The NRL world order is shifting. Can all-out attack topple the Panthers?

The rule of the NRL jungle is well known, and I don’t see it changing this year – you have to finish in the top four to win the premiership.

Last year the Broncos finished fourth with 36 points. In 2024, Cronulla set the cut-off at 38.

And even though we’re only just passing the halfway mark of this season, I’ve got the Panthers and Warriors already locked into a top-four finish. So two spots remain for two more title contenders – and this is where the 2026 run home gets really intriguing.

Here’s how I see the rest of the season playing out, the stars who will decide our title contenders, and a new NRL world order emerging.

Four on top: The genuine title contenders

1st: Panthers (24 points, two byes left)

No surprises here at all. They’re the title favourites and deservedly so. Their style, structure and systems hold them in such good stead and is custom-made for the biggest games on the calendar.

Even without the NRL’s best player, Nathan Cleary, and NSW and Australia captain Isaah Yeo, there was no change in Penrith’s approach in a quality Sunday night contest against the Warriors.

The big thing for Ivan Cleary compared to 2025 is that their stunning start this year allows them to manage and rest players when needed throughout Origin and leading into the finals. If Penrith stay fully fit, they’re going to be near-impossible to beat.

MVPs: Nathan Cleary, Dylan Edwards and Moses Leota

2nd: Warriors (20 points, nine wins, three losses, one bye left)

It is no surprise, given Andrew Webster worked under Cleary at Penrith and has successfully taken the same playing style to the Warriors, that they hold up under the pressure of big games and deserve all the success coming their way.

They’ll enjoy a huge groundswell of support in New Zealand, and young forwards such as Leka Halasima, Jacob Laban, Demitric Vaimauga and Tanner Stowers-Smith add firepower to such a well-balanced pack.

My only worry is in the spine: do they have a serious X-factor among them come finals time?

MVPs: James Fisher-Harris, Taine Tuaupiki and their young forwards.

3rd: Roosters (18 points, seven wins, four losses, two byes left)

I’m not sold on the Roosters yet, because they’re so inconsistent and the difference between their good and bad footy is massive compared to other teams. Their ball handling can be absolutely horrible sometimes, and I wonder if they might need to switch Hugo Savala into the halves occasionally when they’re losing their way, as a steadying influence.

The Roosters’ roster should have them playing on grand final day. But the damning stat of how they’ve performed against powerhouses Penrith and Melbourne still stands – they’ve won just three of their past 27 against them.

MVPs: James Tedesco, Sam Walker, Victor Radley.

7th: Dolphins (16 points, six wins, five losses, two byes left)

The Dolphins might be slightly further down the ladder right now, but I think they’re a red-hot chance of premiership-winning run. Billy Slater, who isn’t prone to making outrageous statements like some in the Channel Nine commentary box, has them as his premiership favourites too.

I rate their backline as the best in the NRL given their speed and talent. They’ve got a well-balanced pack, good bench back-up and Izzy Katoa running the show at No.7. On current form, I think they’ll finish in the top four.

MVPs: Isaiya Katoa, Herbie Farnworth, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow.

The chasing pack: Staying fit will decide their season

4th: Knights (18 points, eight wins, four losses, one bye left)

Just behind those leading sides, I’ve got the Knights. They need their absolute best 17 on the park to compete with the top sides, and when they do, they’re fast, creative and can score plenty of points.

My concern is their middle forward depth and their run into the semis – from round 18 they face nothing but top-eight teams except for the Broncos and Titans.

MVPs: Kalyn Ponga, Jacob Saifiti, Dylan Brown.

5th: Sea Eagles (16 points, seven wins, five losses, one bye left)

Manly have a reasonable run home and if there’s one team that can swoop from outside my top four, it’s the Sea Eagles. If they can earn that second chance with a top-four finish, I think they’ve got the strike power to win the entire competition, but they need to stay fit as well.

They’ve got strike on both edges in Haumole Olakau’atu and Tolu Koula, and of course, Tom Trbojevic has to be fit and firing at finals time.

MVPs: Tom Trbojevic, Haumole Olakau’atu, Tolu Koula.

6th: Rabbitohs (16 points, six wins, five losses, two byes left)

When they’re on and flying, the Bunnies are difficult to stop. Especially if their forwards can give their left edge space, then Cody Walker and Latrell Mitchell feeding Alex Johnston is a match-winning combination.

And they have supercoach Wayne Bennett pulling the strings, too – he’s an x-factor all on his own. Their fitness though, as it’s been for the past two years, is the big question. But if Latrell is in a mood come finals time, every other side will be very nervous.

