Source : the age
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Independent MP Monique Ryan has accused the Liberal Party of running an aggressive and excessive campaign to try to win back the seat of Kooyong – including taking the local council to court over election signage and deploying what she described as “conscripted” campaigners from religious groups.
While Ryan was gracious in her remarks about Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer, describing her as a “young person who has a huge career ahead of her”, she tore into the tactics used by the party and its allies.
“The Liberal Party – I’m going to say it – spent a huge amount of money in this electorate trying to win it back,” Ryan said. “We also found ourselves up against other groups funded by the coal and gas lobby, funded by Advance Australia, funded by other right-wing groups.”
She singled out one particularly controversial tactic: a push by the Liberals to challenge council rules over signage limits. “When we had the Liberal Party taking the local council to court so that it could put up more signs for a single day in a site where, realistically, there were already far too many signs,” she said.
Corflutes for Kooyong Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer at pre-polling in High Street, Kew.Credit: Chris Hopkins
Ryan also said her team had encountered dozens of campaigners from a “religious group that doesn’t allow its own members to vote” but who turned out to campaign for the Liberals – a presence she described as unsettling for some voters and volunteers. “Many people at pre-poll and polling booths found that to be a difficult experience.”
Ryan said the atmosphere on the ground had raised serious questions about the health of Australia’s democratic process. “I don’t know that it’s always a pleasant experience these days for the voter, and we need to ensure that it is safe and pleasant for all people who are involved,” she said.
Ryan used the opportunity to renew her call for truth-in-political-advertising legislation, warning of a growing threat posed by unregulated third-party groups spreading what she called false information. “When you have a third-party group that can show up outside of pre-poll, wearing its T-shirts and with advertising which is utterly untrue – in some cases, almost defamatory – and which promotes disinformation … then we have a problem with our process,” she said.
Ryan said she would raise her concerns with the Australian Electoral Commission and push for changes before the next election.
Returning Goldstein MP Tim Wilson confirmed on Monday night that he will not seek his party’s leadership when the ballot takes place on Tuesday.
“I won’t be a candidate for leader tomorrow – it’s not my time. But I will be giving all my energies to whoever wins, to replicate what we did in Goldstein across our party,” he said on Facebook about 6pm.
Tim Wilson has claimed victory in Goldstein.Credit: Paul Jeffers
“Nationally, I have the firm belief that we can win in three years. Not six. Three … Now is the time to listen, support each other, rebuild and ultimately campaign on the economic issues that matter.”
Wilson has declared victory in Goldstein, but incumbent teal MP Zoe Daniel has not yet conceded defeat, with thousands of votes still left to count.
When I sat down for coffee with Monique Ryan more than six weeks ago, she told me she believed the race for Kooyong could come down to as few as 200 votes.
On Monday, as the count finally tilted her way after more than a week of tension, she was shown to be not too wide off the mark.
The final result won’t be bedded down until after this coming weekend, but as it stands, there is only about 1000 votes separating Ryan and Hamer – and while it’s not 200 votes, it is an incredibly narrow result for one of the most-watched seats in the country.
It was a drastically tighter result than her first election in 2022, when Ryan’s ultimate margin over then Treasurer Josh Frydenberg was 6035 votes – or 52.94 per cent to Frydenberg’s 47.06 per cent.
Ryan said she always knew it would be tight, especially after a major redistribution in late 2024 shifted Kooyong’s boundaries and brought in unfamiliar suburbs from the former seat of Higgins, including Toorak, Armadale and Malvern.
“I think it was clear from the time that we had the redistribution at the start of October 2024 … that from that point in time, it was always going to be a challenging election,” she said.
She noted that roughly a third of voters in the seat this time hadn’t voted in Kooyong in 2022.
“There’s a huge amount of churn there,” she said.
“So there was always going to be a lot of work to do, and it was always going to be a very tight contest between myself and Amelia Hamer.
“While the closeness of the race created plenty of anxiety for candidates and volunteers, Ryan said it had meant a decent competition in Kooyong for voters.
“It had been really competitive,” she said.
“I think the electorate had a good opportunity to engage with both of us at significant length … and that’s not a bad thing for democracy.”
Independent MP Monique Ryan has officially claimed victory in Kooyong (for a second time), after receiving a concession call from Liberal challenger Amelia Hamer this afternoon.
“I guess I can again, having done it about 10 days ago – but, again, it looks like I’ve been successful in holding the seat of Kooyong at this election,” she laughed sheepishly speaking to The Age and Nine News outside her electoral office.
Monique Ryan claims the seat of Kooyong outside her office on Monday afternoon.Credit: Eddie Jim
“Obviously, on election night, the seat of Kooyong and Goldstein were both called by the ABC and The Age relatively early,” she said.
