Victoria hot seats LIVE results: Seat of Goldstein finally decided by just 128 votes, in Tim Wilson’s favour; Zoe Daniel not ready to concede

Updated: This post was updated with the latest numbers and additional analysis at 2.30pm.

For those hanging on the result in Goldstein to see whether Zoe Daniel can claw back Tim Wilson’s lead, the final counting is underway today with midnight tonight the cut-off for postal votes.

The Liberal candidate has a 258 vote margin over the teal incumbent with 470 votes waiting to be processed at 11.30am, but more could land today with the last batch of postal votes coming in.

Evan Ekin-Smyth, spokesman for the Australian Electoral Commission, said on the last day for the receipt of postal votes the numbers are always small and there could be about 100 postal votes that arrive today.

“Overseas voting occurs from a range of countries with both postal vote drop-offs to high commissions and votes cast in-person coming from locations like Nairobi late in the election period,” he said.

A late flight is scheduled to land from Nairobi tonight with a batch of votes.

I asked Ekin-Smyth about the votes that remain to be counted today and how the AEC is going to handle them.

He said the final absent count will happen first and then postal votes with the view to being completely through all outstanding votes by late in the day, but that depends on overseas deliveries. Then next week there will be a full distribution of preferences which is essentially a third count of the votes which is expected to take two to three days.

I also checked in on the number of votes which have been declared informal in Goldstein given Wilson’s claims that votes were being “knocked out” as informal.

There have been 2957 votes declared informal in Goldstein, or around 2.5 per cent, which Ekin-Smyth said is “pretty low” compared to the national average of around 5.5 per cent.

He attributes this to the demographics of the area as there were only eight candidates in Goldstein which makes it easier for people to number all boxes, an electorate like Riverina had 13 candidates and so tends to have a higher informal voting rate.

Additionally, electorates with lower English proficiency also tend to have higher informal voting rates as well.

I checked in with two election analysts to see whether they think Daniel can claw back Wilson’s lead.

Tally room analyst Ben Raue said Daniel needed about 74 per cent of the remaining votes to go in her favour which was not likely to happen.

“It’s like the end of a T20 cricket match, where the required run rate keeps getting higher and higher,” he said.

“So even though you’re scoring faster and faster, you’re not quite getting there fast enough, because you’re running out of runway. She just needs a very high proportion and yes she’s getting quite a lot of them but I don’t think she can win.”

Raue said Daniel’s only real hope was a recount.

“Maybe she can get [the margin] to under 100 votes because then there is a recount,” he said.

Psephologist and polling analyst Kevin Bonham also said it was “not realistic” for Daniel to win the seat with the small number of votes remaining to be counted.

“There’s not enough votes left to bridge that gap even with simply getting quite remarkable rates of votes in the postal count,” he said.

At this stage, both candidates are sitting and waiting, but Wilson took to social media this morning to post a “How it started” and “How it’s going” post featuring screenshots of The Age’s coverage of his campaign launch and of the tight continuing vote count.

“No matter what happens today: I always said this would be my last campaign or my greatest,” he posted. “I’m immensely proud that we called a community and a country to a higher purpose.”

Daniel posted a montage of scenes from the election campaign to social media last night.

“You get what you give, and we’re giving it every, single, thing,” she wrote. “No matter what, we are changing the world.”

Tim Wilson’s lead over incumbent teal MP Zoe Daniel in Goldstein has now narrowed to less than 300 votes.

At 6pm on Thursday, Wilson led by 292 votes with 738 votes waiting to be counted. More votes will be added if they arrive by post by Friday.

Wilson told The Age on Thursday afternoon that 500 votes had just been counted and he had only lost 11 of those votes.

He said a win by Daniel was “not impossible but extremely improbable”.

The Liberal candidate has been mobilising volunteers via text message and his WhatsApp group chat – named “Goldstein Blue Tsunami” – to help scrutineer as the margin has narrowed.

Despite the narrowing margin, Wilson told supporters “we are calm”.

“We never wanted a drop in margin like this, but we were prepared for it,” he wrote in the WhatsApp group.

Wilson says in the chat that he always wanted a buffer of 1000 votes to ensure he was “insulated” against a drop like this.

His mum, Linda Morris, who appeared alongside him at pre-poll booths, has been scrutineering for Wilson alongside a larger team.

Goldstein is not the only seat where the close battle between a teal and Liberals remains.

In the Sydney electorate of Bradfield, Liberal contender Gisele Kapterian clings to a 43-vote lead over her teal rival, Nicolette Boele, with about 303 votes still to be counted at 6pm Thursday.

