Source : the age
Tightening counts in several “teal” seats have put Liberal Party candidates squarely back in contention as some party insiders question whether the independent push may have peaked.
Bucking the national trend by swinging towards the Liberal Party, the counts in Kooyong, held by teal Monique Ryan, and Goldstein, held by Zoe Daniel, in Melbourne were on a knife-edge late on Monday with postal votes delivering a post-election night surge to challengers Amelia Hamer and Tim Wilson.
Independent Zoe Daniel speaking to her supporters on Saturday night.Credit: Penny Stephens
Paul Fletcher’s former Sydney seat of Bradfield was also still in play, with independent Nicolette Boele battling to unseat the Liberal Party candidate, Gisele Kapterian.
If Boele ultimately claims the seat, there would be just one Liberal MP between the Sydney Harbour Bridge and Ku-ring-gai Chase on the north shore.
Climate 200-backed independents were also looking threatening in Labor-held seats of Fremantle in Western Australia and Bean in the ACT.
The previously safe Liberal seat of Flinders on the Mornington Peninsula was still too close to call on Monday in a three-way contest between the Liberals, Labor and independent Ben Smith.
Bradfield independent candidate Nicolette Boele was narrowly ahead on Monday.Credit: Wolter Peeters
Sydney-based independents Sophie Scamps in Mackellar, Zali Steggall in Warringah, and Allegra Spender were all re-elected with small swings in their favour.
However, independents failed to flip other seats viewed as winnable — such as Wannon in Victoria and the NSW seat of Cowper.
An independent challenge in Victoria’s regional seat of Monash to the Liberal Party’s Mary Aldred is also looking likely to come up short, although not before a convoluted distribution of preferences.
Liberal campaigners and strategists, speaking confidentially while counting continued, saw encouraging signs in the teal contests and questioned whether the independent movement that crashed through the 2022 election may have hit its high-water mark.
Wannon candidates Alex Dyson and sitting MP Dan Tehan.Credit: AFR
They said the Liberal campaigns in these seats were run more locally, given the federal race between Peter Dutton and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese held less relevance in contests with independents.
The party also preselected candidates like Hamer, Wilson and Aldred with more than a year to spare, giving them a long lead time to campaign.
Climate 200-backed independent Deb Leonard said she expected Aldred would be elected in Monash, but argued the fact the race was close was an achievement in itself after a three-cornered contest with Labor.
State Liberal MP Wayne Farnham, whose Narracan electorate overlaps with Monash, said Leonard had not got a return from heavy spending.
“I believe the electorate of Monash woke up to what the teal movement is all about. They are not about being independent, they are a proxy party for the Greens,” Farnham said.
Leonard, who was previously a member of the Greens but had also volunteered for the Liberal Party in the past, said she had rejected party politics because it wasn’t working for the community.
“That’s why I ran,” Leonard said. She said Liberals had pushed this “false narrative” because they were threatened by the competition.
Results in several contests were not expected for days or even weeks as postal and absentee votes were tallied.
Climate 200 executive director Byron Fay insisted the election had produced a strong result for the independents it backed.
“It often takes two or three cycles for a community independent to be successful, and with so many community independents coming second this election, the foundation has been laid for even stronger campaigns to come in 2028,” Fay said.
In Goldstein, Daniel was just 95 votes in front with counting paused on Monday and about 10,000 postal votes still to be tallied.
Wilson said on Sunday he remained optimistic after an otherwise challenging election for the Liberal Party.
“We have bucked a massive trend,” Wilson said.
Daniel jubilantly claimed victory on Saturday night but admitted on Sunday she had a long wait ahead.
In Kooyong, Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer had a narrow shot at flipping the prized seat back from Ryan.
Hamer emailed party volunteers on Sunday declaring her campaign had also bucked the nationwide trend against the Liberals.
Liberal MP Amelia Hamer casts her vote.Credit: Rachael Dexter
“We had an average 3 per cent swing against us across the country. But thanks to all your hard work, we managed to fight the national swing,” she told supporters.
“It is now clear there will be a swing towards us in Kooyong. There are only a small handful of seats nationwide where this is the case.”
Ryan told ABC radio on Monday that she and Daniel faced vicious battles to retain their seats.
“I have to say it’s great to see community independents succeeding interstate, and I was so happy to see colleagues doing really well there,” she said.
“We were up against not just the Liberals. We had dozens of conscripts, particularly from the [Exclusive] Brethren, into our communities. We had a number of other right-wing groups — Repeal the Teal, Better Australia, Advance, Australians for Prosperity.”
With Megan Gorrey
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