The biggest myth about EVs is dying and sales are surging

One of the biggest reasons Australians have steered clear of electric cars – the fear that an ageing battery will die and cost a fortune to replace – is being undercut by a growing body of evidence that modern packs last far longer than early owners were warned.

Battery electric vehicles took nearly one in four of all new cars sold in June – up from 7.6 per cent a year earlier – according to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries and the Electric Vehicle Council. More than 32,500 were delivered in a month that set an all-time national sales record.

Much of that jump was driven by this year’s fuel shock rather than any change of heart about the cars, and industry experts say the durability evidence is what could convert the surge into lasting confidence.

Hussein Dia, professor of future urban mobility at Swinburne University, said the experience of Australian owners lined up with international evidence that modern batteries were proving more durable than many expected a decade ago.

“Advances in battery chemistry, thermal management and battery management systems mean most owners are experiencing only modest battery degradation over many years of driving,” Dia said, adding that batteries were likely to last well beyond the typical ownership period.

He has pointed to Stanford University research showing the stop-start way people drive can prolong battery life by up to 38 per cent compared with the constant-discharge cycles used in laboratory tests. Telematics data from 10,000 vehicles in a 2024 study by Geotab found newer EVs lose about 1.8 per cent of their capacity a year – down from 2.3 per cent in 2019 – while a separate analysis of 7000 heavily driven EVs found most held more than 80 per cent of their capacity beyond 200,000 kilometres.

The range picture is less flattering. Independent testing by the Australian Automobile Association has found no EV matches the driving range on its windscreen sticker. The shortfall looks alarming against the outdated NEDC standard some brands still use, where the BYD Atto 3 came in about 20 per cent short, but it narrows against the more realistic WLTP figure now being made mandatory, where the same car missed by under 5 per cent. Across the association’s latest round, WLTP shortfalls ran between about 5 and 11 per cent.

Dia’s own national study, published in February, put the average real-world shortfall for battery electric vehicles about 16 per cent. “That difference reflects driving conditions, speed, weather and terrain rather than battery degradation,” he said.

Aside from Australia’s well-documented issues with building a reliable public charging network, battery replacement cost is the other lingering worry. Most EVs sold in Australia carry an eight-year or 160,000-kilometre battery warranty, and a full out-of-warranty replacement can still run into five figures.

That full replacement is becoming a worst-case scenario, however. Modern EV batteries are increasingly modular, meaning specialised mechanics can often identify and replace a single faulty cell or module for a fraction of the cost of a whole new pack. Even when a battery eventually degrades beyond its usefulness on the road, it isn’t destined for landfill. Those degraded packs are finding valuable “second lives” as stationary energy storage for homes and the grid or are being stripped down by specialised recyclers to recover precious metals such as lithium and cobalt.

Charging habits matter, too. Dia said frequent DC fast-charging leads to faster degradation, especially in hot weather, and he recommended keeping a battery between 20 and 80 per cent of its capacity and avoiding extreme temperatures to extend its life.

For the growing second-hand market, that is turning battery health into the new used-car question. Motoring group RACV has urged buyers of used EVs to check battery health, warranty status and software support before committing.

The Electric Vehicle Council said the cars were winning on their merits. “Electric vehicles are now competing head to head with Australia’s legacy manufacturers, and winning because they’re cheaper to run, there are more models to choose from than ever before, and they’re better to drive,” chief executive Julie Delvecchio said.

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