In the lead-up to Israel’s high-stakes election on October 27, few political players have stirred controversies quite like Ra’am and the Joint List. Representing Palestinian citizens—about 20 percent of Israel’s population—these parties are polling for 13 seats. If results hold, they could decide whether former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or the Zionist opposition can form a government.
With neither Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc nor the opposition projected to secure a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, Arab-led parties might end up wielding unprecedented influence as government kingmakers.
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## Arab-Led Parties: From Margin to Pivotal Power
Ra’am (United Arab List) and the Joint List, which includes Ta’al, Hadash, and Balad, are once again in the spotlight. Neither Likud nor the Zionist opposition wants them formally in a ruling coalition, yet both may depend on their votes for important confidence motions.
Ra’am under Mansour Abbas has evolved politically in subtle but significant ways. Since breaking from its religious council in late 2025, the party independently set its candidate list and included Yoav Segalovitz—a Jewish Zionist and former deputy public security minister—just below Abbas on the slate.
Despite facing sharp criticism from Netanyahu and others, the Joint List has left room for maneuver. While it insists it will not join Netanyahu’s government, it says it could provide external support under certain conditions—such as advancing Palestinian statehood and tackling crime and discrimination.
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## The Ultra-Orthodox’s Unshakeable Vote
Ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties, namely Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ), have long been key pillars in right-wing coalitions. Both are expected to win seven to eight seats each. Their agendas focus heavily on shielding ultra-Orthodox youths from military draft, securing family welfare benefits, and defending their own religious education systems.
These parties broke ranks earlier this year: UTJ left the coalition entirely, while Shas withdrew from government positions and boycotted key legislation. Still, they remain one of the few reliable blocks that can tip the balance in Netanyahu’s favor.
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## Legal Battles, Disqualifications, and Political Posturing
The campaign has seen some of the most controversial moves in recent memory. Likud and Otzma Yehudi petitioned to bar Ra’am and the Joint List from running, citing concerns about national security and support for enemy groups. On September 23, the Central Elections Committee disqualified both lists and two individual candidates.
However, this decision was short-lived. On October 2, Israel’s Supreme Court unanimously reversed the disqualifications on all counts. The court’s ruling came shortly after Balad’s Sami Abu Shehadeh withdrew his candidacy when it became clear his disqualification would likely be upheld.
Ofer Cassif, from Hadash, condemned the initial disqualifications as “political rather than judicial,” suggesting fear among governing parties that their support may be needed after the vote.
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## October 7 and a Political Shift to the Right
The worst assault in decades, the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, claimed an estimated 1,200 lives in southern Israel. Its aftermath has pushed politics further right. Arab-led parties, unrelated to the event itself, have been targeted by hardliners claiming shared culpability.
The war has sharpened divisions. Netanyahu and others on the right have weaponized the incident, calling into question the loyalties of Arab parties and leveraging public fear. For opposition leaders, their reliance on ultra-Orthodox support holds its own controversy.
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## What’s at Stake?
With neither side likely to secure a clear majority, smaller parties—particularly those led by Arab or ultra-Orthodox members—stand to hold outsized power. They could make or break coalitions.
Political analyst Yossi Mekelberg of Chatham House said long-standing rhetoric aside, both Netanyahu and opposition leaders may accept support from the very parties they have condemned when necessary. He added that such alliances could alienate important voter bases, especially among Arab Israelis.
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