Source :- THE AGE NEWS
The introduction of a top 10 has taken the AFL into the territory World Wrestling Entertainment once owned as entertainment begins to trump integrity.
But it is having its desired effect, with Carlton supporters suddenly using the famous Dumb and Dumber line, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?” after three consecutive wins under interim coach Josh Fraser, and West Coast fans checking their fixture to see what lies ahead.
The 14th-placed Blues are now out to beat the bottom-of-the-ladder Essendon on Sunday night and the 15th-placed Eagles are hoping to account for the Power, who are 16th, because the result affects their finals chances. The Saints, with wins over 10th, 14th, 15th, 16th and 17th so far, are still in the race for a finals spot.
What a time to be alive.
Apart from a general disdain for the wildcard weekend concept, it wasn’t until the Blues knocked off the Cats last Friday night that we really tuned into the fixture and finals changes the AFL have designed to drag the best clubs down and give supporters of battling clubs a chance to be involved.
There is a reason the weighted 6-6-6 rule (where ladder positions from the previous season determine clubs’ double-up opponents the following year) was amended so Geelong and Collingwood became the first teams since it was introduced to play four opponents who finished in the top six last season.
It’s to drag those clubs back to the field. If that doesn’t work, then the top 10 allows more than half the competition to squeeze into finals.
The introduction of a top 10 and wildcard weekend has three other implications for the competition:
- A top-six finish is vital if you are serious about winning the flag
- After round 12, 15 teams are still in the finals mix
- Percentage is critical, as are the opponents teams face twice
With virtually half the season done, we take a look at each implication, and what lies ahead in the race to a different-looking finish line as round 12 starts with Geelong playing Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs facing Hawthorn for the second time this season.
The fight for a top-six spot
1st Fremantle (44 points), 2nd Sydney (40), 3rd Hawthorn (34), 4th Geelong (32), 5th Gold Coast (28), 6th Melbourne (28), 7th Western Bulldogs (28), 8th Adelaide (24), 9th Brisbane Lions (24), 10th GWS (24).
The 10 realistic premiership contenders currently sit inside the top 10. The 10th-placed Giants are just a game behind sixth-placed Melbourne after 12 games each. Of course with byes, Adelaide and Gold Coast have played 11 matches so have a game in hand compared to the other contenders.
The Demons can take advantage of their good start to the season as the only current top-10 team with double-up games against both Richmond and Essendon. They play both teams in the second half of the season for a second time.
Geelong, Adelaide, Hawthorn and the Brisbane Lions play both Essendon and Richmond for the first time in the second half of the season.
Sydney and the Giants also have dates with Essendon ahead of them but not Richmond. The Western Bulldogs play Richmond in the run home but have already faced Essendon. Fremantle have played the bottom two already.
Teams fighting for somewhere inside the top 10
5th Gold Coast (28 points), 6th Melbourne (28), 7th Western Bulldogs (28), 8th Adelaide (24), 9th Brisbane Lions (24), 10th GWS (24), 11th Collingwood (22), 12th St Kilda (20), 13th North Melbourne (20), 14th Carlton (16), 15th West Coast (16).
The top four teams – Fremantle, Sydney, Hawthorn and Geelong – should finish in the top six unless their form drops off dramatically.
The Eagles and Carlton remain realistic chances to play in a final despite winning just four of their first 12 matches and, in Carlton’s case, parting ways with their coach.
West Coast have not won this many matches at this stage of the season since 2021 and are starting to find some form, with competitive performances in the past five rounds translating to two wins in their past three matches.
They have winnable matches against Port Adelaide, North Melbourne and Carlton in their next three, with the round-16 match against the Blues to have a huge bearing on both clubs’ finals chances. The Eagles also play seven of their remaining 11 matches at Optus Stadium. Carlton only leave Victoria once.
The Blues have been competitive for most of the season, their time-in-front percentage belying their low ladder position with matches against Essendon, Richmond and West Coast to come between now and July 7, before a tougher run home includes matches against Fremantle and Hawthorn.
St Kilda have improved this season but can’t beat the teams above them. They still have two matches against Sydney and a match against Geelong mixed in with must-win games against Essendon, Richmond, Port Adelaide and Carlton. They need to snag wins over North Melbourne, the Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast to make finals.
The all-important percentage
After round 12, percentage is all that is separating sixth from seventh, and ninth from 10th.
It’s more of a factor with 10 finals spots up for grabs then it was when the field was limited to just eight.
Sydney, currently second and a game behind Fremantle, have a percentage of 152.4, 17.2 percentage points above their nearest rival on that count.
The Swans increased their percentage by 43.9 when they beat West Coast in round four and 9.9 when they thrashed the Tigers on the weekend.
That shows the need to cash in when the opportunity arises, even in an era when managing player loads is essential.
If you thought the discussion was wild in the past about fixture inequity, then brace yourself for what lies ahead as the weighted rule will need adjusting once Tasmania enters, while the draft rules favour the bottom-five teams.
Good luck explaining to supporters what happens next if you finish between 11th and 13th.
The top 10 has changed everything. No one has noticed yet, but the run home promises to be nasty.
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