Source : INDIA TODAY NEWS
The fallout from Israel’s expanding military campaign in Lebanon may soon begin to haunt the global economy. After disruption in oil and trade flow through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran and its allies threatened action around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s busiest shipping routes.
On Monday, Iranian state-linked media reported that Tehran was suspending indirect talks with the US because of Israeli military operations in Lebanon, to which President Donald Trump said he did not care if the talks collapse.
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He also announced a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. Lebanon confirmed a partial ceasefire. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would continue military operations in southern Lebanon, where ground forces are pushing toward the Zaharani River, their deepest incursion in Lebanon in 25 years.
Iran has been reiterating that no talks can move forward while Israeli forces continue military operations in Lebanon and Gaza. Netanyahu’s intention to continue the war indicates the conflict is far from over, which again puts transit through Bab al-Mandeb Strait in danger.
WHY BAB AL-MANDEB IS SIGNIFICANT
Bab al-Mandeb sits at the southern entrance of the Red Sea between Yemen and the Horn of Africa. At its narrowest point, the strait is only about 29 kilometres wide.
Despite its size, it plays an enormous role in global commerce.
The waterway serves as a gateway to the Suez Canal and connects Asia, Europe and parts of Africa through one of the busiest shipping corridors in the world. Nearly 15 per cent of global maritime trade passes through the strait every year.
Oil tankers, container ships and bulk cargo vessels rely on the route to move goods between continents.
Any serious disruption could force ships to take the much longer route around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. That would add significant travel time, increase fuel costs and drive up shipping expenses.
The impact would eventually reach consumers through higher prices for energy and imported goods.
IRAN’S NEW FRONT IN MIDDLE EAST CRISIS
Esmail Qaani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, linked the future of Bab al-Mandeb directly to events in Lebanon and Gaza.
“The Zionists attacks in Lebanon and Gaza, under blatant American support, will push the Resistance Axis to strengthen its support for both fronts, and work to activate other fronts, and make the maritime situation in the Bab al-Mandab Strait similar to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz,” he said.
He also warned that Israel’s actions could trigger consequences.
“And the collapsing Zionist entity should know that its simultaneous crimes in southern Lebanon and Gaza will plunge it into a whirlpool of Hezbollah’s operations and a new storm of Palestinian resistance operations.”
THE HOUTHI FACTOR
Any threat to Bab al-Mandeb immediately turns attention toward Yemen’s Houthi movement, one of Iran’s closest regional allies.
The group has a track record of targeting commercial shipping in the area.
In 2023, Houthi fighters launched attacks on vessels passing through the strait, saying they were acting in response to Israel’s war in Gaza. The attacks forced many shipping companies to reroute vessels around southern Africa.
Industry estimates suggest those disruptions cost the global economy around $20 billion annually between 2023 and 2025.
While the Houthis have not officially commented on the latest Iranian reports, senior Houthi official Mohammed Mansour previously indicated that closing the strait remained an option.
In March, he said shutting Bab al-Mandeb “is a viable option, and the consequences will be borne by the American and Israeli aggressors.”
The war launched by the US and Israel against Iran is increasingly affecting global energy supplies and international trade routes. Efforts to end the conflict appear to be losing momentum.
– Ends
With inputs from agencies
SOURCE :- TIMES OF INDIA
