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There cannot be much comfort for Peter Dutton in Canada’s decision to re-elect the Liberal Party for a fourth term.
The centre-left Liberals were done and dusted in December after nearly 10 years of Justin Trudeau. Just four months later, they are set to retain government, possibly with a majority, and that is largely thanks to Donald Trump.
Canadian Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and his wife Anaida at a campaign rally in British Columbia.Credit: AP
True, Trudeau’s decision to stand aside and hand the reins to a new leader helped immensely. But it was the combination of a fresh face at the helm and the agent of chaos in Washington that led Canadians to reconsider their determination to chuck out the old government.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, like Dutton, has been accused of being a poor man’s version of Trump – “maple leaf MAGA”, as they say in Canada. For many years, he was a political attack dog with a penchant for playing hardball, calling people names and mauling the media.
The success of the MAGA movement is seductive for conservative parties worldwide. But America is not the world, and much of the world really doesn’t like what they’ve seen from Trump 2.0.
Lowy Institute polling shows Australians’ trust in the US has collapsed to record lows under Trump. We were never enamoured with him to begin with; only about one in five or so preferred him to Kamala Harris in a poll taken last year.
Canada is obviously a special case, being the US’s neighbour and also the subject of Trump’s most extreme attacks. In Canada, Trump presents a genuine crisis, and crises usually advantage incumbent governments.
But the Canadian experience suggests that rather than rushing to elect their own version of Trump, voters become more wary of their conservatives. In Canada, especially, people wondered whether Poilievre would sufficiently stand up to the US president.
Moreover, it’s just the vibe of the thing – people look at the US going hard in one direction and think: let’s not copy that.
To be fair, Poilievre gained seats. He may yet hold the Liberals to minority government. But that is a major letdown for a party that once enjoyed a 25-point poll lead.
The big loser on election night was the progressive New Democratic Party, which shed half its vote. Its leader, Jagmeet Singh, was among more than a dozen NDP parliamentarians who were set to lose their seats, and the party was poised to lose party status.
Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party was the biggest loser in Canada’s election. Credit: AP
Ultimately, those progressive voters, spooked by Poilievre and scared of Trump, opted for Mark Carney’s Liberals.
Mark Carney is not exactly the consummate political candidate. He has no experience in electoral politics: he’s an economist who studied at Harvard and Oxford, worked at Goldman Sachs and went on to run central banks in Canada and the UK.
He doesn’t light up the stage; he speaks capably but carefully. Daniel Beland, director of the Institute for the Study of Canada at McGill University, described him in The Guardian as “a boring guy who in general doesn’t have a lot of charisma”.
“Boring guy” Mark Carney has little electoral experience.Credit: AP
But he suits the moment. He is a steady hand at a time of chaos, and someone with the financial literacy and experience to negotiate with Trump the businessman.
The dynamic is different in Australia, and far less intense. Trump is not breathing down the country’s neck on a daily basis. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese may be a steady hand, but Dutton can say he is better placed as a conservative to talk to Trump and secure a deal, and has exploited Albanese’s failure to get the president back on the phone.
Still, the implications from Canada are obvious. For conservatives, the Trump effect is difficult to escape.
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