meet PSG a year on with new knowledge of how to win in different ways.

A great example is to set plays. I don’t think when Arteta began his journey as a manager he would have anticipated a league-winning campaign that relied so much on set plays. But the fact is they are dangerous at them, and making them count could get them over the line.

Then there are the battles within the battles. Will Arsenal try to run down PSG in numbers and leave themselves short at the back? Or will PSG play around them easily and force them to drop back and see how it goes? Arsenal have proved themselves comfortable without the ball throughout their undefeated run this tournament.

They will also know that PSG lost two league-stage games – against Bayern Munich and Sporting – with more than 70 per cent possession. Note, too, that fullbacks Hakimi and Mendes get forward a lot, and Arsenal have been superb at winning the ball back and hitting on the counter.

It’s also worth consideration that these two sides met a third time in last year’s tournament, and that Arsenal won that October 2024 league-stage encounter 2-0. However, that occurred at the Emirates, and PSG were missing their X-factor.

Usman Dembele was left completely out of that squad, but played the two semi-final legs. That is a psychological advantage. If Dembele is fit to play in this final, it will also be a literal advantage. Because, for me, the Ballon d’Or winner is the protagonist who tilts an otherwise tight match-up in PSG’s favour.

Both teams boast wonderful players. For Arsenal I am talking about Eberichi Eze, Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice, Martin Zubimendi and Gabriel (who missed both legs of last year’s semi-final). For PSG it’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Achraf Hakimi, Nuno Mendes, Vitinha, Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doue, Bradley Barcola and Joao Neves.

But Dembele has been PSG’s difference-maker for the past two years. Enrique has found a way to get through to him in a way many frustrated people at Barcelona could not. This could be Dembele’s final. Then he might be in the frame for a World Cup win with France. Maybe after that a second successive Ballon d’Or.

So I think Paris will win. It won’t be easy, but they will make it happen. However, Dembele is the caveat. If his injury scare stops him from starting, I will switch my tip to Arsenal – which probably means they’ll have to shut down London for a couple of days.

Mark Bosnich is a Stan Sport analyst and former Socceroo.

Watch the UEFA Champions League final live and on demand, with extended pre-game coverage streaming on Stan Sport from 1:00am AEST Sunday 31 May.