Source : the age
Labor has gone on the offensive against the Coalition in key marginal seats after gaining a boost in published opinion polls, but government MPs are warning that their core support remains at risk from a backlash over the cost of living.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has stepped up his visits to seats once seen as leaning to the Liberals, highlighting a shift in the campaign as Labor insiders express growing confidence in holding power at the election on May 3.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on the campaign trail on Wednesday. Credit: James Brickwood, Alex Ellinghausen
The Coalition is fighting back in Labor’s heartland territory in the hope that suburban voters will punish Albanese over rising prices and help the Liberals win seats such as McEwen in northern Melbourne and Werriwa in western Sydney.
But the Liberals have also revealed a crucial vulnerability in some of the communities they want to win back, with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton staying away from “teal” seats as well as marginal seats closer to city centres such as Bennelong in Sydney and Chisholm in Melbourne.
The shifting tactics are revealed in the visits to key seats by Albanese and Dutton, as well as in comments from Labor and Coalition MPs on their prospects in some of the nation’s tightest races.
“I’m worried that we’re getting lulled into a false sense of security because of the polls,” said one Labor MP not at liberty to speak on the record.
“Some people are angry with us because the cost of living is really hurting them, and that does always get picked up by the polls.”
Albanese has signalled his confidence by visiting the Melbourne seat of Menzies, which is held by Liberal MP Keith Wolahan and has been Liberal territory since it was formed in 1984, and the nearby seat of Deakin, held by Liberal frontbencher Michael Sukkar.
“I want to not just hold all our members here in Victoria – I want to win seats like Menzies and Deakin,” Albanese declared during a visit to the state this month.
Anthony Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong have lunch with Chinese business leaders in Melbourne on Monday in Box Hill, in the Menzies electorate. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
Labor sources are also expressing greater confidence about holding ground in NSW seats such as Gilmore on the NSW South Coast, as well as Paterson in the Hunter Valley and Robertson on the NSW Central Coast, where they believe Dutton’s strong criticism of working from home has cost him votes.
Dutton was in Robertson in March to promise $112.5 million to upgrade Terrigal Drive, but he has not returned since the formal campaign began on March 28. Albanese has not visited the seat during the campaign.
Liberal MPs acknowledged the damage to their campaigns in commuter suburbs, and seats such as Robertson, from their working-from-home plans despite Dutton’s retreat on the issue on April 7, when he assured voters he supported remote working.
Two Labor ministers said the party’s polling bounce had brought unexpected seats into play, as well as easing the swing against the party in Victoria.
Several Labor sources acknowledged that the seat of Aston, won from the Liberals at a byelection two years ago, would be lost on current polling.
Despite the stated confidence about defeating the Liberals in other seats, Labor is spending heavily on advertising to defend suburban electorates such as Hawke and Bruce.
Party sources said they wanted to wait until Anzac Day to confirm if the swing towards Labor had held up as more voters paid attention after Easter.
“The chessboard is widening,” a minister said. “It’s not taking resources away from any of the seats we know we have to defend, but the map is growing for us.”
Dutton has not visited metropolitan marginal seats such as Bennelong in Sydney or Chisholm in Melbourne, nor Liberal seats under threat from “teal” campaigners such Bradfield in Sydney or Wannon in regional Victoria.
The opposition leader is yet to visit any seats on the east coast where Liberal candidates are trying to reclaim seats from “teal” independents: Kooyong and Goldstein in Melbourne, and Mackellar, Warringah and Wentworth in Sydney.
MPs spoke on condition they were not identified because of the rules within their parties on talking about strategies during campaigns.
One Labor MP acknowledged the risk to the government from a backlash over the cost of living but argued that Dutton was exposed because he had voted against the first rounds of energy bill relief and was against the $17 billion personal tax cut in the March 25 budget.
“They’re not winning the argument,” he said of the Liberal campaign.
“They made a terrible mistake in voting against the cost-of-living measures, thinking voters would forget about that. And then they rolled out their own policies too late.”
The contrasting judgments about the election can be explained, in part, by the different numbers each side is seeing from its pollsters.
Dutton’s pollster, Mike Turner, who runs the Freshwater/AFR poll, recorded the Coalition primary vote at 39 per cent in a published poll last week.
That was significantly higher than the result of 35 per cent in Newspoll, which is conducted by Pyxis, a company run by experienced pollster Campbell White, who is also Labor’s pollster.
The Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for this masthead by research company Resolve Strategic, which does not do polling for any political party, found last week the Coalition primary vote had fallen from 37 to 34 per cent in the first two weeks of the campaign.
It found the Labor primary vote had risen from 29 to 31 per cent but remains lower than the party’s result at the last election.