On current trends a recount seems likely in Bradfield and possible in Goldstein.

Tim Wilson is scrambling for more scrutineer volunteers to “knock out” his opponent’s informal votes in Goldstein as the margin between the Liberal candidate and teal incumbent Zoe Daniel continues to narrow.

A text message from Wilson to his supporters on Wednesday says it is an “EXTREME necessity” for scrutineers to be available.

“The sole purpose of scrutineering is to knock out our opponent’s vote. That is what they are doing to us with EXTREME position [sic].”

(Wilson later clarified to The Age that the text message should have read “EXTREME precision”.)

His lead in Goldstein when he sent the text was 528 votes. It has since narrowed to 302 votes at 12.45pm Thursday, with 935 votes remaining to be counted. More votes will be added if they arrive by post by Friday.

Wilson’s text message urging more volunteer support comes as he mobilises supporters via his WhatsApp group chat, named “Goldstein Blue Tsunami”.

In those messages, he writes that more Liberal scrutineers are needed to “knock out informal votes that are being counted for the Teals”. Despite the narrowing margin, Wilson insisted to supporters, “we are calm”.

The Age has also obtained Daniel’s scrutineering guide, which Wilson said is a “leaked how-to guide” on knocking out votes intended for him.

The guide for scrutineers states: “We only challenge Tim Wilson’s vote”. It also notes that Wilson’s volunteers will challenge Daniel’s votes, so there is no need for her scrutineers to do that.

Evan Ekin-Smyth, spokesman for the Australian Electoral Commission, said while scrutineers could flag votes, the final decision was with the AEC.

“It’s always up to the AEC to say whether something is formal or not and it always goes to the Electoral Act,” he said. “It doesn’t really matter what scrutineers do.”

He said Wilson’s references to “knocking out” votes “look a bit loose”.

“You can’t just say you’re knocking out votes,” he said. “You can say you’re challenging votes as to whether they’re formal or not.”

“Scrutineers are a part of the process. Challenging votes for whether they’re formal or informal is an important part of that process, but we’re confident in how we’re doing it.

“So in terms of the communication that they’re putting out there, we’d like people to be very clear that what they’re talking about is scrutineer challenges, but the decisions are always made in accordance with the Act.”

Ekin-Smyth said three “relatively small” counts are expected in Goldstein today, including around 170 absent votes, 260 provisional votes and a small number of declaration pre-polls.

“All small quantities,” he said. “The needle will shift off the back of them, but not sure how much”.

Daniel told The Age on Thursday the AEC process should be respected.

“As always, I thank my volunteers for their participation in an open and honest democratic process,” she said.

The Liberal Party’s Zoe McKenzie has won the seat of Flinders in Melbourne’s south-east.

The result was delayed due to uncertainty over the preference count.

But the AEC’s Tally Room website now shows McKenzie leads independent candidate Ben Smith by more than 6000 votes with about 85 per cent of the two-candidate preferred count completed.

McKenzie was first elected to the seat of Flinders in 2022.

Confirmation of her re-election brings the Coalition’s tally in the House of Representatives to 43. Labor has won 93 seats, while smaller parties and independents will hold 12 seats.

Read more here.

Tim Wilson’s supporters are being mobilised to help as scrutineers as the Liberal candidate’s lead over incumbent teal MP Zoe Daniel narrows further to 368 votes.

Screenshots from Wilson’s WhatsApp group chat – named “Goldstein Blue Tsunami” – leaked to The Age show Wilson claiming that informal votes are being counted for Daniel.

He writes that more Liberal scrutineers are needed to “knock out informal votes that are being counted for the Teals” – something Wilson says he is “extremely good” at but legally prohibited from doing as a candidate in this election. He also warns supporters to prepare for a recount.

Daniel claimed victory in Goldstein on election night with a margin of 1800 votes, but postal votes came in strongly in Wilson’s favour, and he overtook her in the count. He claimed victory on May 7 in a triumphant press conference surrounded by supporters.

However, since then, the margin – which once had Wilson ahead by as much as 1200 votes – has been slowly eroded.

On Wednesday night, only 401 votes separated the candidates. Wilson’s lead narrowed on Thursday morning to 368 votes.

There are 1225 votes still to be counted, plus any more postal votes that arrive (they must be received by Friday).

In the WhatsApp chat, Wilson also warns that “bad batches of votes come in” and that votes cast in Melbourne’s CBD are particularly unfavourable to the Liberals because they include many students.

Despite the narrowing margin, Wilson insists “we are calm”.

“We never wanted a drop in margin like this, but we were prepared for it.”

