Source : the age
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Liberal candidate Tim Wilson is “incredibly optimistic” of winning Goldstein as postal votes, heavily favouring the former MP, have rolled in, slashing his election night deficit.
Wilson believes he can snatch the seat back from teal independent Zoe Daniel, who thought she had retained Goldstein on election night.
“We have bucked a massive trend, and I think it’s really important to understand this,” Wilson said in a video posted to social media late on Sunday afternoon.
“Basically, most of the nation went that way, and Goldstein went that way,” he said pointing, in opposing directions.
Wilson said in Victoria there was a statewide swing against the Liberals of about 2 per cent, but in Goldstein there was a primary vote swing to the Liberals of 3.8 per cent or nearly 4 per cent.
“In effect, we have bucked the trend by nearly 6 per cent and that has come down to all of the people who have been part of this campaign, who’ve come along, have participated willfully, willingly and bought energy and enthusiasm.”
Daniel made a victory speech on Saturday night when the vote count had her ahead, but since then postal votes have closed the margin.
“In Goldstein the largest booth is postal votes,” Wilson said. “There were 27,000 postal vote applications, and we’re watching them roll in.”
On Sunday morning, Daniel enjoyed a lead of 1800 votes, at the time of Wilson recording his video it had dropped to 700 votes and at 5pm today it was down to 90 votes.
“Every single batch of votes counted, it continues to collapse,” Wilson said.
He said postal votes in Goldstein usually track in the Liberal Party’s favour by a ratio of about two-to-one.
“That’s the reason we remain incredibly optimistic, but we are not seeking to comment on the result until we see the final results,” Wilson said.
Wilson declined a request for an interview but posed for photographs at Brighton Baths with his husband Ryan Bolger who he thanked for his support.
“I’m battle weary, I’m tired and I’m elated it’s over,” he said.
Wilson also acknowledged the catastrophic result for the Liberal party across Australia.
Liberal candidate for Goldstein Tim Wilson and his husband Ryan Bolger.Credit: PENNY STEPHENS
“Last night was a very challenging night if you’re a proud Liberal like I am for the Liberal Party,” he said.
Wilson said he wanted to honour Opposition Leader Peter Dutton for his service, but said: “It’s one of those times where the Liberal party is going to have a look at itself.”
“Now’s not a time to turn on each other, now is a time to turn to each other to support each other,” he said.
Wilson said the Liberal party was founded as the “front line” against political intersectional interests and vested interests.
“The results clearly show that is not over, that there is still a lot of room for optimism and that we still have a lot of justification for hope, but we are just going to have to be patient,” he said.
Daniel also declined an interview request today and issued a brief statement.
“The result in Goldstein is obviously close and it will be some days before the result is confirmed,” she said.
“I again thank the voters of Goldstein for their support as well as the many volunteers who worked tirelessly on my campaign.”
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There was a hungover delirium inside Monique Ryan’s campaign office in Glenferrie Road, Malvern, this morning, where more than 100 teal-clad volunteers – bleary-eyed from dancing into the wee hours at the Auburn Hotel – gathered for a morning-after regroup.
Some brought cakes and slice, some brought their kelpies.
This was the army behind Ryan’s win in Kooyong: more than 55,000 doors knocked, 2300 corflutes placed on fences and 1000 volunteers out on election day alone.
Monique Ryan and supporters at her campaign headquarters on Sunday.Credit: Luis Enrique Ascui
Campaign manager Conal Feehely called out one volunteer, Tony, who spent all of last night scrutinising results at the central counting booth.
At midday today, there were still 10,000 postal votes to count and Feehely said there were “mathematical possibilities” Ryan could lose her hold.
Ryan herself added: “The prediction so far is that we’ll be OK … but it’s not in the bag, and I don’t take anything for granted.”
The woman of the hour took the mic to address the room, reflecting on the campaign, the result and what the community’s vote signalled about the future of Australian politics.
In a speech that ranged from gratitude to grim honesty, Ryan said the nastiness of ground-game politics seen in Kooyong had played out nationwide – but had been rejected by voters.
