Source : Perth Now news
Australians are being urged to get ready now for a hotter, drier and more dangerous spring, with fire authorities warning a broad sweep of the country faces elevated bushfire risk.
A rare mix of climate forces is driving the threat, raising concerns across most states and territories.
Emergency chiefs and weather analysts have pointed to a troubling combination of dry ground, unusually warm conditions and heavy vegetation in some regions, creating the sort of setup that can quickly turn hazardous.
In its national briefing released last week, the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC) warned of heightened fire risk across northern and south-eastern NSW, south-east Queensland, north-eastern Tasmania, parts of Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and large areas of the Northern Territory.
AFAC chief executive Rob Webb said the danger would not look the same everywhere, with some communities facing severe dryness while others are dealing with heavy fuel loads built up over wetter periods.
“The variety of risk factors across different regions reinforces the need for communities to understand their local conditions and prepare early,” Mr Webb said.
El Nino, which the Bureau of Meteorology confirmed in June, is strengthening in the tropical Pacific and could peak as a very strong event later in spring or summer.
The Bureau reported July’s equatorial upper ocean heat anomalies were the highest on record since monitoring began in 1979, while the Southern Oscillation Index fell to minus 29.1, the lowest July reading on record.
At the same time, forecasters expect a positive Indian Ocean Dipole to take hold over spring.
That pattern tends to reduce the moisture reaching Australia and lifts the odds of warmer, drier conditions across large parts of the country.
Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino described the combination of a positive IOD and a strong El Nino as a “double-whammy” climate driver.
Those patterns are unfolding as ocean temperatures around the world remain exceptionally high.
The Bureau found global sea surface temperatures in July were the warmest on record for that month, while waters off southern NSW and along Tasmania’s east and south coasts were sitting 2 to 3C above average in early August.
For most Aussies, Spring is shaping as warmer than usual, rainfall is expected to be patchy or below average in many populated southern and eastern areas, and fire conditions could worsen quickly if hot, windy weather arrives.
In NSW and the ACT, the concern is centred on northern inland and south-eastern districts, where dry conditions have already stripped moisture from the ground and vegetation.
Bureau forecasts point to a strong chance of unusually low rainfall in southern and eastern NSW, along with a very high likelihood of hotter than average days and nights.
Queensland is facing a split outlook. The east and north are expected to be drier, while central and western parts of the state could see more rain.
In the south-east, however, the dry signal has been strong enough for fire authorities to lift concern, and parts of the state may also face a delayed start to the wet season.
Victoria is also in the firing line. Earlier soil moisture helped support winter crops, but forecasts for below-average rain through spring have raised concerns for agriculture.
At the same time, parts of the state have experienced record warmth in recent months, drying out the landscape and increasing fire danger in southern and eastern areas.
Tasmania faces one of the clearest dry signals in the country, with below-average rainfall expected across the state and north-eastern districts singled out for increased bushfire risk.
Unusually warm seas around the island are also helping drive a strong chance of much warmer than average days and nights.
In Western Australia, the picture is more mixed. The far south-west is dealing with serious dryness, while parts of the north-west are carrying heavy fuel loads after earlier rains linked to ex-tropical systems.
That means some areas are at risk because the land is parched, while others are vulnerable because there is simply more to burn.
South Australia is facing similar contrasts. Central parts of the state and the Simpson Desert region have been highlighted for increased fire risk from September, with the threat linked to vegetation that grew strongly during earlier rain and has since dried out.
Southern and eastern areas are also leaning towards a drier and hotter spring.
Large parts of the Northern Territory are expected to face a longer and more severe fire season, especially if the wet season arrives late in the Top End.
Further south, districts such as Barkly and Tanami are heading towards their peak danger period in October and November, with extensive dry vegetation adding to the risk.
The broad outlook is already clear enough for authorities to issue an early warning.
For households and landholders, that means checking local fire plans, clearing around properties where appropriate, and paying attention to conditions well before summer begins.
“Communities are encouraged to stay informed, monitor local conditions and follow advice from their fire and emergency services as the season unfolds,” Mr Webb said.
