Coalition wants to bring migration down to lowest level since Global Financial Crisis

The Coalition wants to bring migration down to its lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis, and is preparing to argue that visas for students, graduates and backpackers must be cut so that housing construction can keep pace with inflows of new arrivals.

Opposition housing spokesman Senator Andrew Bragg will on Wednesday reveal the Coalition will seek to take net overseas migration levels under 180,000 people per year on average – a target that is 45,000 lower than Labor’s short-term forecasts, and 120,000 below last year’s intake.

The new detail on the heated question of net overseas migration, also known as NOM, will inject fresh energy into the debate over optimum migration levels and how to achieve them amid public concern that immigration has been too high since the pandemic.

“Lifting migration standards, and analysing them carefully each year, is crucial to ensure integrity and public trust in our migration settings,” Bragg will tell the National Press Club on Wednesday.

“We are a great country and we want the most capable people to make Australia their home, people who will subscribe to our great institutions, cultural norms and our English language.”

The political debate has shifted this year as support for One Nation has soared, with both Labor and the Coalition taking steps to articulate their migration plans in more detail. One Nation’s policy for 130,000 visas doesn’t go into specifics, and could lead to negative or zero net migration.

Labor last week pulled a keynote on immigration policy by Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke, who was due to tell the press club how the government would lower net migration from 300,000 today to 225,000 within the next two years.

Burke planned to reveal a crackdown on asylum seeker rights, family visa applicants and working holidaymakers to help Labor reach those targets, but several cabinet colleagues thought it was too rushed and needed finessing.

Cabinet sources said the plan was not revisited at this week’s Monday cabinet meeting, and the government was still working through the social and economic trade-offs.

The migration system has been largely demand-driven for the last two decades. Sources on both sides of politics privately concede that net migration won’t get any lower without more drastic changes.

Some parts of the migration system will remain outside the government’s control, such as the soaring number of New Zealanders and British backpackers, because they moved to Australia under free trade agreements that stipulate numbers cannot be capped.

But that creates impetus for tighter controls in other parts of the visa system – such as working backpackers, international students, graduate visas, refugees and skilled visas.

Bragg will argue that it is possible to find deep cuts in a short time. “A NOM reduction on this scale is manageable and in line with reductions we have managed in recent history,” he will say.

“For example, in 2009-10 when NOM declined from 300,000 to 175,000 in around 18 months.”

That surge and fall, however, came after the Global Financial Crisis, as Australians living abroad rushed home and the government cut tens of thousands of skilled migrant places to save local jobs in the economic downturn.

Australia last averaged net migration levels between 180,000 and 200,000 between 2014 and 2016. Before that, net migration levels were last consistently below 180,000 under the Howard government.

Labor has sought to discredit the Coalition on migration by pointing out the opposition has not been willing to name which parts of the migration system it wanted to cut.

In a sign the debate has shifted, Bragg will name family visas, international students, working holidaymakers and post-study work visas as areas for “modest reductions”.

At the same time, he wants to bring in a higher share of skilled migrant workers linked to jobs that meet Australian industry needs, such as construction.

The NSW senator, who is a moderate, said last year that the Coalition’s chances were damaged at the 2025 election when the public thought the opposition blamed migrants for the housing crisis.

To explain the target, Bragg will say that Australia’s population increased by 1.8 million people since mid-2022, 1.5 million of whom came through net overseas migration.

However, dwelling stock in that time increased by 550,000 – under census assumptions that each dwelling hosts 2.6 people, this leaves a shortfall of 130,000 dwellings for about 340,000 people.

“If we win, each year the connection between migration and housing will be reported on to ensure that housing stock and related completions can support the annual migration intake,” Bragg will say.

“The specific shortfall relating to housing created under Labor can be closed over the Budget forward estimates period by averaging a NOM of under 180,000.”

Bragg will also explain plans for cutting back the National Construction Code to speed up housing supply.

With Paul Sakkal

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.