Here is an edited excerpt from her remarks:
I think we’ve woken up this morning to a country that is fundamentally different personally, I feel like the country has rejected the politics of division and has said it wants us to do things differently.
I don’t know exactly how things are going to go. People keep asking me, ‘What’s going to happen now? How’s it going to be?’
We have a government with an increased majority. We have an opposition that’s been eviscerated.
There are still many seats in the mix, and we don’t yet know what the final shape of the parliament will be. But what we do know – what you’ve all helped make clear – is that we don’t want politics as it used to be. We want people-powered politics. We want it done differently.
There’s been a real tendency to flood the zone in parts of Australia – and we’ve seen that in Kooyong. Those of us who’ve been doorknocking or on pre-poll and polling booths in the last few weeks have come up against torrents of negativity.
Every household in this electorate has been letterboxed repeatedly with negative advertisements. We don’t want it to be like that. What we want is for our community to rebuild. And I think most of us want politics to be more respectful and, hopefully, more conciliatory – to reach bipartisanship on the things that really matter.
So people are asking me, ‘If you’re still there, and they’ve got a bigger majority – what are you going to do?’ We’re going to hold them to account. That’s what we’ll do.
We know what Australians want. They want certainty about their economic future. They want real action on climate change. They want to know the government cares about them – and will deliver adequate health care, mental health care, dental care, disability care, aged care and child care. And that’s what the crossbench will fight for in this term of parliament.”
Ryan hugged her volunteers, including Davina Lipmann. from action group Grandmothers for Refugees.
“I’m incredibly relieved, tearfully relieved,” Lipmann told The Age.
Ryan hugs Davina Lipmann from action group Grandmothers for Refugees.Credit: Luis Enrique Ascui
Lipmann said of Ryan: “She’s worked so hard. She’s delightful, sophisticated, mature. She knows what she’s doing, and she’s taken on so many issues that were new for her – she didn’t know them before. She’s a great listener, and she’s compassionate.”
Lipmann hopes Ryan can deliver the influence she spoke about on the Albanese government for the issue she cares about most.
“The refugees who came by boat who are still living very constrained lives,” she said. “Hopefully this new government will be able to reverse the barbarity and cruelty that’s happened before.”
Independent teal MP Zoe Daniel says a result could be days away in Goldstein, despite her having claimed victory at her election party last night.
After midday, with just over 74 per cent of ballots counted, Daniel was leading with 51 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, ahead of Liberal candidate Tim Wilson on 49 per cent.
Liberal candidate for Goldstein Tim Wilson and husband Ryan Bolger. Credit: Penny Stephens
She was not available for interview on Sunday but issued a brief statement at midday.
“The result in Goldstein is obviously close and it will be some days before the result is confirmed,” she said.
“I again thank the voters of Goldstein for their support as well as the many volunteers who worked tirelessly on my campaign.”
Wilson has also declined all interview requests today.
“I’m just going to let the votes fight, act and work for me,” he said in a text message.
Last night Wilson said he thought he might get up on postal votes, which were trending two-to-one in his favour.
“It’ll be tight,” he said. “The whole nation went in one direction. We went in the other direction. I’m pretty proud of that. Succour if I fail, but I genuinely think I’ll get there.”
Last night Daniel thought she had won after waiting until almost 11pm to claim victory.
“We just wanted to be sort of solid in the result before we spoke,” she told me after her victory speech.
“My team are very good on data so they spend a lot of time just crunching the numbers.”
Labor and the Greens were both still hopeful of picking up Wills as counting continued at an Australian Electoral Commission site in West Footscray on Sunday.
Neither Labor’s Peter Khalil nor the Greens’ Samantha Ratnam would offer a view on who was ahead, although there was a sense from Labor that it was more likely to do better on postal votes now being counted.
By Sunday afternoon, with 70 per cent of the vote counted, Labor was ahead by 0.68 per cent.
Both Ratnam and Khalil were at Vicki Cleary Day at the Coburg football ground on Sunday.
