Source :- THE AGE NEWS
If Geelong are rattled at all by the prospect of playing Carlton in an elimination final they are hiding it well.
The Blues have beaten Geelong in four of their past five home and away clashes. They also defeated them in a pre-season practice match this year.
Nine of the 23 players who played in the win over Melbourne have never lost to the Cats while wearing a Carlton jumper.
On the flipside, five Cats have never worn a Geelong jumper to victory over Carlton.
That’s unusual given Geelong’s dominance over every other team bar the Brisbane Lions in the past five years.
Premiership forward Brad Close, who has a 42 per cent winning record over the Blues, shrugs when asked why the Blues have a good recent record against the Cats.
“We always talk about our best footy being able to beat anyone, so it’s about focusing on ourselves, but there will be some of their strengths we definitely have to take away,” Close said.
The Cats examined those strengths in a team meeting on Monday morning.
He did not reveal what Geelong focused on but Carlton’s ability to share the ball with short kicks, change the angles and set the tempo has been a key strength since Josh Fraser became interim then permanent coach.
If Carlton wants to slow the ball down then they are not afraid to possess it with a kick and catch game. If they wish to go fast they can hand off after a mark and break lines.
Their ground ball game inside 50 is also the best in the competition, which has traditionally troubled the Cats who rely on intercept marking to defend. A small defender is one gap in the Cats’ line-up with Jed Bews no longer in the senior team. It puts Tom Stewart and Lawson Humphries under pressure to deliver in that area.
In the past 10 games Carlton have been in possession 47 per cent of the time, three percentage points higher than any other team. So the first objective of the Cats will be winning the ball. The second will be breaking up the Blues’ possession chains.
That means ferocious tackling and a team defence that gives few options to the kicker and not much rope to the receiver. The early pressure rating will be telling.
However, if the most recent time they met, when the disappointing Cats lost to Carlton by four points, is any guide, they will also need to be conscious of defending centre clearance.
The Blues kicked four goals to one from centre clearance in that encounter but three of those goals came in a four-minute patch in the third quarter when Carlton steamrolled the sleepy Cats.
That period was more vital to the result than the disallowed goal to Ollie Dempsey when the Cats dominated territory, as they have done leading into finals, averaging more than 60 inside 50s per game since the bye.
Jeremy Cameron has missed most of that time and played behind the ball in the final round of the season.
Jacob Weitering, who starred against Melbourne, suspects Carlton match up well against the Cats however he is not putting too much store in past encounters.
He said Chris Scott, who coached him in the state of origin match in February, was one of the more “incredible football minds and motivators I’ve come across” which means the Blues need to be prepared for whatever is thrown at them.
“They might try and change a few things in terms of structure, but we’ll just focus on what we can control, and that’s our system, our pressure, our contest, and get after it,” Weitering said.
The match-ups will be fascinating. Shannon Neale expects Weitering to stand by him while Harry Dean could keep Jay Polkinghorne company while at the other end frustrating Stewart will rest on Will Hayward’s shoulders. If he misses, Stewart’s former teammate Francis Evans will get the gig.
Although the matches are run and done, Cameron is this week’s individual wildcard. He could play up the ground, as he did the most recent time Geelong beat Carlton in 2024. On that occasion, he kicked five goals and was best on ground, electrifying fans as he charged forward with the ball rather than leading up towards the pill.
In the middle, Geelong will miss Max Holmes, but the Cats have to decide whether Oisin Mullin should be given a second chance on Patrick Cripps after lowering his colours earlier in the season. Cripps was best on ground, repeating the form in his previous three encounters against Geelong when he has polled seven Brownlow votes.
Mullin could go to Sam Walsh, but Bailey Smith, who has not been on the winning team against Carlton since joining Geelong seems a more natural match for his endurance peer, so Jagga Smith will need to be prepared for a tag, an unwanted compliment so early in his career. Mark O’Connor seems to suit Cripps.
Smith’s fast feet has not escaped the notice of wily veteran Tom Atkins who enters his 16th final respectful but unfazed by the Carlton challenge.
“With every team you are going to come up with some talent,” Atkins said.
Jack Henry played forward the last time the two teams met but he, or emerging star Connor O’Sullivan, will be asked to quell Harry McKay, who was best on ground against the Cats in 2025.
Both teams start without scores next to their name on Friday night. It’s the first time fifth will play 10th in a final. It’s also the first time the two teams have met in a final since Carlton won the 1995 grand final against Geelong. The Cats have won 26 and lost 13 of the 39 matches against the Blues since then but Cats’ forward Shannon Neale only has his eyes on the recent record.
“I’m more excited to get one back on them. It’s probably about time we get one,” he said.
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