Hastie signals he might lose, hopes One Nation will preference him

Rising Liberal star Andrew Hastie says he hopes to receive One Nation preferences at the next election after acknowledging his own “political mortality” – despite previously vowing to never bend the knee to Pauline Hanson.

The apparent change of tune has reinvigorated a conversation about how closely the Coalition and One Nation should cooperate, with Nationals leader Matt Canavan leaving the door open to early preference deals on Monday, but acting Liberal leader Jane Hume saying that’s a discussion for closer to the next poll.

One Nation is expected to establish an arm in Hastie’s Western Australian electorate of Canning this week after vowing to run a strong candidate against the Liberal frontbencher.

Hastie said on Tuesday he was not worried, while conceding the result would be in the hands of an electorate that handed a 6.8 per cent swing to the One Nation candidate at the 2025 election.

“Everyone who comes in this job has to have a sense of their political mortality, and if this is the end, this is the end. You do your best, and it’s up to the Australian people,” Hastie told News 24, formerly Sky News.

One Nation’s leadership has targeted the former SAS soldier after he gave evidence in Ben Roberts-Smith’s failed defamation action against this masthead. The minor party has shown support for Roberts-Smith ahead of his upcoming war crimes trial.

Hastie has in turn been leading the Coalition charge against One Nation as the minor party eats into the opposition’s right flank.

But on Tuesday, Hastie said past comments in which he declared war on One Nation and said he would rather be “taken out in a box than bend the knee to One Nation” only applied to a formal coalition agreement, not a preference deal.

“We’re in a two-party preferred system, so preferences matter. Labor receives preferences from the Greens, and I’d hope we’d receive preferences from One Nation,” Hastie said.

“I’ve always enjoyed preference flows from One Nation in previous elections. That’s not changed. The question is, do I want to go into a formal partnership with them? And the answer to that is no … I believe in the Liberal Party, and I want to win government and have a Liberal government.”

Hastie said he was cultivating his relationship with former One Nation candidate Fernando Bove because “you’ve got to work with people for their preferences”. One Nation is yet to announce its Canning candidate for the next federal election.

Hastie claimed the minor party had successfully identified public grievance with immigration numbers and high inflation when asked which of One Nation’s positions he agreed with.

Hastie’s comments echoed Nationals’ leader Matt Canavan – another strident critic of One Nation – who on Monday said the Coalition was obliged to work with any party to turf Labor out.

“Changing the seat of Canning won’t change the government. To change the government, we have to win seats off Labor,” he told News 24.

The Coalition has been battling to present a unified front on how to handle the resurgent minor party after a series of conflicting messages from MPs, most recently when frontbencher Andrew Bragg said it would be pragmatic to form government with One Nation if that’s how the numbers fell.

Deputy Liberal leader Jane Hume on Tuesday ruled out a merger.

“Never under my watch will there be a coalition between the Liberal Party and One Nation,” Hume told the Today show.

“Preferences are always a discussion that occurs just before an election. Once we know who the candidates are, once we know what the policies are, and it doesn’t really matter what party we’re talking about, we’ll always deal with discussions about preferences just before an election.”

One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce said Hastie was simply being logical, and claimed he had been having conversations with unnamed Coalition MPs about the “bleeding obvious” need for preference swaps.

“The sobriety of reality will dawn on people. You’ve got the socialist side and you’ve got the conservative side. If you want the conservatives to win, then conservatives back conservatives,” the former Nationals leader said.

“You can make a statement about who you are by who you put second.”

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