In the fickle world of Origin, Slater is already at an inflection point

Source : ABC NEWS

There are no free swings in State of Origin.

A club coach might get some occasional leeway if their season is shattered by injuries or it feels like they need a year or two to get a team playing their way, but that’s not the case if you’re in charge of New South Wales or Queensland.

Despite having less time, the stakes, expectations and quality of players mean you have to get it right straight away or you might be out on your ear.

Queensland coaches always have fewer options than their southern counterparts, just through sheer force of numbers.

Through some freak occurrence, enough top-line talent has been coming through both states to create a remarkable balance in Origin outcomes, with each enjoying a few golden eras along the way.

But right now, the Blues look undeniably healthier.

They can take a principled stance against picking Terrell May (even if it’s unclear what that stance is based on), ditch captain Jake Trbojevic, not select Haumole Olakau’atu, and leave James Tedesco and Ryan Papenhuyzen on the couch. And May’s omission is the only one that is hard to defend.

That glut of options also means there’s not always a “right” answer for Blues coaches.

Mitchell Moses or Nathan Cleary instead of Jarome Luai, Hudson Young over Olakau’atu, Dylan Edwards over Teddy or Paps … these are all understandable calls that will be picked apart by critics if this series, or even just Game I, goes awry.

In fact, you could argue another player was worthy of a start in almost every position in the Blues squad — Tedesco at fullback, Trbojevic at centre or wing, Luai in the halves, Olakau’atu in the back row, May in the front row, Api Koroisau at hooker.

For Billy Slater, the relative dearth of players means the equations are simpler.

Despite Queensland ultimately naming more bolters and debutants, sitting down to list a Maroons team came with more locks than Rapunzel.

Realistically, of the final 17 for the series opener, only Robert Toia, Moeaki Fotuaika, Beau Fermor and Trent Loiero were anything less than nailed on for weeks in the lead-up, even with dips in form from spine members Kalyn Ponga and Daly Cherry-Evans.

You can wax lyrical about how Queensland is more loyal to its players than NSW has been and how it’s a sign that the Maroons just ‘get’ Origin more. But, at the end of the day, you can’t blame a kid who’s been given 50 more toys to play with for being a little less attached to each and every one of them.

And Slater, like so many Queensland coaches before him, has done more with less since getting the gig in 2022.

The Blues won in 2021 with a combined 76-6 scoreline in the first two games, and only missed the first clean sweep in over a decade by three points in a series played entirely in Queensland.

If back-to-back wins in 2018-19 were the emergence of a potential dynasty, that Trbojevic-Latrell Mitchell series four years ago was the confirmation of how good they could be.

Somehow Slater reversed it, with bold selections and a quicksilver attack snatching two straight series and ending Brad Fittler’s six-year reign as NSW coach in the process.

The Melbourne and Queensland legend is big on the players’ connection to the state and the Origin mythos, with his philosophical approach sardonically likened to that of a bush poet.

Like Fittler encouraging his team to touch grass to get grounded before games, off-piste approaches are lauded as the eccentricities of a genius when they work but are lambasted as madness if the wins dry up.

And last year, just as it did for Fittler in the final years of his tenure, some of the shine came off Slater.

His “We’re still Queenslanders” response when asked about potential changes after a 20-point Game II loss baffles to this day, and his team ultimately failed to score a try in a decider as they surrendered the shield at home.

Some choices, like not injecting Kalyn Ponga to replace an ailing Reece Walsh in Game III last year, have been questioned and his criticism of the refereeing in that game also smacked of sour grapes.

The decision to pick Storm lock Trent Loiero over Canberra firebrand Corey Horsburgh in this year’s season opener has also raised some eyebrows.

Slater may yet be proven right as he has in the past, but if Queensland loses a second straight series, the miracles of 2022 and 2023 will be forgotten in a hurry.

Fittler overhauled the Blues in 2018 and became the first coach since Phil Gould in 2004 to lead NSW to successive series wins, but his last two years have seen him remembered as a bad coach.

In sport, it’s often the last impression that matters most, or at least the loudest.

In his fourth straight men’s series, Slater has already done what 23 Origin coaches before him have failed to do.

If he makes it to five, he will be just the fifth to have led his state for half a decade without interruption, but in that list only Mal Meninga and Phil Gould have universal approval ratings.

Fittler led dominant wins in 2018 and 2021 with a last-second decider win in 2019 for good measure, but lost the unlosable in 2020 and finished with two brutal defeats.

Laurie Daley ended Queensland’s eight-straight streak in 2014, but finished with three straight series losses and is coming back this year to try and fix his 1-4 record.

All of them are greats of the game and Slater could one day join the ranks of the Immortals, but it’s amazing how quickly a mood can shift, and with only three games each year, the margins are finer in Origin than anywhere else.

If he comes out of 2025 with a 2-2 record and a second straight defeat, people won’t remember the untimely injuries to the likes of Tom Gilbert, Jack Howarth, Max Plath and Murray Taulagi.

And if it comes to that, you can bet “we’re still Queenslanders” will pass the sniff test even less than it did the first time.