Source : INDIA TODAY NEWS
Six months after the United States and Israel attacked Iran in an effort to topple its clerical leadership and reshape the Middle East, the region has changed in ways they had not hoped for. Iran survived the killing of senior leaders and weeks of heavy bombing, and has since used the Strait of Hormuz as a powerful source of leverage.
The fallout has spread across the region. Gulf Arab states have seen worrying gaps in the American security umbrella they have relied on for decades, while Israel, despite major military gains, faces growing isolation and the risk of a deeper break with the US. Prospects of normalising ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia have also receded further.
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When the US and Israel launched their attack on February 28, they hoped to remove Iran’s ruling system and replace it with a pro-Western government. Instead, they ended up with what Barbara Leaf, a former ambassador who served as assistant secretary of state for the Middle East in the Biden administration, called a “hardened and very radical regime”. “That is going to be exceptionally difficult to deal with, to say the least,” she said. Iran’s “confidence has grown over the months that it cannot only survive, but it can prevail, it can reset the regional landscape,” she added.
Before the attack, Iran appeared more vulnerable than at any time since Saddam Hussein’s Iraq invaded in 1980. Its currency had collapsed, triggering some of the biggest anti-government protests in its history. Those protests were brutally crushed in January, with thousands killed. Iran had also been hit hard in a 12-day war the previous summer, when Israel and the US struck its military and nuclear sites, while its militant allies were weakened in the wars that followed Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack from Gaza.
But the situation shifted soon after the first US and Israeli strikes. Iran’s leaders were quickly replaced, and people sheltering from the war did not respond to calls from the attackers to rise up again. Iran then effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for oil and gas trade, and attacked Gulf countries hosting US troops, unsettling the global economy. US President Donald Trump agreed to a ceasefire in April and signed a deal with Iran in June, but that agreement fell apart within weeks.
Iran is now seeking permanent control over the strait to deter future attacks and secure other concessions, while refusing to give ground on its disputed nuclear programme. Analysts say that carries risks, especially as the US tightens its blockade and threatens fresh sanctions on Iran’s already battered economy. “Iran has demonstrated that Hormuz gives it significant leverage, but prolonged disruption also hurts its neighbours, China, and the global economy, while encouraging alternatives to the strait,” said Yoel Guzansky, an expert on Iran and the Gulf at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies. “Tehran’s danger is confusing its ability to survive with victory and demanding more than its leverage can deliver,” he said.
The war has also shaken Gulf confidence in US security guarantees. For decades, Washington has protected wealthy Gulf oil exporters through a large regional military presence, helping secure energy markets and deter threats from Iraq and later Iran. This time, however, Iran not only struck Israel but also targeted Gulf countries that had hoped to stay out of the conflict. It hit US bases and critical energy infrastructure, stretching air defences and using up American interceptor supplies.
Iran also responded to attacks on its civilian infrastructure by hitting neighbouring countries’ desalination plants, raising fears that a war launched without consulting Gulf states could lead to devastating attacks on their water and electricity systems. “The fact that the war began without a clear political objective and against the advice of key regional partners, and that there has not been clear evidence of a Plan B once the initial attacks failed to dislodge the Iranian regime, is likely to undermine confidence in the US across the region and may take some time to repair,” said Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Gulf expert at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. Last month, Saudi Arabia entered a new defence pact with Pakistan and Turkiye, offering an early sign that long-standing US allies may look for other arrangements. Even so, Ulrichsen said, “The dilemma facing Gulf states is there is no viable alternative to the full range of defence and security networks with the US.”
For Israel, the war has brought further battlefield gains but also higher political costs. Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah fired missiles into Israel days after the conflict began, prompting heavy Israeli airstrikes and another ground invasion. Israel has reoccupied large parts of southern Lebanon, adding to its broader territorial gains since the October 7 attack. But the military successes have come amid deepening international isolation. Israel has been widely accused of genocide in Gaza, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been indicted by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity, which Israel strongly denies.
Israeli officials are particularly concerned by the scale of eroding support in the US. That trend gathered pace as some critics argued that Israel had helped draw the US into another Middle East war, a view that the Trump administration has at times appeared to echo. As the conflict settled into a stalemate over the summer, outspoken critics of Israel won key Democratic primaries in the US, while more than half of House Democrats voted to cut aid to Israel. Israel has also faced mounting criticism from the right.
The strain has also reduced the chances of stronger regional ties. Normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia now looks more distant. “The conflicts that have swept across the region since October 7 have led officials in Saudi Arabia to view the current Israeli leadership as contributing to regional instability and not therefore a viable diplomatic partner at the moment,” Ulrichsen said.
Six months on, the attack on Iran has left a more entrenched leadership in Tehran, fresh doubts in the Gulf about American protection, and a more isolated Israel with weaker prospects of closer ties with Saudi Arabia. The military campaign changed the region, but it did not bring the outcome the US and Israel had sought.
With PTI Inputs
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SOURCE :- TIMES OF INDIA