The event is organised by Phil Cleary, former independent MP for Wills, whose sister Vicki was killed in 1987 by her ex-partner.
Greens candidate for Wills Samantha Ratnam at the Coburg football ground on Sunday morning.Credit: Clay Lucas
“It’s dedicated to all of the women we have lost to men’s violence and the women running the gauntlet of men’s violence,” Cleary said on Sunday morning.
Families of women killed by men spoke at the event, followed by a Coburg-Carlton VFL match. The first bounce was scheduled for 1pm.
Labor MP for Wills Peter Khalil at the football ground.Credit: Clay Lucas
“There are still plenty of votes to count,” Khalil told The Age, while Ratnam said she was feeling hopeful as scrutineering continued but that it would take some time before a final result was known.
The Liberal vote in Wills dropped by about 4 per cent. Socialist Alliance candidate and Merri-bek councillor Sue Bolton was pleased to post a 5.5 per cent swing in her favour.
“I haven’t looked at the booth-by-booth results yet, but I think it’s two things: Gaza … and the capitalist dream – that if you work hard and study hard, you will get the good job and the good house – is over,” she said on Sunday morning. “People are looking for more radical alternatives than the major parties offer.”
Bolton said she wasn’t sure who would win Wills, but thought Khalil might “squeak back in”.
“It would be a positive if the seat switches from Labor to the Greens,” she added.
Aside from Bolton’s Socialist Alliance, all parties in Wills urged voters to preference Labor ahead of the Greens on their how-to-vote cards.
It’s the morning after the election and Goldstein still hangs in the balance. The dance floor was heaving when I left Zoe Daniel’s victory party just before midnight.
The teal independent MP claimed victory in a jubilant speech at the Elwood Bowls Club.
“We did it!” she told the crowd of hundreds of teal T-shirt-clad supporters. “In Goldstein, hope wins.”
But Liberal candidate Tim Wilson is not so certain. He has not conceded. As counting gets under way for a second day, the result is still tight, with Daniel just in front.
Just over 74 per cent of the vote was counted by 10am, when Daniel led with 51 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote, ahead of Wilson on 49 per cent.
Wilson thinks he may get up on postal votes, which he said were trending two-to-one in his favour.
“Daniel is welcome to claim whatever she wants – it is the voters that will decide the result,” he said last night.
“It’ll be tight. The whole nation went in one direction. We went in the other direction. I’m pretty proud of that. Succour if I fail, but I genuinely think I’ll get there.”
Monique Ryan has all but claimed victory in the seat of Kooyong again, confirming the once-blue ribbon seat for the community independent movement for another three years.
Hundreds of teal-clad volunteers packed into the beer garden at the Auburn Hotel. At 11.15pm, the crowd parted as Tina Turner’s River Deep – Mountain High rang out.
Ryan emerged with her family – husband Peter and children Annabell and Patrick – and climbed a teal crepe-paper-covered podium.
Monique Ryan with her family at the Auburn Hotel in Hawthorn.Credit: Gus McCubbing
Together, they lifted a sign high to an erupting crowd.
“Kooyong, we did it!” the sign read.
“What an amazing, amazing three years. I cannot thank every single one of you enough,” Ryan said.
“We’re still waiting for some data to come in … but it seems pretty clear that despite the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, this band of brothers has overcome the Brethren,” she said – a dark-humoured reference to reports of Exclusive Brethren volunteers campaigning for the Liberal Party in marginal seats, including Kooyong.
“As I did in 2022, can I say that I can’t believe the power of this community. I can’t believe what we’ve achieved together.”
Reflecting on her first term as an independent MP, Ryan acknowledged the challenges: building a team and electorate office from scratch, operating constantly in the public eye, and being held to a high standard.
Monique Ryan enjoying her after-party on Saturday night.Credit: Luis Enrique Ascui
“Everyone makes mistakes in life, and I and my team have done that at times,” she said. “But what we’ve discovered is that with generosity and faith – and with the help of people from the community – you can get past those things.
