Source :- THE AGE NEWS
The AFL insists the wildcard round was the start of the finals, but there is no doubt the post-season is here once the calendar turns over to September.
Four big finals are on the menu this week, and we have taken an early look at each of them.
The Dockers lost two of their past three matches, but still finished a game clear atop the ladder with a 19-4 record, including a 14-match winning streak between rounds two and 16. Brisbane’s flag pedigree is the sole reason Justin Longmuir’s team is only the second flag favourite. Five Dockers – Jordan Clark, Shai Bolton, Josh Treacy, Luke Jackson and Murphy Reid – were All-Australians, compared to Nick Watson and Jarman Impey being the only Hawks.
Fremantle trailed Hawthorn by 19 points in the final quarter in round nine, with Jack Gunston slotting five first-half goals to put the Hawks on the brink of an upset. Jackson, Bolton, Treacy and midfield guns Hayden Young and Caleb Serong were instrumental in the Dockers’ come-from-behind victory.
Hawthorn’s Jai Newcombe-led on-ball brigade’s ability to compete with their Fremantle counterparts will be crucial in limiting supply to Treacy, Jye Amiss and Patrick Voss. That tall trio has combined for 153 goals this season, so Tom Barrass, Josh Battle and James Sicily – if he plays in defence – have big roles to play. Will the Hawks go with two specialist ruckmen, or use Mabior Chol to support Lloyd Meek?
The Dockers have options for Watson, but versatile defender Heath Chapman – who was managed in round 24 – might get first crack. Brennan Cox quelled Gunston after his fast start, but is out with a calf injury, so Luke Ryan will hope to fare better than last time.
2026: Fremantle 12.16 (88) d Hawthorn 11.7 (73) at Optus Stadium in round nine.
Marc McGowan’s tip: Fremantle by 12 points.
A shock round 18 loss to the Giants left the Cats in ninth and vulnerable to even make the wildcard round, but they won six straight games by an average margin of 35 points to end the season. Jeremy Cameron missed all bar the last of those due to an AC joint injury. Shannon Neale and Ollie Henry helped fill the void, each kicking 16 goals across the final six rounds. Bailey Smith – who joined Ollie Dempsey in the All-Australian team – was also in white-hot form during that period, averaging 34 disposals.
Carlton are one of the league’s best-performed teams since Josh Fraser replaced Michael Voss in round 10, before which the Blues had a 1-8 record. They boast 12 wins, one draw and two losses since, including rallying from a 21-point deficit to beat Melbourne on Saturday night in the wildcard finals.
One of the early victories under Fraser was by four points over Geelong, thanks to a last-gasp Patrick Cripps goal that capped a 30-disposal performance. Sam Walsh and Jagga Smith were also standouts that night, while Jacob Weitering and Harry Dean stood tall down back, and Will Hayward kicked three goals.
The Blues rode a similar fairytale run all the way to a 2023 preliminary final.
The Blues have won their past three games against the Cats, and four of their past five. But Geelong have a sizeable edge in experience, particularly in big matches, and are strong across every line.
Like Carlton, Geelong also have an emerging 23-and-under crop, led by Dempsey, Connor O’Sullivan and Lawson Humphries.
2026: Carlton 12.16 (88) d Geelong 12.12 (84) at the MCG in round 12.
Marc McGowan’s tip: Geelong by 16 points.
The Swans brushed off a week from hell with a 53-point victory over North Melbourne without Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, Nick Blakey, Riley Bice and James Jordon. None of those suspended five will play again this season, and the qualifying final against the Lions provides the first major test of their depth.
Sydney won nine of their first 10 games this season, and finished with an 18-5 record, but lost to Geelong, Brisbane, Fremantle and Adelaide down the stretch, showing frailty against elite opposition.
The Lions, who are chasing a flag three-peat, split their first 12 matches of the year, but went 10-1 to close the home-and-away season – the one blemish an inexplicable 76-point thumping to Carlton. The team’s dramatic turnaround was led by All-Australians Harris Andrews, Logan Morris and Zac Bailey, plus Lachie Neale and Will Ashcroft.
Brisbane overcame a signature Warner display (28 disposals, four goals) to blitz the Swans by 43 points in June, in a game their biggest stars all fired. Sydney’s suspended five were all among their top 10 ball-winners against the Lions, so the challenge will be even greater without them.
Errol Gulden, who made his return from shoulder surgery in that Brisbane clash, has averaged 40 disposals the past five matches, including a 41-touch, six-clearance effort against the Kangaroos.
With Heeney out, the Lions might send Josh Dunkley to Gulden instead. Brisbane will regain Hugh McCluggage, while the Swans hope to have Joel Amartey and Justin McInerney available.
2026: Sydney Swans 15.14 (104) d Brisbane Lions 8.12 (60) at the SCG in round one.
Brisbane Lions 19.12 (126) d Sydney Swans 12.11 (83) at the Gabba in round 16.
Marc McGowan’s tip: Brisbane Lions by 24 points.
Adelaide needed just one quarter to blow the Bulldogs away in their last meeting in June, piling on nine goals to two on their way to a 57-point triumph. Captain Jordan Dawson produced a virtuoso performance with 32 disposals and three goals to comfortably be best afield.
The Crows snuck into the top six when the Demons lost in the final round, but they had wins over Geelong, Melbourne and Sydney in the second half of the season.
The Bulldogs have been less convincing, including some lopsided defeats to some of the top contenders, but know they have already beaten Adelaide in Adelaide this year. Luke Beveridge’s squad also seems to be building momentum at the right time, starting with a draw with in-form Carlton, followed by wins over the Demons and Collingwood in the past three weeks. The brilliant Marcus Bontempelli and Ed Richards were front and centre in the last fortnight, and will be vital again.
The Crows have dismissed concern about Taylor Walker, which will help maintain a key advantage in attack – alongside Riley Thilthorpe and Darcy Fogarty – over the Bulldogs’ outsized backline. They join Geelong as the only club this season with five players who have kicked at least 30 goals, headlined by Josh Rachele.
Whether the Dogs can quell Adelaide’s forward-half potency, including midfield-forward threat Izak Rankine, could decide the contest.
2026: Western Bulldogs 14.10 (94) d Adelaide 13.10 (88) at Adelaide Oval in round two.
Adelaide 19.7 (121) d Western Bulldogs 9.10 (64) at Marvel Stadium in round 14.
Marc McGowan’s tip: Adelaide by 31 points.
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