MVPs: Latrell Mitchell, Cody Walker, Cameron Murray.

8th: Sharks (16 points, six wins, five losses, two byes left)

The big question mark remains over the Sharks: do they have an extra gear come finals time? They’ll always be pushing around the bottom half of the top eight, and Craig Fitzgibbon has built an honest, quality squad, but I don’t know about hitting that next level.

MVPs: Braydon Trindall, Ronaldo Mulitalo, Addin Fonua-Blake.

9th: Cowboys (16 points, eight wins, five losses, three byes left)

North Queensland’s big advantage is the three byes up their sleeve, and they’re just behind Manly for mine in terms of making a top-four run. Thomas Mikaele’s emergence this year has added back-up to Jason Taumalolo and Reuben Cotter in the middle.

Scott Drinkwater is such a creative, exciting player, while Tom Dearden is all heart and class. I like their young outside backs, too, but the next seven weeks make for a tough run. We’ll know exactly what they’re made of soon enough.

If they survive that period, their last three games of the regular season are against the Eels (away) and the Tigers and Raiders in Townsville. They could storm home late.

MVPs: Tom Dearden, Scott Drinkwater and their middle forwards.

The rest: Can anyone really come from the clouds?

Sitting well down the ladder are 2025 premiers Brisbane (11th), minor premiers Canberra (12th) and in 13th place Melbourne – the most consistent team of the past 20 years.

The NRL’s 2026 world order will look quite different from here on because, realistically, only one, if any, of these teams can make a proper run at the top four.

If I have to pick one, it’s the Raiders. When their game plan clicks, it’s phenomenal to watch. But they can only afford two or three losses at most for the rest of the season, so it’s obviously a huge challenge.

Brisbane’s form is up and down like a yo-yo. I can’t see them fixing things enough to run that far up the ladder. And Melbourne do have three byes left, but play twice after Origin when they won’t be able to rest their superstars. That all-important top four is a bridge too far for mine.

Big guns are back on the beaches

Thursday night we’re off to Brookvale, where Manly have the home-ground advantage and Jamal Fogarty’s booming boot against South Sydney. If there’s a big southerly blowing as predicted, his kicking game is potentially the difference.

The Sea Eagles welcome back Olakau’atu and Koula after falling flat last week against the Sharks. Manly’s back five were poor against Cronulla. They need to up their yardage metres and Koula is a big part of that.

The Bunnies still don’t have Latrell, but Brandon Smith, David Fifita, Cameron Murray (back from Origin) and Campbell Graham are all welcome inclusions. Souths need them, too, because they’re coming off back-to-back losses against the Dolphins and Cowboys. I’m tipping the home side in a close one.

Joey’s tip: Sea Eagles by two
First try-scorer: Jason Saab
Man of the match: Haumole Olakau’atu

Teddy v his NSW No.1 successor

The forecast says it will be four degrees come kick-off time in Canberra. Trust me, that’ll feel like zero. The Roosters’ ball control last week was atrocious, while Canberra were really strong against North Queensland, particularly with Hudson Young and Ethan Strange combining down their left edge.

As always with the Raiders, when their offloads stick, they’re so dangerous. The match-up I’m looking forward to most is the old bull James Tedesco against the next Blues fullback, Kaeo Weekes.

I’ve got no doubt that Weekes will step into the Origin arena at some point in the next few years, and eventually succeed Teddy and Dylan Edwards in the No.1 jumper. Weekes and Tedesco play similar styles – Teddy has the experience, Kaeo has the advantage of young legs.

The forward battle between these two teams will be a cracker too, and I think Canberra strings together back-to-back wins at home.

Joey’s tip: Raiders by six
First try-scorer: Xavier Savage
Man of the match: Joe Tapine

Another Red V upset

The Dragons rolling Brisbane at Suncorp Stadium last weekend was one of the biggest upsets of the past couple of years, and I’m backing them to do it again against the Sharks. Cronulla completed at 95 per cent and were strong and solid for a lot of their win over Manly, but they still clocked off and almost ended up losing.

I love the young crop of Dragons forwards coming through and when I think about how they’ll go with their 2027 signings like Scott Drinkwater, Keaon Koloamatangi, Luke Metcalf and Connor Watson, I can see them pushing back up towards that pack around the edge of the top eight again. I think they’ll have more joy again in Sunday’s local derby.

Joey’s tip: Dragons by four
First try-scorer: Moses Suli
Man of the match: Damien Cook