“And we’ve been able to, in three years, put together a body of work, which has shown the community of Kooyong that it’s worth having independent representation.”
She then turned to the people behind her campaign – a long, handwritten list of volunteers’ names she rattled off with affection.
Ryan and family on stage.Credit: Rachael Dexter
Ryan also acknowledged her political opponents, thanking Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer, Labor’s Clive Crosby and Greens candidate Jackie Crosby.
“It’s not easy to be a political candidate … They’re all good people, quite young people — and I feel maternal, which they probably wouldn’t appreciate – but that’s OK,” she laughed.
She also described the more toxic mood of this campaign, compared to her breakout win in 2022.
“This has been tough,” she said. “2022 was joyous and fun. This has been really hard … there are lots of reasons for that.
“I think as a country, we’re a different country from where we were three years ago. We have some challenges. We have some bridges to rebuild and some things to mend. But I think we can do that.
“We’ve lost some of the joy that we had. We’ve lost some of the cohesion we’ve always enjoyed as a country – one of the wonderful things about living here. But with your help, as part of the 48th parliament, I believe we can bring it back.”
She ended the speech with “let’s have a party” and Tina Turner’s song blasted out again.
Labor MP for Wills, Peter Khalil, told ALP members gathered at his election night party that the result would not be known on Saturday night. Counting in the northern suburbs seat would continue on Sunday.
The lead changed hands multiple times last night. As midnight approached, Labor had drawn ahead of the Greens by 2 per cent, with 67 per cent of ballots counted.
Labor MP for Wills Peter Khalil (left) at his election night party in Brunswick, with Australian Workers Union state secretary Ronnie Hayden.Credit: Clay Lucas
The Greens’ Samantha Ratnam led for much of the night but Labor pulled ahead as pre-poll and postal votes were counted.
Speaking at the Brunswick Bowls Club late on Saturday, Khalil told party members that while things were looking positive for Labor, counting was too close to call and scrutineering would recommence on Sunday morning.
“We are still alive but this is still too close to call. There are tens of thousands of votes to still be counted at pre-poll and postal,” Khalil said. “We remain hopeful but we can’t say whether there is a result tonight in Wills.”
Greens candidate for Wills Samantha Ratnam, second from right, on election night.Credit: Paul Jeffers
By 11.45pm, the Greens had won 37 per cent of the primary vote versus Labor’s 35 per cent, but when preferences were taken into account, Khalil was narrowly in front.
At the Greens’ party in Docklands, Ratnam and Greens leader Adam Bandt both asked their hardcore supporters to be available in the coming weeks to scrutinise the counting of crucial pre-poll and postal votes, which they said could take weeks.
Teal MP Zoe Daniel claimed victory in Goldstein at her election party at the Elwood Bowls Club, but Liberal candidate Tim Wilson is not conceding yet.
“With the current 67-33 trend on postals in our favour, Ms Daniel is welcome to claim whatever she wants; it is the voters that will decide the result,” Wilson said.
Liberal candidate for Goldstein Tim Wilson casts his vote with husband Ryan Bolger. Credit: Justin McManus
Just before midnight, with 70 per cent of the vote in Goldstein counted, Daniel was sitting on 52 per cent of the preference count and Wilson on 48 per cent.
Daniel made a victory speech just after 10.30pm, emerging to chants of “Zoe, Zoe, Zoe” at the bowls club and punching the air in celebration.
“It’s been a hard campaign, team,” she told the crowd. “But in Goldstein, hope wins.”
Daniel said she was grateful for everyone who voted for her, and would strive to represent those who did not as best as she could.
“This is not about me, it’s about you and it’s about all of us together trying to create a better country, to create better policy, to create more accountability, to create more ambition, to create long-term thinking and vision,” she said.
“This has been incredibly difficult, really hard. We did it.”
Speaking to me after the speech, she said “it feels like a relief” after a long night waiting for results.
“It was a hard campaign,” she said. “The Liberals threw everything at it.”
Daniel said people who thought the teal movement was a flash in the pan last election “haven’t been watching closely enough”.
