When brilliance is not enough: What it takes for an outsider to become one of the political greats

Vaclav Havel, the poet and political prisoner who became the first democratically elected president of Czechoslovakia, in 1989, went on to steer his country – and later, the Czech Republic, after Czechoslovakia separated from Slovakia – through the painful transition from communism to capitalism. Over 13 years as president, he drove the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact – the defence treaty that tied it to the former Soviet Union – and his country’s entrance into NATO and the European Union.

“With the collapse of communism was a real sense of moral uncertainty about, right, all the old values are gone, what are we being offered?” says University of Sydney emeritus professor Graeme Gill, an expert on Russian and Soviet politics, of the period when Havel was voted in, mere weeks after having been jailed for championing human rights.

“[So] there’s something in [his] past that gave him increased capacity, when he was a leader, and it was the sort of moral authority he had, both as a former dissident because he’d been locked up by the communists at some stage, certainly been suppressed; his plays weren’t allowed to be shown.” This enabled him to operate on the moral high ground, and accomplish great things. And be repeatedly re-elected by his people.

Then there’s Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, whose only preparation before being elected in 2019 was starring in Servant of the People, a satirical television show about a history teacher who unexpectedly is elected as the president of Ukraine.

He has shocked many by his transition into a courageous statesman who has rallied his people to hold off the Russian army, against all odds, for three years.

“[But] I mean, he’s in a crisis, which gives him a lot more power, and there’s a lot less scrutiny that he would otherwise have had,” says Professor Rodney Smith, an expert in parliamentary democracies at the University of Sydney. “And crises allow you to mobilise people around you who otherwise wouldn’t be co-operative with you. It’s more difficult to criticise the leader, if the crisis isn’t of your making, and you seem to be doing the right things.”

But experts point out that Havel and Zelensky are the rare exceptions. American President Donald Trump, is, for many, an illustration of what is more likely – the failures that can result, when a person comes to the job equipped only with renown in an entirely different arena.

“When we see someone who is clearly a good leader in some other field, you know, there’s an assumption, ‘Wow, if only we could get that person into politics, wouldn’t it be great?’ And that’s not the case,” says Smith. “Because they’re a great thinker, or a great orator, or a great businessperson, or a great whatever. But, you know, even a great head of a public sector agency, if they don’t have the full skill set [they will not be an effective political leader].”

Smith says there are five key skills in that set: being able to manage a party and rival factions, understand how the public service works, manoeuvre through the partyroom and parliament to get legislation passed, navigate the demands of lobbying and advocacy groups, and being able to bring the public along with you.

Think of Michael Ignatieff, the Booker Prize-shortlisted author and Harvard professor of human rights, who became leader of the Canadian opposition in 2008.

He was “a complete disaster”, says University of Sydney Emeritus Professor Rodney Tiffen, author of Disposable Leaders. Media and Leadership Coups from Menzies to Abbott. “He was a very, very bright guy, but didn’t really know how to operate in Ottawa.”

Ignatieff, who wrote an 8000-word policy manifesto before entering politics, in which he advocated for ways to improve the lives of Indigenous Canadians, and improve productivity through investments in higher education, didn’t disagree.

“If a politician cannot succeed in convincing voters he is in it for them, he cannot win standing … without it, no message can get a hearing,” Ignatieff wrote in his memoir, Fire And Ashes: Success and Failure In Politics, after he’d resigned as leader of the Liberal Party, following the loss of his seat in the 2011 federal election, the Liberal Party’s worst showing in its history. (The Liberals won only 34 seats in parliament, marking the first time since Confederation that the party failed to finish first or second.)

His rivals, building on the fact that Ignatieff spent 30 years in the United States before returning to Canada to run for office, attacked him in ads that read: “He didn’t come back for you.”

Even leaders who come to the top job with considerable political experience end up failing to become effective when they lack “the full skill set”, says Smith.

Think of former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, says Smith. He was an incredibly astute lawyer, merchant banker and venture capitalist who was turfed by his own party. “You might be brilliant, but if the party doesn’t like you, you’re in trouble,” he says. Think of Malcolm Turnbull, says Smith. He was an incredibly astute lawyer, merchant banker and venture capitalist who was turfed by his own party. “You might be brilliant, but if the party doesn’t like you, you’re in trouble,” he says. The same can be said of former prime minister Kevin Rudd, an accomplished diplomat, ex-political staffer and one-time head of Queensland’s cabinet office; he lost the support of his party in his first term after being unable to manage relationships within it.

“And you’ve got to convince the public [of your vision], so, you know, that’s [former Liberal Party leader] John Hewson’s story,” says Smith. “He put up a complete tax package. It made perfect sense to him as an economist with a PhD in economics. But it didn’t make sense to a majority of voters.”

It’s no wonder that the late Queen Elizabeth II once quipped about prime ministers: “I don’t know why anyone would want the job.”

So, does Mark Carney, if he wins on Monday – and the latest polls from The Economist give his Liberal Party an 86 per cent chance of winning the most seats in parliament – have a decent shot at becoming a Zelensky or a Havel?

“I think this is one of those situations where it depends a lot on the team he has,” says Smith. “I think he’s got some of these skills already, but he’s never had to keep a party together before, a political party, at parliamentary level. Never had to really deal directly with MPs who are worried about their constituents in their ridings, or their provinces. He seems a very smart guy, very personable, very confident. But, you know, it’s unlikely to get easier for Canada, I would’ve thought, in the next little while, given the situation with the southern neighbour. I think there is a certain level of risk there.”

Perhaps he’ll personify the theory of renowned German sociologist Max Weber – himself a failed politician – who believed that the only outsiders well suited to becoming politicians were lawyers or journalists, as both had been taught the ruthlessness and adaptability necessary to lead. Or maybe not.

Because Carney’s first action as prime minister was to repeal the consumer carbon levy. This was the Liberal Party’s signature climate policy, which Carney had fiercely defended, so much so, that Carney’s rival Poilievre previously dubbed him “Carbon Tax Carney”.

“This demonstrates a willingness to slaughter a sacred cow of the pro-climate progressive movement which the Liberal Party had been the proud leader of, until the moment he took it out the back and cut its head off; a determination to win power, regardless of any policy sacrifice,” says Herald and Age columnist Peter Hartcher.

Maybe the banker with a heart of gold has a ruthless side after all.

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