One Nation claims victory in Secret Harbour as last-minute votes seal Labor’s fate

One Nation has converted its popularity in opinion polls into electoral success in Western Australia, with a 30.6 per cent swing making gym owner Luke Herdegen the party’s first-ever lower house MP and nixing Labor’s efforts to retain Secret Harbour in a bruising byelection.

By 10.30pm, with 80 per cent of the vote counted, Herdegen had amassed a primary vote of 39 per cent, ahead of Labor candidate Georgia Tree’s 24.4 per cent and Liberal candidate Ryan Robertson’s 17.3 per cent.

The preference count showed Herdegen was ahead of Tree, with a two-party preferred count showing a 3.9 per cent margin.

One Nation claimed victory on Saturday, with WA leader Rod Caddies introducing Herdegen to the crowd of supporters gathered at a party function as “the next member for Secret Harbour”.

Labor refused to concede earlier in the night as it awaited vote counts from the early polling booth, but those dropped just after 10pm and sealed One Nation’s historic victory.

“You’re witnessing a result they said was impossible,” Caddies told the crowd of One Nation supporters in Karnup.

“A safe seat does not stay safe if you ignore it long enough. Tonight, Labor found it out the hard way. Secret Harbor did not send a protest, it sent a verdict.

“Western Australia just told the rest of the nation the two-party system is dead.”

Herdegen was full of praise for the roomful of volunteers that had helped the campaign.

“[Tree’s campaign] came with the big Labor machine,” Herdegen said.

“They came with their scare tactics. They came with their handlers on the polling booths, and we marched right through it.

“The days of WA Labor having a stranglehold on the outer southern suburbs; those days are over.”

Herdegen told the crowd: “There are no safe Labor seats in this state, or in this country any more.”

Tree arrived at her function at the Secret Harbour Surf Lifesaving Club just after 9pm alongside WA Premier Roger Cook.

Cook said his government had a responsibility not to shirk the message sent by Secret Harbour voters.

“It is easy to be a small target, to be a party that deals in grievances, but delivery, delivery, the grind of getting hard things done is how Labor handles that responsibility,” he said.

“The voters of Secret Harbor have spoken and regardless of the outcome tonight, we will listen.

“This campaign has been a reminder that Western Australians are doing it tough.

“We know that this is a time of high interest rates and fuel prices. People are concerned about their lifestyles and their futures, and this campaign has been a reminder about how key our priorities are to this state: jobs, health, housing, and cost of living relief.”

Tree said it was always going to be a tough night for Labor.

“We always said this campaign was going to be a fight, and it has been a fight,” she said.

“We don’t know the result now, but I’ve been humbled by the support that I’ve received from everyone in the community; it’s been so amazing.

“No matter what, we’ve run such a good race, and I’m so proud of what we’ve done.”

The byelection was triggered by the resignation of former Corrective Services minister Paul Papalia in July, when he quit politics to spend more time with an ill family member.

Papalia won the seat with a margin of 11.5 per cent in 2025.

The result represents a significant erosion of support for Labor in what was considered one of its safest seats, which the party has held in its various iterations since the 1980s.

The byelection was being considered by many pundits as a test of the recent surge in support for One Nation in opinion polls and how significantly that would translate to votes away from both Labor and Liberal parties.

Secret Harbour sits firmly in the mortgage belt of Perth’s south and, federally, sits across Liberal MP Andrew Hastie’s electorate of Canning and Labor MP Madeleine King’s electorate of Brand.

It is also considered a litmus test for all outer suburban seats nationwide where cost of living issues are manifesting as voter discontent for the Albanese government.

Earlier in the day, Hasluck Labor MP Tania Lawrence, whose federal electorate shares similarities in demographics to Secret Harbour, said her party would take into account the results.

“I think the national secretary will always have regard to every election and understand what the constituency is saying on different issues because at the end of the day, every policy we work on is framed around what the community is looking for and what they need,” she said.

At the start of the day, Cook said he would be heartbroken if Tree lost the seat, while Herdegen said the electorate was hungry for change.

No major party candidates could vote for themselves this campaign – because none of them actually lived in the electorate.

Tree lives the furthest away at 61 kilometres, which the Liberals took great delight in reminding voters with their political signage.

Behaviour at booths was mostly cordial, but Labor volunteers did wake up to some of their signs at Secret Harbour Primary School slashed by a masked man on an e-scooter in the early hours of the morning.

Police were notified.