The new Wallabies coach has copped an early hospital pass

Les Kiss’ first Test as Wallabies coach could easily turn into the shocker in Osaka.

The heat and humidity they are likely to encounter is one factor, but aside from that, Japan are a competitive Test side underpinned by an improving domestic competition filled with high-quality coaches from around the world.

The Brave Blossoms were messed around by Ireland’s recent refusal to travel to Japan in the Nations Championship, but they have won the scheduling battle for this two-Test series against the Wallabies.

Kiss would have copped the odd hospital pass as a player. Now, as a coach, he’s got a high ball well above his shoulders with Eddie Jones steaming in from 20 metres away.

The Wallabies could lose this Test. The bar for success in Kiss’ debut as coach is a win of any nature: get the job done and get out of there.

It is a Test with a high-risk profile, and Kiss was never going to be able to fully mitigate that risk, no matter how he selected his team.

However, his 23-man squad and the make-up of the bench have increased the likelihood of Japan getting away to the fast start they desperately want.

Josh Canham and Miles Amatosero are a young pairing, and they will face Warner Dearns, the best second-rower in Super Rugby Pacific this season, while prop Aidan Ross is more solid than spectacular and certainly won’t offer the same mobility around the field as Angus Bell.

Jones has prioritised speed from the outset, preferring Jack Cornelsen in the second row ahead of Harry Hockings, and Amatosero is going to be tested by the speed of the game if Japan get the quick ball they want.

Clearly, the Wallabies’ strategy is to finish the Test strongly with their stacked bench, but they won’t want to be chasing the game with the combative Hockings and that old warrior Michael Leitch providing serious nuisance value off the bench for Jones.

The Wallabies must have considered the opposite approach – trying to overwhelm the Japanese early. That is something the French did well in June.

Japan probably don’t even know themselves what a good side they are, but their self-belief will soar if they start well and exert scoreboard pressure on the Wallabies.

A Japan XV side put themselves in a great position against the Maori All Blacks in late June, racing into a 24-7 lead at halftime during their game in Nagoya, before that lack of self-belief kicked in. They were chased down and lost 38-31.

But they will have learnt something from that defeat and young No.10 Ryunosuke Ito probably banked some valuable lessons as he continues his crash-course introduction to Test rugby.

The other player to look for is Japan No.6 Ben Gunter, who is on a big collision course with Wallaby Rob Valetini. Gunter, who grew up in Australia, has arguably the biggest shoulders in Test rugby and is not afraid to use them.

He has snuck under the radar this week with all the focus on Hockings, but Gunter is the better player. He is an old-fashioned hitman who will also be lining up Harry Wilson if the Wallabies captain comes off the back fence.

The Jones factor is also inescapable, and the former Wallabies coach will have some clear views on how and where Kiss’s side can be vulnerable.

But it’s a factor that is easy to overplay in a rugby world in which the degrees of separation between Australian rugby and Japan are decreasing anyway.

For example, new Wallabies defence coach Scott McLeod almost won the Japan Rugby League One title in June (against Dave Rennie’s Kobe) as an assistant at Kubota Spears.

In a classic clash of styles, Kubota employed a kicking and defence-based game plan, using the tactical nous of new/old Waratahs No.10 Bernard Foley.

Against Rennie’s ball-in-hand style – and Kobe superstar Ardie Savea – it almost worked too: Kubota might have won the game but for a knock-on by former Crusaders halfback Bryn Hall with the tryline in sight.

That decider was a good showcase for the tactical variety and physicality of the Japanese game, and their players are increasingly well-prepared for the demands of Test rugby.

Kiss, therefore, has been handed a tricky first assignment – and if he marks it with a victory, it is a bigger positive than he will get credit for.

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