Despite declining fertility, Gen Z do want kids – but two things are holding them back

Most young Australians are still interested in having children — despite what the nation’s steep decline in fertility rates suggests — but their family plans are affected by their worry about the future.

The most obvious barrier, tough economic times leading to unaffordable housing, is not what they see as their greatest hurdle.

Instead, in a longitudinal study of about 8000 people in Generation Z, half of those aged 19-20 years old and half aged 23-24 said lack of trust in public institutions and concerns for the climate were influencing their thoughts on becoming parents, but this had not put them off intending to do so.

Australia’s birth rate hit an all-time low in 2024, but data from the Australian Institute of Family Studies’ Growing Up in Australia longitudinal study found 71 per cent of young people in both groups hope to have children, and only 17 per cent say they do not want them; 13 per cent said they had not yet considered it.

Study lead Kirsten Campbell said young people were showing a strong interest in forming families, but social cohesion, environmental degradation and trust in public institutions such as hospitals, police, education, legal and social welfare systems were affecting their choices.

Those with higher trust in such social structures (79 per cent) were more likely to hope for children compared with those who trusted such supports less (59 per cent).

“Overall, the story of the data shows there is still a strong interest in forming families, but what they look like is different, and those families are being formed later,” she said. “What’s driving whether their hope is translated into concrete intentions is … trust in the future state of the world.”

Campbell said the researchers were surprised by this finding, as they were expecting economic stress was going to be the key influence in young people’s family intentions and projected decision-making. “The economy’s always tough, money is always tough [for young people] but what is really driving their translation of intentions is trust and hope for the future, and ‘Is this a world I would like to bring my children into?’”

Almost all young people were worried about the future economy (79 per cent), but these concerns were not linked to whether young people hoped to have children or not. The study is following the cohort though the life course, and this data is from wave 10 of the findings.

About two-thirds of the Gen Z subjects were concerned about the environment (65 per cent), but those who were less concerned about it were more likely to want children.

Young women were generally more concerned about the future, and had less trust in institutions, than young men, which Campbell said was likely because women believed they would need support from systems including health and childcare when they became mothers.

Women still assumed the bulk of the parenting load would fall to them, so they felt they needed to have trust in the “social fabric” around them to assist. Young people said their family intentions were distant, and would not be put into action within five years.

“They are starting later, and that affects the number of children they could hope to have,” Campbell said. “Most people are looking at the ‘one and done’, or two – we are not seeing a lot of people aspiring for those larger families.”

The report suggests that supporting young people to achieve their family goals may require more than economic policy alone, including attention to social trust and inclusion as well as climate action, and the broader conditions that shape confidence in the future.

Institute director Liz Neville said the research highlighted the importance of young people having faith in social structures, and of “the broader social compact between families and the institutions that serve them”.

Patterns of mothers’ workforce participation and division of family and caring responsibilities at home remained relatively static, said Newcastle University lecturer Dr Sheree Gregory, co-author of the 2026 book, Motherhood, Labour and Care in the 21st Century, and young women realised that this meant they would carry most of the impact of child-rearing.

“Young women are probably not seeing many creative solutions; it comes down to valuing care … there is still a lack of flexibility, they are probably seeing a lack of autonomy and control [for working mothers] and it’s looking quite challenging,” Gregory said.

The knowledge that caring for children is still seen mainly as mothers’ work, and is still undervalued by society may also be influencing young women’s family choice.

“The [Australian] household is quite consistent in expectations and norms around parenting and care, and who does the care – not just for infants but also elder care or care for family members who at any time in life might need help,” Gregory said. “It’s very gendered and quite consistent.”

Teaching student and youth advocate Scarlet Lee said young women around her were highly career-focused and determined to put their educations to use in full work lives.

“I am quite married to my work, I have two jobs and volunteer as Youth Governor of Victoria,” says Lee, who helped to platform the views and priorities of her generational peers in the state’s Youth Parliament of 2026.

Lee aspires to eventually become a school principal, but alongside the lofty ambitions of Gen Z, young women also value having the choice whether to become mothers.

“It still does factor in a little bit that women feel the pressure of having to choose between a successful career or to start a family,” Lee said. “Young women now are very aware they do have a choice.”

Housing is definitely still a concern for Generation Z: “Across the board, young people are very aware of the cost of living and there being a big disparity between how accessible things were in the past compared with the present.”

Like Campbell, Lee said their peers were aware of gender roles in parenting – “norms that women are meant to be the home-makers and raise the children, and men’s work is seen as more valuable” – but their generation considered these to be no longer as relevant as they once were.

The Australian Institute of Family Studies data found concerns about housing affordability were widespread (85 per cent), irrespective of young people’s plans to have children. Among young people most worried about the global economy, or finding work, nearly one in five (19 per cent) did not expect to have children – particularly young women.

“Often young women now know what they want for themselves, and they’re very aware of how they want their future to look: they are quite discerning in the partners they choose and the roles they choose to play in a relationship,” Lee said.

“You can find wholeness in a career and social connections – and having a family – [but] a woman’s worth isn’t defined by her ability to start a family, it is not the sole source of fulfillment.”

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