SOURCE :- SIASAT NEWS
Hyderabad: Of the 1,10,148 electors listed for deletion from Goshamahal’s draft electoral roll of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR), an estimated 24 in every 100 carry Muslim names. This is far below the levels recorded in Hyderabad’s Old City constituencies, an analysis by Siasat.com of the Election Commission’s published Absent, Shifted, Dead and Duplicate (ASDD) list has found.
South of the Musi River, the figures run from 63 in every 100 electors having Muslim names in Charminar to 72 in Chandrayangutta and 86 in Bahadurpura. Goshamahal, which covers Begum Bazaar, Afzalgunj, Dhoolpet, Koti and Sultan Bazaar, ranks ninth among Hyderabad’s 15 Assembly constituencies by share of flagged electors with Muslim names.
The duplicate list still carries the highest Muslim-name share of the four ASDD categories in Goshamahal, as it does in the Old City seats.
37 pc of deleted voters in Goshamahal have Muslim names
In Goshamahal, those left off the draft voter rolls under the “duplicate” category constitute 7,344 out of the 1.10 lakh, of whom an estimated 37 out of every 100 carry Muslim names. It is the smallest of the four categories and the one with the highest Muslim-name share in the Assembly constituency, Siasat.com’s analysis shows.
“Dead” covers 13,237 electors, of whom an estimated 27 out of every 100 have Muslim names. “Shifted,” with the highest number of all four categories, constitutes 75,069, with an estimated 23 out of every 100 being those with Muslim names. As many as 14,498 are flagged as “absent,” with an estimated Muslim-name share of 19 out of every 100 electors in the category.
Duplicate carries the highest Muslim-name share of the four in all 15 Hyderabad constituencies without exception, ranging from 92 out of every 100 in Bahadurpura to 20 in Secunderabad Cantonment. Goshamahal follows the same pattern.
Goshamahal has the highest death share in Hyderabad
Deaths make up a larger share of Goshamahal’s list than of any other Assembly seat in Hyderabad. Of every 100 names deleted from its roll, 12 were recorded as dead. Across Hyderabad, the figure is eight out of 100. In Sanathnagar, the lowest in Hyderabad, it is under four out of every 100 flagged electors.
In absolute terms, Goshamahal has 13,237 death entries, second only to Yakutpura‘s 14,566, which comes from a substantially larger list, according to Siasat.com’s analysis.
Goshamahal electorate down by 40 per cent
Goshamahal went into the SIR exercise revision with 2,75,208 electors. Of those, 1,65,060 stayed on the draft roll – meaning that about 40 out of every 100 electors were flagged for deletion in the ASDD category.
T Raja Singh, elected on a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ticket in 2023 and who has since been suspended from the saffron outfit, polled 80,182 votes in the constituency. Nand Kishore Vyas of the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) garnered 58,725 votes. The margin was 21,457, with a total of 1,48,259 votes cast in that election.
The number of names now deleted from the draft roll is more than five times that margin and equal to about 74 per cent of all votes cast in 2023.
Age profile
Most of those left off the draft SIR roll are aged between 25 and 44, according to Siasat.com’s analysis. The largest group is people aged 35 to 44, at 34,063, followed by those aged 45 to 59 at 27,478 and 25 to 34 at 24,094. Electors above 60 account for 19,655, and those aged 18 to 24 account for 4,858.
Together, 53 per cent of them are aged between 25 and 44.
Shifted is the leading reason in every age band up to 59. Among those aged 25 to 34, 18,372 are marked shifted, 3,648 absent, 1,628 duplicate and 446 dead. Among those aged 35 to 44, the numbers are 25,515 shifted, 4,863 absent, 2,265 duplicate and 1,420 dead. In the 45 to 59 group, they are 18,468 shifted, 3,528 absent, 1,938 duplicate and 3,544 dead.
Among electors aged 18 to 24, as many as 3,253 are marked shifted, 813 absent, 721 duplicate and 71 dead.
Among those aged 60 and above, death becomes the second-largest reason. In that group, 9,461 are marked shifted and 7,756 recorded as dead, with 1,646 absent and 792 duplicate. The over-60 group accounts for 59 per cent of all death entries in the constituency.
Way to get back on the draft roll
The ECI’s position is that the 1.10 lakh electors’ enumeration forms were not received. Those who are on the ASDD list will not receive notices, unlike unmapped electors or those flagged for anomalies.
However, electors left off the draft roll can file a claim until September 16. Hearings run to November 5, which means that they have an opportunity to get enrolled in the final list that is due on November 9.
Disclaimer
Estimates in this report come from a name-based model applied to the Election Commission’s published lists. Electoral rolls in India carry no religion column, as the law does not permit one. The model returns a probability for each name and only group totals are published. No individual entry is labelled.
Goshamahal’s overall estimate of 24 per cent sits within a range of roughly 18 to 30. Siasat.com’s analysis carries a margin of error.
(This is Part 7 of a multi-part series on the analysis of the Telangana and Hyderabad SIR. Click to read Part 5 and Part 6. Stay tuned as we publish more)
SOURCE : SIASAT
