Source : Perth Now news
A political expert says the Victorian Labor Party is following a tried and tested recipe for election disaster following the sensational axing of Jacinta Allan by her own deputy Ben Carroll this week.
Mr Carroll is now tasked with steering his embattled colleagues at an election in just four months, and with the resignation of two influential frontbench MPs on Thursday, the task seems to only be getting more difficult.
Every effort made by an incumbent Victorian government or hopeful opposition to throw out a leader before an election in the past two decades has resulted in an election loss, and experts say Mr Carroll will be hard pressed to rewrite the rules of history.
Lessons from history
Monash University political scientist Zareh Ghazarian said Labor’s decision to axe their leader puts them in a “vulnerable position” as it tries to secure a fourth straight term on November 28.
“The formula of changing leaders midstream or prior to an election doesn’t seem to be a recipe for success,” Dr Ghazarian said.
“It’s a very difficult position for Labor to be in at the moment.
“It was always going to be very hard.
“They have won three elections in a row and been in power for almost 12 years, and generally parties tend to run out of puff.”
Dr Ghazarian pointed towards examples from past Victorian governments as historical evidence of Labor’s dire position.
“Steve Bracks resigned in 2007 and he gave way to John Brumby, who was unable to win the 2010 election,” he said.
There was a change of leadership midstream, and Labor wasn’t successful.
“If we look at (then Liberal leader) Ted Baillieu, he became premier in 2010 and resigned in 2013.
“He was succeeded by Dennis Napthine, and he couldn’t win the 2014 election.
“It’s not a successful formula for a political party.”
On Tuesday, News 24 panellists discussed the likelihood of Labor success during live coverage of Mr Carroll’s induction as premier.
The conversation shifted towards historical examples of Labor victories in the aftermath of a leadership spill.
Bob Hawke’s famous victory after ousting Bill Hayden as Labor leader just one month before the 1983 federal election was floated, but News 24 political editor Andrew Clennell quickly shut down any attempts to compare the two leaders.
“Ben Carroll is not Bob Hawke,” he said.
Fresh start or false start?
Dr Ghazarian said understanding whether Mr Carroll would be able to make himself comfortable as state leader largely depended on Jess Wilson’s re-energised Liberal Party.
“Part of the story about Victorian Labor has to be linked to what’s been going on in the opposition,” he said.
“For a very long time, the Victorian opposition has been disunited.
“There have been divisions over personnel, divisions over policy, divisions between more socially progressive and conservative Liberals, and that’s all spilt out into the public arena.
“They’ve appeared, for many of the past few years, to be divided.
“In contrast, Labor has been looking really, really organisationally strong until, of course, the last few days.”
Despite the Opposition having undergone its own leadership spill just eight months ago,
Ms Wilson’s allies were quick to capitalise on Tuesday’s chaos as parliament returned for its first sitting day after the winter break.
Coalition MPs took every opportunity to frame Mr Carroll as a deceptive, power-hungry usurper, filling the Legislative Assembly with jeers and insults as House Speaker Maree Edwards desperately tried to rein in the antics.
Shadow Attorney-General James Newbury wasted no time, opening the day by calling Ms Allan’s resignation an “unprecedented knifing of a sitting premier”.
“The former premier was not even afforded a seat in this chamber after the coup this morning … therefore, I presume we don’t have a ministry,” Mr Newbury said.
“No one would know because this government has fallen apart.”
At the beginning of question time, Ms Wilson asked Mr Carroll how Victorians could trust him when he “can’t even be honest with his own daughter” following comments he made about supporting Ms Allan as premier shortly before the leadership spill.
Mr Carroll responded by referring to a “change of circumstances”, which he also made note of seven times while fielding similar questions from journalists earlier in the day.
Ben Carroll struggles to explain why what he’ll tell his daughter after previously claiming he told her he was proud to support Jacinta Allan
‘I am not Dan Andrews. I am not Jacinta Allan’
During his inaugural speech as Premier, Mr Carroll deliberately distanced himself from his two Labor predecessors – Dan Andrews and Jacinta Allan.
But Dr Ghazarian said he needed to “start developing rapport” with Victorians if he wanted a meaningful shot at keeping his job.
“The sense was that Jacinta Allan was essentially a continuation of the Dan Andrews years, and here we’re seeing what seems to be more of a clean break,” Dr Ghazarian said.
“We know that he’s in favour of a royal commission (into unions and the construction industry), for example, which was something that Jacinta Allan resisted as premier.
“He has, in the past, reportedly had a stronger view on crime in Victoria, and I think those are the sorts of things that we will see him really try and talk about.
“Not only does it differentiate him from previous leaders, but it also aligns him more with what we’re seeing in opinion polls and community expectations.”
The Victorian state election will be held on November 28.
