Source :  the age

Australians have swung more support behind Opposition Leader Peter Dutton amid new signs of frustration over the cost of living, as 46 per cent of voters say they expect their real wages to fall this year.

In a warning sign for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, an exclusive survey shows that 50 per cent of voters expect inflation to get worse in the near future – flatly rejecting Labor assurances that price pressures are easing.

Dutton has gained a significant lead over Albanese as preferred prime minister, ahead by 39 to 34 per cent after being tied on the key question at the end of last year.

The survey, conducted for this masthead over the past week by research company Resolve Strategic, shows the Labor primary vote held steady at 27 per cent over the past month and the Coalition was also steady at 38 per cent.

Core support for the Greens rose from 12 to 13 per cent and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation was unchanged at 7 per cent compared to the December survey, while support for independents slipped from 11 to 10 per cent.

As a result, the Coalition kept its lead over Labor in two-party terms, ahead by 51 to 49 per cent, when preferences are allocated in the same way people voted at the last election.

But the Coalition had a bigger lead, 52 to 48 per cent, when voters were asked how they would assign their preferences in the way they would fill out the ballot paper at an election.

Resolve director Jim Reed said Dutton and the Coalition had cemented their leads on almost all policy questions to voters about who would improve the country and do best for households.

“Despite Albanese coming hot out of the blocks with visits to multiple states and new policy, voters show no signs that their faith in him has returned,” he said.

“It’s clear from the comments we collect that many voters have not switched on yet in this election year, and certainly they’re not seeing a clear choice ahead of them.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton now holds a lead as preferred prime minister over incumbent Anthony Albanese.Credit: Nathan Perri

“Many do want to see change, so the challenge for the government is to show they can change, and for the opposition it’s that they are a safe change.”

While the Labor primary vote was unchanged from December, it fell from 32 to 27 per cent over the course of last year and is now significantly below the party’s result of 32.6 per cent at the 2022 election. The Coalition’s primary vote rose through the year and is now above the 35.7 per cent election result.

Asked to name the leader and party that were best for the country, 35 per cent of respondents named Dutton and the Coalition, while 24 per cent said Albanese and Labor. Another 17 per cent said “others” and the remainder were undecided.

Reed said the result for Dutton as preferred prime minister would help the Coalition even though Australia does not have a presidential system like the United States – a key reason for caution for those who try to use the polling on personal leadership to predict an election result.

“It is usual for incumbents to hold a lead on the preferred prime minister measure simply because voters have experienced and known that person as leader,” Reed said.

“But we now have the unusual position of Dutton not only being competitive on this measure, but now holding a modest and growing lead.

“Our deeper analysis shows that views of Albanese have turned for the worse since his election, and that perceptions of weakness and inaction have been ably employed by the opposition in their attacks.

“Labor have tried to paint Dutton as negative and nasty, which again is a well-researched point of attack that agrees with voter hesitations about Dutton in our own polling, but voters don’t seem to be reacting in the same way.

“It’s likely that this simply isn’t as important to them right now. They want action, and if it’s a tough guy that delivers it, all well and good.”

The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1616 eligible voters from Wednesday, January 15 to Tuesday, January 21, a period that included widespread media coverage of antisemitic attacks, the inauguration of US President Donald Trump and the release of Israeli hostages after the ceasefire in Gaza.

The results have a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points. In another indicator of uncertainty, 34 per cent of respondents said they were “uncommitted” with their vote.

Because the Resolve Political Monitor asks voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they would write “1” on the ballot papers for the lower house at the election, there is no undecided category in the primary vote results, a key difference from some other surveys.

This means the Resolve Political Monitor does not exclude the “uncommitted” cohort from the final results, as Newspoll does, because there is no such option for respondents.

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