“And what we’ve seen is that probably the demographics and voting patterns in those electorates have changed a bit, a far higher proportion of postal votes, for example, than we’ve seen in previous elections.
“Perhaps those calls were a bit premature and Zoe Daniel and I probably made those calls a bit prematurely on the evening.”
Ryan said Hamer was gracious in her concession and acknowledged the competitiveness of the campaign.
“She said congratulations, and I thanked her for that,” Ryan said. “She’s a young person who has a huge career ahead of her … and I wished her all the very, very best.”
Ryan also thanked Labor’s Clive Crosby and Jackie Carter from the Greens for what she called a hard-fought contest.
The Teal incumbent said the closeness of the race reflected major shifts in voter behaviour and the impact of last year’s redistribution.
She said about a third of Kooyong voters had not cast a ballot in the seat in 2022, and that the high volume of postal votes caught commentators – and candidates – off guard.
“Maybe we all do need to be a bit more judicious when making those calls on election night,” she said.
Liberal Party candidate for Kooyong Amelia Hamer has conceded the contest for that seat to incumbent independent Monique Ryan.
In a post to social media on Monday afternoon, Hamer said she had phoned Ryan to congratulate the former doctor on her win.
“Whilst counting continues, it is now clear that the remaining ballots will not deliver us the majority that we need to win the seat,” she said.
Several media outlets called the seat for Ryan on election night before a surge of postal votes, counted over the following days, fell in Hamer’s favour and narrowed the contest to a few hundred votes.
Hamer thanks her volunteers and the people in Kooyong who voted for her.
Credit: Matt Golding
“To those who took the time to speak with me and share your perspectives, values, and ideas, thank you,” she said.
“We are so lucky to have a beautiful local community, a fair democracy, and a wonderful country. I hope to play my small part in making it a better place, now and into the future.”
Ryan is due to speak very shortly and we will bring you details as soon as we can of what she has to say.
Tim Wilson returned to Canberra this week and is being touted as a potential Liberal Party leader, but counting continues in Goldstein with Zoe Daniel not yet conceding the seat.
The Australian Electoral Commission has gone through all the postal votes on hand, which have been favouring Wilson, and the mandatory second count of all votes has been done.
Tim Wilson has claimed victory in the seat of Goldstein.Credit: Wayne Taylor
Wilson has a lead of 1257 votes, with 50.58 per cent of the vote, ahead of Daniel on 49.42 per cent on a two-candidate-preferred basis.
However, Daniel is yet to concede the seat and is hoping that absentee votes will swing her way.
The AEC tells me that there are two new counts likely to take place today. A count of 1000 of the declaration pre-poll votes is happening now so we should get results of that this afternoon.
A count of 2000 of the absentee votes is also planned for this afternoon, so we should see those results later in the day.
Here’s where the count sits:
545 uncounted postal votes – More will continue to arrive during the week until the deadline this Friday. A total of 24,299 postal votes were issued. So far, 20,988 have been returned, but some will never be returned.
3092 declaration pre-poll votes – These were cast at pre-poll centres outside a voter’s home division and need to be verified before they can be counted. Twelve of these have been rejected at preliminary scrutiny, but otherwise this pile has not been counted yet.
4035 absentee votes – There were cast on election day by people voting outside their enrolled electorate. These are verified and sent back to the correct division. These have not been counted yet.
195 provisional votes – These are from voters whose eligibility wasn’t certain at the time of voting. They’re only counted if the voter is later confirmed to be eligible. About half of these have been counted.
That brings us to a total of 7867 votes still outstanding at 3pm on Monday.
It’s official (again): The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald have now called the seat of Kooyong for Dr Monique Ryan.
After a dramatic week of counting, corrections, and tightening margins, Ryan’s lead over the Liberals’ Amelia Hamer has firmed significantly over the past few days, and now sits at 882 votes on the two-candidate-preferred tally (50.4 per cent to 49.6 per cent).
The Australian Electoral Commission hasn’t formally declared the seat just yet, and neither candidate has made a public statement this afternoon, but this marks the third major media call confirming Ryan will retain Kooyong after News Corp and the ABC.
This is the second time all major media organisations have called the seat for Ryan. The first was on election night more than a week ago.
Ryan had all but claimed victory on May 3 when she had a substantial lead of 56 per cent to 44 per cent (or about 3200 votes) over Hamer on a two-candidate-preferred basis. Ryan made a victory speech on the night holding up a “Kooyong we did it!” sign, celebrating with hundreds of supporters.
Monique Ryan and her family on election night.Credit: Rachael Dexter
But – like in the case of Goldstein – postal votes flowed strongly in the Liberal Party’s direction thereafter, and the race progressively tightened with media outlets downgrading the status of the seat to “too close to call” by the Monday morning after election night.
