A storm is brewing south of Perth, and it ain’t the weather

Many voters who visited the early polling booth in Port Kennedy, 47 kilometres south of Perth, on Thursday were forced to drive through two massive puddles in the car park – evidence of the heavy rain the suburb experienced the day before.

But it’s not the weather that has made this Secret Harbour byelection one of the most intriguing in Western Australia’s recent history – it’s the political storm that has engulfed the sleepy coastal electorate.

The surge of One Nation in successive polls this year, and the party’s lower house success in the South Australian election earlier this year, has turned Secret Harbour into a genuine three-way contest between Pauline Hanson’s party, Labor and the Liberals.

As an outer suburban seat where One Nation is hoping to pull votes from the major parties, it will also be a litmus test for the 2028 federal election, with politicians including Canning Liberal MP Andrew Hastie and Labor’s federal Resources Minister Madeleine King to watch the result carefully.

Saturday’s byelection was triggered by the resignation of long-serving member and former corrective services minister Paul Papalia in July.

The seat has gone through many boundary and name changes over the years, but one constant is Labor’s grip on the region, which remains working class, aspirational and firmly in Perth’s mortgage belt.

Common gripes from voters include the failure to deliver the promised Karnup train station, cost of living, and housing.

One Nation’s candidate, 39-year-old gym franchise owner Luke Herdegen, says federal Labor’s management of immigration has made housing and cost of living worse, and he’s confident he’ll be the beneficiary of a large protest vote against the Commonwealth and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

“Immigration is definitely starting to manifest as a homelessness problem because of the lack of housing, and it ties into the infrastructure,” he said.

“There’s some local issues down here as well with local infrastructure just not being delivered.

“Labor have held this seat down here for nearly 100 years, like the whole area, so they just haven’t invested the money, and people are feeling neglected.”

Labor’s candidate Georgia Tree currently works for Woodside in government relations, and was previously a staffer to Resources Minister Madeleine King.

Tree agreed that cost of living was regularly brought up with her during her team’s extensive doorknocking campaign, but insisted WA Labor had a good story to tell with recent policies including the party’s $100 fuel support payment and flat $2.80 public transport fares.

“Of course people are feeling the pinch, and it’s easier to blame incumbent governments, but I think a lot of people, when you do speak to them and tease it out a bit, they’re happy with what WA Labor is delivering, and also people know it’s a global inflation crisis,” she said.

“People actually differentiate between the WA Labor brand and the rest of the country as well, so I’ve got a strong story to tell when it comes to that.”

The Liberals’ candidate, former submariner Ryan Robertson, is also acutely aware of the sentiment on the ground, and constituents had told him they were going to park their votes with One Nation to send a message federally.

“There are some people and some voters that have said, ‘hey, I want the people federally to start hearing what we’re feeling here on the ground’,” he said.

Robertson’s pitch is that he is in the exact position families in Secret Harbour feel themselves in.

“I’m a father of three daughters, and I’m not immune to any of the stresses that we’re all equally going through,” he said.

“Whether it’s rent, whether it’s the increase in interest rates to our mortgages, or whether or not it’s just going to the shops and feeling that pinch every time we just try and get the basic fundamentals like food and water.”

The byelection’s uniqueness is evident at the pre-poll booth, which opened with a bang on August 17 with all parties reporting One Nation flyers were being snapped up feverishly.

One Nation volunteers have been dishing out hats to visitors and music has been pumping while the presence of a record 16 candidates at the booth has added to the air of chaos.

The stream of voters had slowed to a trickle by Thursday, but so far about 16,200 votes from 36,407 eligible electors have been received at the early voting booth or via post.

The campaign has been littered with controversies.

A day after Herdegen was announced as One Nation’s candidate, social media posts from 2019 emerged of him admitting to cocaine use.

At the time, he said it was a story he’d put out there to inspire people to live happier lives, and it wasn’t an issue in the campaign.

Tree was also involved in some awkward press conferences that were shut down before she could talk, and her employment with Woodside has been targeted by Disrupt Burrup Hub activists.

She said the appropriateness of her job and her tilt at parliament wasn’t an issue in Secret Harbour, where many voters had connections to the resources sector.

“We’re a democracy, and people have their views. It has not come up on the doors for me,” she said.

“In fact, if it has come up, it’s been in a positive way because people understand that gas is going to be needed to 2050 and beyond.

“I think there are sections online and a lot of noise on social media, but I don’t think a lot of those people live in this area.”

The campaign has also seen the Liberals turn the guns on each other, with Hastie taking to the Australian Financial Review and ABC’s 7.30 to lament the effort his state colleagues had put into the campaign, responding to comments from Zempilas that any loss for Labor – to either the Liberals or One Nation – would be a win for the state.

Hastie reiterated those comments on the ABC’s 7.30 on Monday night and said he disapproved of Zempilas’ strategy.

On Thursday, Zempilas, who was joined by several state Liberal colleagues and senior WA Liberal Senator Michaelia Cash, defended his party’s efforts on the ground.

“I’m very proud of that. I’ve been hugely proud to get in behind the best candidate in this byelection,” he said.

Zempilas said there was clearly a moment happening in politics with One Nation’s popularity.

“We know that, and we can see that. And I think everybody has reflected that in their reporting and their observations,” he said.

Cash said Hastie was entitled to his opinion, but she backed the campaign efforts.

“For me, very much. I’m also out here on the ground. I listen to people. I absolutely agree with Basil,” she said.

“This is about Roger Cook and Labor and Anthony Albanese and Labor, we’re in dead red territory.”

WA Premier Roger Cook said byelections were “funny beasts” and derided the “war of toxic and poisonous debate” coming from the east coast and One Nation.

“They throw up a whole range of issues. People know in this instance that the future of the government doesn’t ride on their vote, and so they consider a range of other things,” he said.