The art of the deal: Victoria to pay millions more than host cities overseas to bring NFL to Melbourne

Victorians could pay up to 11 times more than other international host cities to bring American football to Melbourne next month after beating NSW and Western Australia for the sporting privilege.

The state government announced in February last year that it had secured Australia’s first-ever in-season NFL game, signing a “two-plus-one” multi-year contract – two confirmed games over four years, with the possibility of a third. Sports Minister Steve Dimopoulos has called the deal “one of the biggest returns on investments Victoria has ever seen”.

However, figures obtained by this masthead suggest Victoria is expected to pay between $10 million and $15 million per NFL game, substantially higher than what was paid for matches to be held in Germany and Brazil.

Speaking in parliament earlier this year, shadow industry minister Richard Welch put the cost at $15 million a game – a figure that aligns with what the NSW government said the NFL put to it, according to a source familiar with negotiations who spoke to The Australian Financial Review last year – which would see the state spend $45 million in a three-game scenario.

The government has not confirmed or denied this figure, but comments made by Dimopoulos in a recent podcast interview indicate it is in the ballpark. Referencing the commercial benefits of the deal, he told the Armchair Experts podcast last month: “If you were to buy that advertising on digital and media right across the world, [it would be] over $32 million. Now that’s well and truly a great head start to our investment”.

If $32 million is a great head start to covering Victoria’s investment, the total amount spent is likely to be higher. However, if one assumes that figure as an absolute minimum, and divides it by three games – though only two are currently assured – Victoria must be paying at least $10.6 million per game.

When this masthead contacted Dimopoulos to confirm these figures, a spokesperson said all financial details were commercial in confidence and could not be discussed.

By comparison, the German city of Frankfurt paid just $1.3 million a game, while Berlin paid $7.4 million, and Sao Paolo in Brazil paid $7.5 million. The only overseas host to pay more than Victoria was Ireland, which paid $17.8 million for a single game in Dublin.

A spokesperson for Berlin’s department of sport estimated the NFL was contributing about $78.5 million of its own money to take the put on the games in the German capital. The department spokesperson and a spokesperson for the Frankfurt mayor’s office said no additional financing for the events had been provided by the German federal government to either city. Sao Paulo’s municipal government did not respond in time for deadline clarifying whether the federal government had contributed funds.

In Ireland, a government spokesperson confirmed it had approved an allocation of up to $17.8 million to host a single game in Dublin last year, and said the investment had covered the licence fee, infrastructure works, security, transport services, city-activation events and a once-off contribution to venue-related costs.

When this masthead put the public spending estimates to the NFL and asked why Victoria is set to pay significantly more per game than other international host cities, a spokesperson for the league did not dispute the figures, saying only it did not comment on financial matters.

“The NFL has a growing presence in Australia and is committed to investing in the development of the game year-round,” the spokesperson said. “Through grassroots participation including our national flag football program, youth development, strategic partnerships, and now the historic first-ever regular-season NFL game being played at the MCG this September, Australia represents a key market in the league’s global expansion plans.”

There is no doubt there is significant appetite for the game to come to Melbourne, with 100,000 fans expected to turn out to watch the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers at the MCG.

When the game was announced, more than 151,000 people registered interest, and the first tranche of tickets sold out in less than half an hour.

All four foreign hosts said the economic benefits of hosting the games far eclipsed the amount they had spent on them, with net profits estimated to be between $90 million and $190 million per game.

While that will likely be the case in Victoria, the higher government input could reduce the expected return on investment.

Germany and Brazil have more-proven NFL markets. However expanding the sport to new markets is a key tenet of the league’s long-term strategy, and Australia has long been in its purview.

NSW had previously been considered the most likely candidate to host the NFL’s Australian debut due to its sizeable fan base and ties to current players, such as former Rabbitoh-turned-Philadelphia Eagle Jordan Mailata. It was also the only state to have hosted an exhibition game in 1999, and was later assessed to host another pre-season match-up, according to the NFL’s former executive vice president of international Mark Waller, though plans were ultimately dropped.

The NFL visited sites in 2024 and met representatives across various states, with NSW, Victoria and WA on the ultimate shortlist. States were given about three months to put together a proposal that covered hosting rights, investments, value-in-kind contributions, venue hire, and stadium operations. In October of that year, representatives from each state flew to London for a meeting to discuss their respective bids.

When Victoria was confirmed as the winning host city, NSW Premier Chris Minns described the NFL’s asking price as “a king’s ransom”.

“We said no, it was just too expensive,” Minns said. “I’ve got a lot of pull on the government dollar – I didn’t have enough for the NFL game. I can only speak to my government’s priorities and where we spend your money, your tax money. We have to spend it wisely.”

Dimopoulos has on multiple occasions said then-premier Jacinta Allan was eager to secure the deal, while NFL commissioner Roger Goodell commended her for having “the vision and the strength and the leadership to convince us this was the right place to play” – suggesting Victoria was chasing the league, not the other way around.

Speaking in Melbourne this year, Goodell said the money offered was not as important as Victoria’s strong record in major events.

“This community knows how to do big events,” he said in April. “They’re pros, and we felt very comfortable that they were going to deliver not just what they said but everything that was necessary to make this event successful.”

Goodell also cited the size and “tremendous reputation” of the MCG as another key factor in choosing Melbourne.

Mark Waller, who laid the groundwork for the NFL’s international expansion, said Melbourne’s wider infrastructure – including public transport, accommodation and the proximity of the stadium to the CBD – was also likely to have played a part.

It is a massive, tightly run logistical exercise for all involved. A local security company, which did not want to be named due to the sensitivity of corporate dealings with the NFL, said the league was bringing over its own security detail – although the Victorian government said there would still be security jobs created here.

On game day, fans will be required to bring their belongings in clear bags – per NFL policy in the US. Local company HG Turf will be under the pump to get the pitch set up and packed away between AFL games – a final is potentially on the cards for the MCG the following day.

In a statement provided on Monday, a spokesperson for the sports minister’s office said the NFL partnership had been transformational for Victoria, and a rise in visits by Americans and hotel bookings had already been recorded.

“The September game will be beamed live to millions of US viewers during prime time, delivering significant economic returns through the $239 million American visitors spend annually in Victoria and attracting record interest from international fans and business leaders,” the spokesperson said.

“Our multi-year NFL partnership is cementing Victoria’s status as Australia’s major events capital, with Delta Airlines now offering three new direct flights per week from Los Angeles, creating year-round tourism growth and business opportunities.

“This multi-year partnership is creating hundreds of jobs across Victoria – from security and hospitality to transport co-ordination and event management. The vast majority of staff delivering the game and surrounding fan activities will be local workers contracted by the MCG and MOPT [Melbourne and Olympic Parks Trust], supporting Victorian jobs and businesses throughout the event.”

The NFL’s media team has been restrictive in its communications. An interview previously organised between this masthead and the NFL’s Asia-Pacific head, Brett Gosper, was cancelled. A reason for the cancellation was not provided.

A lot is on the line for the American sports giant. If it can grow a loyal fan base in Australia, it will unlock significant potential earnings from media broadcast rights, sponsorships and merchandise deals.

It is also seeking to grow flag football, handing out kits to every school in Victoria, as it looks to cement the non-contact sport on the global stage, including ensuring it remains in the 2032 Brisbane Olympics after its debut in the 2028 LA Games.

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