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Novak Djokovic risks being on the wrong end of another Wimbledon-like Carlos Alcaraz demolition unless he is willing to play differently.
That is respected coach, data guru and ex-Djokovic team member Craig O’Shannessy’s view on the Australian Open’s marquee quarter-final on Tuesday night.
Carlos Alcaraz with the spoils of his Wimbledon victory over Novak Djokovic last year.Credit: Getty Images
Alcaraz thrashed Djokovic from the baseline in last year’s Wimbledon final and is statistically the best baseline player at this year’s Open, ahead of Australia’s Alex de Minaur.
The Spaniard, who is chasing a maiden Australian Open title to complete his career grand slam this fortnight, won a staggering 58 per cent of his baseline points through the first four rounds compared to Djokovic’s 50.
Alcaraz won that Wimbledon final 6-2, 6-2, 7-6 (7-4), also claiming 58 per cent of the baseline points to Djokovic’s 39 per cent.
The Serb won only 25 per cent of those points in the second set that London afternoon.
“I think it’s Alcaraz in three or four sets,” O’Shannessy told this masthead.
“His forehand is going to be dominant, he’s brimming with confidence, and he’s playing with a good mix of depth and short angles. He’s a complete player right now.
“From what I saw the other day, he’s a level above [Jannik] Sinner and Djokovic. [My tip is] Alcaraz to win it all. I look at the data, and the data says it, and I do the eye test, and my eye test says it.”
Djokovic spoke in Brisbane ahead of this year’s Open about his love of data, video analysis and knowing opponents’ patterns of play.
“Once I’m in the tournament, I like to keep things conceptually to remind myself of what I need to do, and what my next opponent is doing well or maybe not that well,” Djokovic said.
“But then keep it more simple than comparing to the weeks prior to the tournament, where I really go and try to deconstruct my game, the game of the other players, [and] really look for the nuances that can help me get better.”
In other words, Djokovic will know exactly what Alcaraz is doing, as well as what is working for him and vice versa.
This is Djokovic’s first showdown with Alcaraz since hiring former rival Andy Murray as his coach, so that could be the wildcard factor.
O’Shannessy said it would be a mistake for Murray, who he described as a “defensive juggernaut”, to try to get Djokovic adopting a more defensive mindset.
Instead, he believes Djokovic must try to finish points in four or fewer shots, which would be in contrast to the first four rounds, where the super Serb played the second-most rallies of nine shots or more.
“Andy needs to go to the analytics, and explain to Novak, ‘This is what you need to do to win’, which is play closer to the baseline, play shorter points, for sure, and make it a 0-4 [shots] match,” O’Shannessy said.
“Everything from the serve side needs to be one or two shots. Everything from the return side is three or four shots.
Former foe Andy Murray is now Novak Djokovic’s coach.Credit: Eddie Jim
“He can’t get into these long, extended rallies where you would automatically think Novak has the edge – but he doesn’t. The longer the rally goes, in general, the more even the final outcome is, so Andy’s got to put his own game style aside.”
O’Shannessy does not expect Alcaraz to again win 58 per cent of baseline points against Djokovic, but still thinks he will dominate from there.
“I sat front row and watched Carlos [on Sunday] and studied him, not just watched, and everything he’s doing is spot on,” he said.
“I also watched Novak on centre court and studied him. Father Time catches up at some stage.
For Djokovic, beating Alcaraz to win the gold medal at last year’s Olympics meant he’d completed the full set of major singles titles in men’s tennis.Credit: AP
“He’s probably half a step slower, but that half a step slower is going to really have an impact on your decision-making.
“You have to take more risks because you’re not set … and Novak’s forehand is not as dominant as it needs to be. The backhand can bunt all day long, but bunting all day long doesn’t win grand slam titles.”
The asterisk on all this is that Djokovic leads 4-3 head-to-head with Alcaraz, including beating his 21-year-old rival in two tie-breaks at the Paris Olympics last year.
Alcaraz was in tears afterwards, explaining that he felt he let his country down, while Djokovic called it his “greatest achievement”.
However, O’Shannessy thinks a dose of reality is on the way.
“There’s so much emotion involved in the Olympics that is not involved in anything else,” he said.
“That elevated [Djokovic] and carried him like a magic carpet. It was the only thing that he ever wanted in his entire life.
“Now, we’re back to reality, and he’s not winning enough points in the back of the court, which has always been his domain.”
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