Hamer came as close as 366 votes to Ryan, but last Thursday a major turning point came for Ryan when a major correction was made in her favour.
Since then, Hamer has been unable to narrow the gap.
Stay tuned, I’ll update here if and when we hear from the candidates.
A quick update: 1500 absentee votes have just been added to the official Kooyong tally, boosting Monique Ryan’s lead by about 200 votes.
That pushes the gap between Ryan and the Liberals’ Amelia Hamer from 693 this morning to 882 votes, with the two-candidate-preferred margin now sitting at 50.4 per cent to 49.6 per cent in Ryan’s favour.
Still no word from either candidate.
It’s been nine days since the election, and it looks likely Dr Monique Ryan will retain the seat of Kooyong. The Australian Electoral Commission cleared its backlog of postal votes (which had been favouring Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer) over the weekend and processed a few provisional votes.
The upshot? Ryan has maintained a lead of between 600 and 700 votes. As of Monday morning, the margin is 693 votes, or 50.32 per cent to 49.68 per cent on the two-candidate-preferred tally.
I’m told by the AEC that the pencilled-in plan is to count more absentee votes this afternoon.
Over the weekend, News Corp’s outlets called the seat for Ryan. The ABC has projected “independent likely”, while this masthead is still saying it’s too close to call.
As of Monday morning, Hamer had not conceded, nor had Ryan claimed victory (for a second time – eep!)
While we wait for things to shape up, here’s what’s left to be counted at the moment:
- 54 postal votes – The AEC cleared more than 1000 over the weekend, but more will continue arriving throughout the week. These are votes sent in by voters who couldn’t attend a polling place. They’ll keep trickling in and being added to the count until the deadline this Friday. (About 4000 remain outstanding of the 25,000 or so issued to voters, though not all will be returned.)
- 1276 declaration pre-poll votes – These were cast at pre-poll centres outside a voter’s home division and need to be verified before they can be counted. More than 1000 were counted over the weekend.
- 2889 absentee votes – Cast on election day by people voting outside their enrolled electorate. These are verified and sent back to the correct division. We started the weekend with around 500 in the pile, which has now jumped substantially as more ballots have come back to Kooyong. According to the AEC tally, only about 100 more are expected.
- 234 provisional votes – These are from voters whose eligibility wasn’t certain at the time of voting. They’re only counted if the voter is later confirmed to be eligible. The size of this pile halved over the weekend.
- That brings us to a total of 4466 votes still outstanding as of 10am Monday.
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this post said there were 2477 declaration pre-polls and that this pile had not been touched since election day. This was incorrect, and was referring to an outdated figure. This has been corrected in the post.
Good morning, Kooyong watchers!
A quick update – last night I left you with Monique Ryan sitting 709 votes ahead of Amelia Hamer on the two-candidate-preferred count, after a few minor adjustments.
Overnight, it looks like that batch of votes we were expecting yesterday finally went into the tally.
Kooyong teal candidate Monique Ryan at her election night party.Credit: Luis Enrique Ascui
Instead of the 1000 absentee votes and 1000 pre-poll declarations the AEC had flagged, it appears they ended up counting 2000 votes solely from the absentee pile.
That has slightly narrowed the gap – Ryan is now 661 votes ahead of Hamer, with the two-candidate-preferred count sitting at 50.31 to 49.69.
While the race remains close, Ryan’s lead appears to be holding up in these later batches of votes, which are typically less favourable to the Liberal Party than the early postals.
Kooyong Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer casting her vote on election day.Credit: Rachael Dexter
Psephologists like Dr Kevin Bonham and Ben Raue are both tipping that Ryan is likely to hang on.
Still, no one has officially called the seat (for the second time!) just yet.
I’m told there will be some counting done today (Saturday), but possibly not on Sunday.
Here’s the rundown of what’s left to be counted as of 9am Saturday – with a quick explainer on what each type means:
1046 postal votes Up from 961 yesterday, as more ballots arrive via mail. These are votes sent in by voters who couldn’t attend a polling place. They’ll keep arriving and being added to the count until the deadline next Friday.
2477 declaration pre-poll votes Votes cast at pre-poll centres outside a voter’s home division, which require verification before counting. This pile hasn’t been touched since election day.
526 absentee votes Votes cast on election day by people who were voting outside their enrolled electorate. These are verified and sent back to the correct division for counting.
377 provisional votes Cast by people whose eligibility wasn’t certain at the time. They’re only counted if the voter is later confirmed to be eligible.
That makes a total of 4426 votes still outstanding – although postals and absentees may continue trickling in via snail mail and courier.
