Source : the age
Premier Jacinta Allan will walk into her last caucus meeting before the winter break with leadership rumblings surrounding her, as Labor’s struggling popularity continues to spook parts of her caucus.
Allan stared down disaffected MPs in March, describing them as scallywags in need of a cuddle, but her leadership has again become a contentious issue for members of her party fearful of losing their seats in a November state election wipe-out.
The government has endured another difficult week in parliament, marked by a belated commitment to reform the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission, messy negotiations over campaign finance laws, and repeated questioning over character references provided by freshly minted minister Luba Grigorovitch.
It comes as the state enters an unpredictable election season, with Labor facing as serious a challenge from One Nation, as that from its traditional opponents.
The Age spoke to six Labor MPs across the factional divide who, speaking anonymously to avoid repercussions, said leadership speculation was again building and a challenge could take place before the November 28 election.
They pointed to multiple opinion polls showing both Allan’s popularity had cratered and a slump in Labor’s primary vote. A potential flashpoint is whether the next round of polling fuels or eases backbench anxiety.
The Resolve Political Monitor published by The Age will shortly be in the field canvassing voter sentiment. Its most recent published results, from a survey in April, showed that state Labor’s primary vote was 27 per cent, the Coalition 29 per cent and One Nation 21 per cent.
Just 20 per cent of voters listed Allan as preferred premier, while Opposition Leader Jess Wilson had the support of 39 per cent. They rest remained undecided.
On Thursday night, as Labor MPs dined at parliament during a break in an all-night debate on donation laws, there were multiple conversations about the government’s chances at November’s election, with reference to the party’s odds on gambling websites.
One MP told The Age that Allan may have shot herself in the foot with her about-face on IBAC’s powers.
“We needed to do something because people won’t stop talking about the $15 billion figure,” they said. “But in acting now, we’ve drawn attention to the issue again.”
Barrister Geoffrey Watson, SC, estimated earlier this year that corruption linked to the CFMEU had cost about $15 billion across the $100 billion Big Build program – a figure Allan and her ministers have repeatedly disputed.
But Labor MPs agree that despite these denials, the figure has had significant cut-through with the public, and that they have continued to hear it mentioned on social media and in their electorates.
A key test for Allan will be a caucus meeting scheduled in a week and a half – the last due before parliament rises for the winter break, a period colloquially known in political circles as “the killing season” due to a history of leadership challenges in Australian politics.
If no challenger comes forward at that meeting, it will give the premier six weeks to shore up her support before parliament resumes and the Labor caucus meets again. A challenger would have to gather the numbers needed to hold a special caucus meeting in a non-sitting week.
No one has declared their intention to challenge for the leadership and no formal discussions about a spill taken place. But two Labor MPs, from both Left and Right factions, told The Age that the leadership rumblings that emerged in March were not the end of the matter for Allan.
Any potential challenge against the premier has long centred on whether aspiring candidates could secure enough votes from Labor’s Left and Right groups to be elected.
Deputy Premier Ben Carroll, from the Right, and Transport Infrastructure Minister Gabrielle Williams and Major Events Minister Steve Dimopoulos, both from the Left, have all been touted.
They have been contacted for comment. Allan’s office is yet to respond to questions over the renewed leadership speculation.
Some MPs have spoken to Williams who has said that she would not put herself up as a leadership candidate.
Under party rules, a new Labor leader would need to win a vote of both the caucus and a ballot of party members if there is more than one nominee.
Spilling the leadership is also no simple task should Allan not willingly step aside.
Under the ALP’s national party rules adopted in 2013 in response to the instability of the Rudd and Gillard federal governments, a leadership challenge must be decided by a vote of party members and a caucus ballot, with even weight given to each.
The rules require the support of more than 60 per cent of caucus to replace a sitting prime minister, but it is not clear whether this also applies to state premiers. The current rules have never been tested in Victoria, which last had a Labor leadership spill in 1999.
One Left MP told The Age that MPs were grumpy about a “shit week” and having to stay up until 5am on Friday to pass the donation laws, and things may cool off.
“I’m not sure the numbers are there,” they said.
Another Left MP said it was unclear whether the party would benefit from a leadership change.
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