“We’ve built our volunteer base, and we have people joining every day,” she said. “People want to be involved in this. People want to do politics differently. They want to see change.”
Daniel said that despite Labor’s sweeping wins, both major parties needed to be “hyper-aware” of what was going on regarding the dissatisfaction with their performance.
“From that point of view, within the parliament, they need to listen, then, to independents,” she said. “Obviously they have a mandate to govern, but their ideas are not the only ideas, their views are not the only views and their position is not the only representative position.”
The Elwood Bowls Club reverberated with cheers as Zoe Daniel took the stage to claim victory.
“It’s been a hard campaign team,” she said. “But in Goldstein, hope wins.”
Teal independent Zoe Daniel declares victory in Goldstein.Credit: Penny Stephens
Late in the evening, the mood was celebratory as loud cheers rang out for each Liberal seat that fell and when seats were called for Labor or independents.
There was a huge cheer for the broadcast of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s victory speech, and in particular for his acknowledgment of Country and comments on climate change.
However, the biggest cheer was reserved for when Daniel entered the party after 10.40pm, once Albanese’s speech had finished.
She emerged to chants of “Zoe, Zoe, Zoe”, and took the stage with her family.
“What we have created in this community is rare,” she said. “We might not have a minority government, but I’m pretty sure we can pull some levers.
“This has been incredibly hard, but we did it.”
Tony Parr has been a Labor member and volunteer since Tony Abbott came to power in 2013. He lives in Berwick and had been scrutineering for a booth in the suburb – an area of Melbourne that has typically leaned Liberal and was a key battleground for Bruce.
When we popped into Berwick early in the campaign, almost every single person I vox-popped on the streets was a die-hard Liberal supporter.
But a few weeks is a long time in politics, and Parr showed me the handwritten results from the booth he just came from – 773 for Julian Hill and 357 for Zahid Safi in the two-party preferred.
Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles and Bruce MP Julian Hill greet voters at the Berwick pre-poll this week.Credit: Charlotte Grieve
“I’m so happy about it,” Parr said. “It’s fantastic for Julian. If you see that man on the booth, he stands in the line for three days straight, shaking every single person’s hand. It’s unique, he’s unique.”
Parr predicted this victory would spread around the country. “I’m sure of it,” he said. “Especially now we know Dutton is gone. It proves Labor policies work. We cater for the people and the people are represented by voting for Labor.”
Aftab Hussain and Abdullah Neshat appreciated the coverage in this blog about a Senate submission by Liberal candidate Safi that has been roundly criticised as denying persecution of a minority ethnic group.
Another volunteer of Afghan background, who did not share his name, said he was at the Dandenong mosque when Safi was heckled early in the campaign. He made a hand movement showing his mind was blown. “That was the beginning of the end for Safi,” he said.
Aftab Hussain, Abdullah Neshat and Charlotte Grieve.
Brothers and Labor volunteers Max and Tom Yakubowski embraced and grabbed their faces as they processed the size of the Labor victory sweeping across Bruce.
“A resounding victory for Julian Hill locally that highlights just how good a local member he really is. He’s smart, he’s kind, he’s compassionate, which are traits that I think are incredibly valuable for the local member of parliament,” Max said.
As for what the outcome says for the broader contest? “I think that it’s a resounding endorsement of the Albanese government. It’s a resounding endorsement of progressive politics in Australia, and I’m looking forward to seeing the new government hit the ground running,” he said.
I remarked that he sounded like a politician, and he laughed. “I’ve been spending too much time with them.”
His brother, Tom, shook his head in disbelief. “Well and truly, just in shock at this point, not just by the magnitude of the victory,” he said.
Another volunteer came over, and they embraced, smiling and laughing, celebrating the victory. “Are you going to Trades Hall?” Tom said. “Is the Pope Catholic?”
As for Hill’s daughter, Elanor Devitt, she said she was “so proud” of her dad. “The people of Bruce deserve him. I’m speechless.”
And her celebration plans?
“I’m going to bed,” she said, with a weary laugh and smile. “There’s no fun happening here.”
