SOURCE ; NEW18
Last Updated:May 21, 2025, 00:28 IST
Once it makes its onset, the southwest monsoon normally covers the entire country by July 8. IMD is yet to issue its month-wise forecast for June, which will give a clearer outlook
The farmers are also pinning their hopes on IMD’s first long-range forecast of above-normal monsoon this year, indicating a higher probability of excess rains, at least 105% above the long-period average (LPA). (Representational Image)
India is anticipating an early arrival of the southwest monsoon this May, with conditions becoming favourable for its onset over Kerala in the next four to five days. While this comes as a big relief for heat-stressed regions, it also renews hopes of farmers preparing for the timely sowing of the rain-fed Kharif crops.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon is rapidly advancing over the South Arabian Sea, the remaining parts of the Maldives and the Comorin area, the Lakshadweep areas, and the Bay of Bengal and is likely to reach Kerala and Tamil Nadu this week. This is in line with MeT’s previous forecast, which hinted at the monsoon’s early arrival on May 27 (+/-4 days). This would also mark the monsoon’s earliest arrival over India in at least five years.
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Boost for kharif crops
An early arrival augurs well for the farmers who are preparing their fields for the sowing of the rain-fed kharif crops, especially paddy. Once it sets in over Kerala, the monsoon takes over a month to cover the rest of the country and completes its journey by July 8, marking the beginning of the four-month season. The seasonal rains are the lifeline of India’s agrarian economy, as they provide over 75% of the annual rains.
Last year, the monsoon made its onset on May 31, covered the country by July 2, and ended the season with excess rains—108% of the long-period average (LPA).
Major paddy-growing state Punjab has already begun direct sowing of paddy from May 15 onwards. In order to conserve groundwater, the state has committed to bringing five lakh acres under the Direct Sowing of Rice (DSR) technique this year, as part of which pre-germinated seeds are sown directly, rather than transplanting seeds from a nursery by a tractor-powered machine 20-30 days later, saving water.
Excess rains this monsoon season?
The farmers are also pinning their hopes on IMD’s first long-range forecast of above-normal monsoon this year, indicating a higher probability of excess rains, at least 105% above the long-period average (LPA). The forecast involves a model error of +/-5%. The long-period average for the seasonal rainfall over India from 1971 to 2020 is 87 cm.
In a major relief, the prevailing conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which tend to significantly affect the monsoon, are also neutral and likely to remain so during the season, ruling out any El Niño formation. With favourable conditions, the IMD is confident of a good monsoon this year, highlighting that the forecast probability of deficient or below-normal rains is just 11%.
However, the IMD’s second long-range forecast, due to be released at the end of May, will offer a clearer outlook, with month-wise predictions for the seasonal rains.
Meanwhile, with heavy rains lashing the southern states, the IMD has already warned that the widespread rains are likely to continue over parts of the southern peninsula, including Kerala, Karnataka, Konkan-Goa, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, and Telangana during the next seven days. A low-pressure area is also likely to form over the east-central Arabian Sea off the Karnataka coast around May 22, which will intensify and move northwards.
- First Published:
May 21, 2025, 00:28 IST
