Source : Perth Now news
West Australians in the southern outskirts of Perth will head to the ballot box on Saturday to cast their votes in the Secret Harbour state by-election, in a test of Labor’s ability to hold its ground against One Nation.
The seat was left vacant by long-serving Labor MP and Navy veteran Paul Papalia after he quit politics in July because a member of his immediate family was “diagnosed with a serious illness”.
Mr Papalia, who spent much of his 19-year political career as a minister, said at the time: “I can’t continue to give this role everything it demands while also giving my family what they need from me.”
While electoral boundaries and names have shifted over the past 40 years, the area has been Labor safe seat.
But a late surge in One Nation’s support could change that, and everyone in Canberra will be watching.
What is the big picture?
A One Nation win in Secret Harbour would mark the first loss of a Labor stronghold to the populist minor party and set the tone for federal contests in 2028.
One Nation has vowed to run in every seat at the next federal election and is gunning for Labor’s territory in Western Australia firmly.
The populist party has already had some big wins this year, snatching former Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s seat of Farrer and picking up a number of seats at the South Australian state election.
It is also looking to unseat Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie, whose electorate of Canning overlaps with Secret Harbour, at the next federal poll.
Mr Hastie, a fierce critic of Senator Hanson and her party, said this week it was “really important” his state colleagues fought hard.
“We had swings towards us in the state election last year, and I had double-digit swings in the federal election,” the special forces veteran told ABC’s 7.30.
“I even flipped Labor booths – longstanding historical Labor booths – last year.
“So I think there is a strong story for the Liberal Party, but we’ve just got to fight.
“We’ve got to fight for every single vote.”
One Nation has targeted Mr Hastie with “relentless personal attacks”, with the Department of Home Affairs bolstering security at his home and electorate office.
Senator Hanson has criticised Mr Hastie for deciding to testify in a war-crimes case against Victorian Cross recipient Ben Roberts-Smith.
She has praised Mr Roberts-Smith, who denies all allegations against him, as a “war hero” who has her “respect” and admiration.
Who are main players?
Labor picked Georgia Tree to keep Secret Harbour red.
She is a former adviser to federal resources minister Madeleine King.
She also used to work in corporate relations for energy giant Woodside.
The self-described “fighter” has run her campaign on continuity – building on Mr Papalia’s legacy and leaning heavily on the Labor state government headed by Premier Roger Cook.
Ms Tree has also drawn on her working class upbringing.
She lost her mother to cancer at age nine, leaving her father to raise her and her brother “alone on a sparky’s wage”.
“I’ll fight for real cost of living relief, better schools and free TAFE, and stronger Medicare and health services, because Mum’s chemo would have bankrupted us without it,” she said in her pitch to voters.
The state Liberal opposition chose Rockingham City Councillor and local real estate agent Ryan Robertson to run against her.
An ex-Navy submariner, he has sold himself as a friend to small business and veterans whose experience as a councillor has kept him clear-eyed about the electorate’s challenges.
“This community has grown fast and the roads, housing, the health services just haven’t kept up,” he told voters.
“I hear this frustration all the time, and as a local, I feel it too.”
But One Nation’s Luke Herdegen is broadly seen as Ms Tree’s main challenger.
Other than being a local business owner, he has little-to-nothing in common with his Labor and Liberal counterparts.
He grew up in Newscastle, NSW, and held a string of blue collar jobs before settling in Western Australia and becoming an Anytime Fitness franchisee in Rockingham.
Old social media posts revealed he had a history of using cocaine – an issue that cropped up during his first media appearance with One Nation leader Pauline Hanson.
“That’s a story I put out there to try and help inspire people to live happier and healthier lives and I think it really did help a lot of people,” Mr Herdegen said.
“When I’m in the streets of Secret Harbour they’re not asking me about a blog post from 10 years ago.”
His campaign presented him as “a local business owner who stands for a fair go, a stable society, and making sure hard work is rewarded while those who need a hand actually get one”.
What are the main issues?
The race has been shaped by many of the same issues felt in other parts of the country.
An outer-metropolitan growth corridor spanning from Port Kennedy to Lakelands, Secret Harbour’s young families are struggling with mortgage stress and climbing rents, its tradies are grappling with high fuel costs and population growth is outpacing local infrastructure development.
Labor weathered a 19.8 per cent swing against it in Secret Harbour at last year’s state election, prompting the Cook government to make hefty funding pledges for community facilities, roadworks and infrastructure upgrades this time round.
What does the polling say?
Ms Tree’s ability to secure state money has done little to shift Labor’s steady lead in the polls.
The latest DemosAU poll put the party’s primary vote at 33 per cent – no different to what it was in June.
However, the Liberals fell two points while One Nation rose three, putting them neck-and-neck at 21 per cent.
Labor did lead the Liberals 54-46 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, but 45 per cent of 990 West Australians surveyed said their state was heading in the wrong direction.
That was a two point increase on June and 11 points higher than those who thought Western Australia was on the right track.
The Cook government also saw a five per cent jump in voters who thought it was “doing a bad job” on housing and cost of living.
“The attention on One Nation from the Secret Harbour by-election has hurt the Liberals more than Labor with the Liberals down two per cent on primary and Labor steady,” DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos said.
“What the statewide trend tells us for the Secret Harbour by-election is that we should see a significant swing against Labor on primary votes and One Nation is likely to be outpolling the Liberals.
“Whether One Nation can take the seat from Labor is dependent on the effectiveness of their local by-election campaign and favourable preference flows from the Liberals, right-wing minor parties, and assorted independents.”
