Source : the age
Western Sydney has added more than 200,000 voters aged under 45 since the last election making Millennials and Gen Z voters the dominant voting bloc in that key electoral battleground for the first time.
Millennials (born between 1981 and 1996) and Gen Z (born after 1996) will make up more than half the voters in six western Sydney electorates in the 2025 election, analysis of election roll data by think tank the Western Sydney Leadership Dialogue shows.
Those aged under 45 now account for over 40 per cent of electors in all 16 western Sydney seats compared with only four at the last federal poll in 2022.
There is a relatively high share of Millennial and Gen Z in several tightly contested marginal seats in the region including Werriwa (50 per cent), Parramatta (47 per cent), Reid (45 per cent) and Lindsay (52 per cent).
Millennials and Gen Z now make up 47 per cent of voters across Greater Western Sydney and 43 per cent of the national electorate.
However, older voters still hold sway in some regions of Sydney. In the Northern Beaches seat of Mackellar, held by teal MP Sophie Scamps, only 37 per cent of voters are aged under 45. It is a similar story in Bradfield (38 per cent under 45 years) and Berowra (39 per cent).
Adam Leto, chief executive of the Western Sydney Leadership Dialogue, said the growing political clout of Millennials and Gen Z is “a shot across the bow for all political parties” that underscores the need to address intergenerational inequality.
“The bottom line is younger voters are buckling under the weight of a system tipped in favour of a retiring demographic,” he said.
During the election campaign both major parties have targeted younger voters with policies that subsidise first home buyers.
But Leto says much bolder reforms are needed to convince voters under 45 years that major parties are “fully invested” in dealing with the challenges they face.
“Boomers and Gen X voters grew up with housing that was affordable, benefited from reforms like Medicare, superannuation and a suite of government policies that allowed them to raise families, retire with good incomes and comfortably contribute to the economy,” he said. “Without serious action, the picture isn’t as pretty for younger generations.”
Shannon Said, a 35-year-old mental health clinician from Mount Druitt, says young people in western Sydney haven’t benefited meaningfully from government investments and feel a sense of “futility” about politics.
Millennial voter Shannon Said predicts many young people in Western Sydney will vote for Greens and independents.Credit: Thomas Wielecki
“How often have these parties actually met with young people and engaged with them meaningfully, not just for a few photos and a few news appearances?” he says. “Are you coming down to places where youth are and actually engaging with what they’re saying? I don’t see that.”
Said is planning to vote for an independent.
“I think we’re probably going to see a lot of voting for the Greens and independents because they seem to be more in tune with what’s going on,” he says.
Opinion polls show Labor and the Coalition are struggling to win over younger voters; a Resolve Political Monitor (RPM) survey published earlier this month showed only 56 per cent of those aged 18-35 backed one of the two majors. That compares with 74 per cent support for the Coalition and Labor among those aged over 55.
Jim Reed, who conducts the Resolve Political Monitor published by this masthead, says young voters have been hit hard by cost-of-living pressures and a lack of affordable housing.
“Younger people tend to earn less when they’re starting out, and rental prices have hampered their ability to crack property ownership too,” he says.
“It’s no wonder this group is voting for change via minor parties and independents, and staying there for longer than they used to. They don’t see solutions coming from the major parties.”
Lukas Galanto is another young voter unconvinced by what major parties are offering.
“I see myself voting more independent … it just doesn’t really feel like the bigger parties have actual interest in the local communities,” says the 21-year-old who rents in Castle Hill.
Much of the information Galanto receives about the election comes via social media.
Young voters Lukas Galanto and Mara Board Credit: Thomas Wielecki
“Every now and then I do see [politicians on my social media], but it’s never about what they’re planning to do, it’s always what the other party isn’t doing,” he says. “I feel like they’re fighting instead of actually telling you kind of the plans they have for you.”
His friend Mara Board, a 21-year-old university student, feels politicians are not “doing much for people our age; they don’t really talk to us.”
Board, who lives as St Mary’s, is especially pessimistic about her homeownership prospects.
“I don’t think I’ll be able to afford Sydney when it is that time to get a job and move out,” she says.
The Australian Election Study (AES), which has surveyed voters after each election since the mid-1980s, shows the behaviour of Millennial and Gen Z voters differs from previous generations.
Only about one in four voters under the age of 40 reported voting for the Coalition at the 2022 federal election.
“At no time in the 35-year history of the AES have we observed such a low level of support for either major party in so large a segment of the electorate,” the study said.
The share of under-40s voting for the ALP in 2022 was 38 per cent, unchanged from 2019.
“The evidence shows that political partisanship among younger generations is lower than it has been in the past for both Labor and Liberal,” says Griffith University’s Dr Sarah Cameron, a chief investigator on the AES. “It’s higher, however, for the Greens.”
The latest electoral roll data published by the Australian Electoral Commission shows the seat of Greenway in Sydney’s north-western suburbs has the city’s highest share of Millennial and Gen Z voters at 54 per cent followed by the neighbouring electorate of Chifley (53 per cent).
The inner-city electorate of Sydney is the only seat outside the western suburbs where Millennials and Gen Z are the majority of voters (52 per cent).
Major differences in age profiles are emerging across Australian electorates as the population ages. The seat of Greenway has only 10,315 voters over the age of 70 while in Mackellar there are over 26,592 voters in that age group, the latest election roll data shows.
The share of older voters is much higher in many regional electorates. In the north coast NSW seat of Lynne there are 36,580 voters aged over 70 and in the marginal south coast electorate of Gilmore there are 34,593 voters in that age group.
The contrasting age profiles between some electorates are set to create new political and policy pressures. In older seats, health and aged care services are likely to be a top priority for voters, while in younger seats other demands will take precedence such as housing affordability, childcare and transport.
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