CPI Inflation Data To Be Released On Tuesday: What’s Expected?

SOURCE : NEW18 NEWS

Last Updated:May 12, 2025, 16:04 IST

India’s retail inflation likely fell to a near six-year low in April, driven by a continued moderation in food prices, according to a Reuters poll.

CPI Inflation In April 2025: India’s retail inflation likely fell to a near six-year low in April, driven by a continued moderation in food prices, according to a Reuters poll conducted between May 5 and 8. The decline would mark the third consecutive month that inflation has remained below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4 per cent medium-term target.

Despite intense heatwaves, a resilient harvest helped keep food prices in check, offering relief to households that spend a large portion of their budgets on food. Food items account for nearly half of the consumer price index (CPI) basket.

Due to a government holiday on Monday, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is scheduled to release the official data on Tuesday at 4:00 pm.

The Reuters poll of 43 economists forecasted that annual CPI inflation dropped to 3.27 per cent in April from 3.34 per cent in March, with estimates ranging between 2.8 per cent and 4 per cent.

If confirmed, the April reading would reflect the slowest price rise since mid-2019.

“The slight decline we will see is because food inflation continues to ease on a month-on-month basis. Vegetable prices, pulses, cereals … even fruits declined,” said Gaura Sengupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank. “The fact is we are in April, and you’re entering the summer months. The expectation is seasonally you should see a pick-up in vegetable prices, but for now we’re not seeing that.”

A separate Reuters survey last month projected that inflation would average 4 per cent for the current fiscal year, matching the RBI’s forecast.

Meanwhile, gold prices surged by about 5 per cent in April, as investors turned to the precious metal as a safe-haven asset amid global trade tensions — partially offsetting the effect of easing consumer inflation.

With inflation appearing well-contained, the RBI may have more flexibility to cut interest rates to support growth amid a slowdown in economic activity.

Expectations of above-average monsoon rains this year have also raised hopes for better agricultural output and stronger rural demand, which could support the broader economy.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was estimated to have eased to 4 per cent in April from 4.1 per cent in the previous month, according to the latest Reuters poll. The Indian government does not officially publish core inflation figures.

Additionally, wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation was projected to have slowed to 1.76 per cent in April, down from 2.05 per cent in March.

First Published:

May 12, 2025, 16:04 IST