Wilson says he always wanted a buffer of 1000 votes to ensure he was “insulated” against a drop like this.

He warns that Daniel is likely to ask for a recount.

“If a full recount occurs we will need a massive scrutineering team because every vote will need to be scrutinised and it will be a race to see who can knock out the most votes. Let’s hope that does not happen.”

An automatic recount is triggered if the margin is as low as 100 votes, but either candidate can request a recount.

When asked to comment on the WhatsApp group and his claims about informal votes being counted for Daniel, Wilson said: “Around Goldstein, teal campaigners have been boasting that they’ve been good at knocking out informal votes that may have otherwise been counted for me.”

The full text of Wilson’s message to the Goldstein Blue Tsunami group:

There is no point projecting where the vote lands, if the Teals keep knocking out votes and we are not doing the same. The votes will be the votes. The difference is whether we have scrutineers to knock out informal votes that are being counted for the teals. Sadly, this is something I am extremely good at doing but I am legally prohibited from doing on this vote because I am a candidate. If you can help scrutineer, please contact Ben.

Bad batches of votes come in. For instance absentee votes cast in Melbourne CBD tend to be unfavourable because it is weighted towards students.

This scenario is why I always said we needed a buffer of about 1000 votes despite media outlets calling the result. It was explicitly to ensure we were insulated against a drop of this nature.

I cannot say this is the end of the drop but it is likely to be the biggest.

The Age has a good breakdown of the types of votes that remain to be counted.

We are calm. We never wanted a drop in the margin like this, but we were prepared for it. Postal votes can come in until Friday.

An automatic recount is trigged [sic] under 100 votes. And it is likely the current MP will call for a recount, though it may not be agreed by the AEC.

A further WhatsApp message from Wilson to the group:

Our margin is now down to 401 votes.

There are now 1380 votes left to count.

In the last count of 400 votes we lost another 107 votes.

The only thing that matters is scrutineering to knock out informal votes being counted for the Teals. They are knocking out votes for us with extreme precision.

If a full recount occurs we will need a massive scrutineering team because every vote will need to be scrutinised and it will be a race to see who can knock out the most votes. Let’s hope that does not happen.

Tim Wilson’s lead in Goldstein has narrowed to 401 votes as counting continues in the seat.

Teal independent Zoe Daniel is still hoping she can retain Goldstein when international postal votes come in.

There are 1,380 votes still to be counted, but more postal votes are likely to arrive between now and Friday. Postal votes must be received by Friday.

Daniel has been refusing to concede despite Wilson – who contested the seat for the Liberal Party again after losing to the independent in 2022 – claiming victory last week.

Daniel posted on social media on Wednesday night that she had “every finger crossed”.

“Friends. We have clawed our way back from an almost 1500 vote margin on Friday to 401 tonight,” she posted.

“I have every finger crossed that a batch of international postal votes lands in the next two days and a few other things that need to, go our way.

“No matter what, as always, I’m so buoyed by the love, support, and ferocious determination that has been sent my way over the last week.

To my scrutineers who have been hanging over every, single, vote, no matter what happens, you will always be my people. Thank you.”

An update on the most complicated seat count of this election – Calwell – isn’t expected until next week.

Calwell, in Melbourne’s north, is typically safe for Labor but a result has become impossible to predict because it has become a four-cornered contest with complex preference flows.

Although Labor candidate Basem Abdo – an adviser to now-retired Maria Vamvakinou, who had held the seat since 2001 – had the highest primary vote of 30 per cent, the vote tally has been complicated by preference flows between the Liberals, who attracted 15 per cent of primary votes, and two independents who ended up with 12 and 11 per cent.

All the top three non-Labor candidates have encouraged voters to preference each other above the ALP, making it difficult for the Australian Electoral Commission to accurately predict who will move into second place. These preference flows could mean one of the independent candidates leapfrogs the Liberals, putting them within range of Labor.

AEC staff will have to conduct a full distribution of preferences before they can declare a result. This cannot be done before Friday because that is the last day postal votes can be received and counted, meaning there are unlikely to be any updates until next week.

The AEC has previously foreshadowed a result may not be known until next month, describing it as “one of the most complex distributions of preferences we’ve ever done”.

In a typical count, the AEC picks the two candidates it thinks will perform best in a seat and reports two-party-preferred figures based on this assumption to allow for a quick indication of the result on election night.

When this is wrong, they must either change their choice of candidates or wait for a full preference count of every vote in the seat before declaring a winner.

The four-cornered nature of the Calwell contest has made it impossible to predict the two leading candidates, forcing the AEC to await the full distribution of preferences.