Source : NEW INDIAN EXPRESS NEWS
Ukraine hopes for sanctions, while Russia stalls
Since March, Zelenskyy has made a point of showing Ukraine’s willingness to acquiesce to US demands to avoid alienating Trump, his most powerful ally.
Kyiv hoped Russia’s unwillingness to do the same would, in time, provoke the US to unleash powerful sanctions and cripple Moscow’s war machine — the most likely scenario in which Ukraine can hope to weaken Russia and negotiate an advantageous peace deal, analysts said.
Russia’s position has remained mostly consistent. The Kremlin kept repeating that it was ready for peace talks with Ukraine — while making demands that were politically untenable for Zelenskyy, and would require Ukraine to make territorial concessions, neutralize its army and vow never to join NATO.
Throughout the war, Moscow has also accused Kyiv and its Western allies of seeking to prolong the fighting and derailing peace efforts.
Most recently, the Kremlin pushed back against a proposed 30-day ceasefire, countering with two brief unilateral ones, and then accused Ukraine of failing to stop the fighting, painting it as unwilling to silence the guns. At the same time, Russian officials underscore the effort to resolve the conflict is complex.
“We understand that Washington wants to achieve quick success in this process, but at the same time we hope that there is an understanding that the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis is too complicated, there are many questions and details that need to be addressed before the settlement,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters last month.
Ukraine is asking for an unconditional temporary ceasefire, during which time future diplomatic talks can take shape. Zelenskyy also asked for a trust-building gesture, such as the release of prisoners of war, something the two sides agreed to Friday. The exchange of 1,000 prisoners would be their largest swap yet.
But Ukraine has also maintained flexibility in its negotiating position by accepting Trump’s proposals to avoid alienating the US President.
“They’re desperate to keep the Americans on their side,” said Balazs Jarabik, an analyst specializing in Eastern Europe and Ukraine.
In March, Kyiv agreed to the US proposal for an immediate 30-day ceasefire, which Putin effectively rejected by imposing conditions impossible for Ukraine. In April, Kyiv signed a landmark minerals deal sought by Trump after months of fraught negotiations and a brief pause in military aid.
That is why agreeing to send a delegation to Istanbul, after Trump supported the idea, was a risky move for Zelenskyy. It played into Putin’s aim of drawing Kyiv into talks that had been stalled since the early weeks of Moscow’s 2022 invasion.
“We showed that we are for peace negotiations and support Trump’s plan,” said Mykola Davydiuk, a Ukrainian political scientist. “Now the ball is with Trump.”
Despite verbal threats from Europe and the US, sanctions of the kind that could devastate Russia’s energy sector have not been forthcoming.
Zelenskyy has expressed support for a sanctions package pushed in the US Congress by Republican Sen. Lindsay Graham that could impose 500% tariffs on Russian energy imports. Graham has said he has enough support in the House to bring the sanctions bill to the floor.
Russia likely gearing up for summer fighting campaign
For now, Zelenskyy has few options but to continue to highlight Putin’s disinclination to engage in meaningful talks and keep the US engaged.
“If it turns out that the Russian delegation really is just theatrical and can’t deliver any results today, the world must respond,” the Ukrainian leader said at a European summit in Albania on Friday. “There needs to be a strong reaction, including sanctions against Russia’s energy sector and banks. Pressure must continue to rise until real progress is made.”
For Ukrainian soldiers fighting along the 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line the theatricality of the week’s political developments stood in harsh contrast with the grinding war.
“Better to call it a circus,” said a Ukrainian drone operator with the 68th brigade who, like other soldiers, gave only his call sign Goose in line with military protocol.
Analysts say Russia is at a crucial crossroads in the war, where it can negotiate a truce and consolidate gains, or launch a summer military campaign to maximize wins before the onset of winter.
Ukraine has always been at a disadvantage and faces manpower and ammunition shortages. Analysts have offered estimates of six months to two years for how much longer it can hang on.
Much will depend on what kind of support Ukraine receives from partners and how quickly the country can scale up domestic weapons production.
Russian forces recently intensified offensive operations in the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, according to Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces spokesperson. Soldiers said Russia has a clear aim of reaching the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region, to be able to claim the capture of two out of four partially occupied territories.
“The feeling is that we will either hold out and allow the political leadership of the country to freeze the conflict along the contact line, or the enemy will break through,” said a Ukrainian soldier with the call sign Corsair Denis in the Sumy region.
SOURCE :- NEW INDIAN EXPRESS
