The AFL teams that are holding their nerve the best in clutch moments

Source : ABC NEWS

The length and breadth of Australia time marches to different beats and cadences. While an hour is always an hour and a minute is always the same, at which time each precise hour takes place differs dramatically.

The vast spans of Australia mean that there are nine official time zones covering its population, across summer and winter from east to west. Few countries have more — France, Russia and the USA. While the saying is that it’s always five o’clock somewhere, that’s actually often the case in this wide brown land.

But for many, nine isn’t enough. In recent years, parts of Australia are pushing to adopt a 10th time zone — Wharfie Time.

From what started out as a call to action from one of Fremantle’s finest servants Matthew Pavlich during a match, Wharfie Time has rapidly evolved far beyond those humble origins, as bells toll around Perth Stadium and lights flash at a given point in Dockers games in a call to arms of supporters.

“The siren starts going and the crowd starts yelling. Even their players start getting up and about, and you’re thinking, ‘What’s going on here?'” Hawthorn forward Dylan Moore told SEN earlier this year.

“It was actually quite distracting, and with elite sport as soon as you get a little bit distracted or a bit cautious you stop playing your way.”

Not even Dockers coach Justin Longmuir knows exactly when the bell tolls for Wharfie Time — although it always seems to happen when the margin is within two goals late in the fourth quarter.

“They seem to time it really well. When the momentum has started but hasn’t gone to its fullest,” Longmuir informed Channel 7.

“I know our players get a lot of energy off it and I would imagine it would spook the opposition to some degree.”

While Wharfie Time is unique to Fremantle football games, crunch time is common to the rest of the country. Think of it as the “sparkling wine” to Fremantle’s close game Champagne. 

Last week the AFL saw record amounts of it flowing across the league, with all bar two games being decided by eight points or less. Two more close games have been added to the close game tally. Across the entire season about one-third of games have been decided by less than 12 points — the most since 1961.

There have been 50 games this year where the margin has dipped to 12 points or fewer in time on (after 20 minutes of elapsed time) in the last term. The Bulldogs have won six of their eight games that have entered the crunichest of times, while Essendon has failed to win a single encounter.

But not all games that enter crunch time are the same, and the job to win them can vary vastly depending on the margin.

The ‘knack’ of winning close games

Over a long period of time, teams generally win as many close games as they lose. But this headline figure hides a lot of nuance behind it. While the traditional wisdom is that close games are coin flips, there’s actually one pretty big (and obvious) pointer to who tends to win close games.

Forty-one of the 57 teams leading by 12 points or less heading into the last quarter this year have gone on to win the game. That number rises to 39 of the 50 teams holding a two-goal or less lead heading into time-on in the last.

Despite comebacks only happening roughly a quarter of the time in late game scenarios, this is an improvement on last year where just 15 per cent of teams were able to overcome a late game deficit. In some games the leading team at the time on mark gets caught, only to surge again by the death.

As a rule of thumb, the later a game gets, the harder it is to catch the leader.

While the Western Bulldogs have won the most close games of any team this year, they have all come when the Dogs have had the upper hand to begin with. Likewise, the Dons’ four losses in tight ones have come when they were the underdogs. No team has arguably thrown away good positions more than the Pies this year, while Sydney and Fremantle have made the most of their comeback chances.

The advantage that the leader holds late has created two divergent styles of play late in games. While the precise names may vary from club to club, they are generally known as “win the game” and “save the game”.

Each mode of play has a dedicated profile, with different methods of play to increase the chances of victory. Some teams might be more predisposed to chasing leads, and some may have better gamestyles to protect leads. While each team deploys each method with different wrinkles, there are clear trends that are apparent league wide.

Saving the game

The general profile of the “save the game” (or “kill the game”) mode is more readily apparent to footy fans. Football games are general won by dominating possession and field position. Teams ahead late by not much put an even more intense focus than normal on those basics, as well as trying to reduce the time available for a late game comeback.

The latter part of the equation — forcing time off the clock — is critical to managing a lead. Teams often look to do this by finding open teammates for uncontested marks or forcing stoppages around the ground.

“We train the players for those moments.” Sydney coach Dean Cox said after their close win over Port Adelaide. “The line coaches spend a lot of time with their players about what’s needed at certain times.”

Late in close games the rate of stoppages skyrockets, with much of that down to the will of the team currently ahead on the scoreboard. The long kick down the line becomes a staple, with the design to create either a ball up from a contested pack or a spoil sending the ball over the boundary line. Teams with the lead late see the ball head over the boundary for a throw-in roughly twice as often as the chasing side late in games.

There’s also an uptick of ball-ups late in games, and in particular repeat ball-ups. There’s about twice as many of those game clogging re-restarts in crunch time. Every restart becomes a chance for defences to reset and on-ballers to nullify all movement. Some teams have even experimented with not grabbing the ball when close, and instead opting to tackle an opposition player who tries to break it free. While cynical to many outsiders, it’s often very effective.

In Adelaide’s nailbiting win over Geelong last week there were 10 stoppages in time on, including five in the last two minutes of play. While the slippery conditions helped induce a congested game, the time that bled off at the end at restarts helped the Crows just get over the line.

The six best teams for clearance differential this year have won 15 of 17 games when leading in crunch time. This is well above the year-long average, and indicates that being built to win (or control) disputed ball gives teams when trying to save games late.

Not only do defences reset when there’s a stoppage, they multiply. A routine spare defender can become multiple players behind the ball to defend a lead, who are then often “matched” by opponents following them. The end result is an uptick in spoils, a crowd around the ball, and another source of more stoppages.

There’s also the subtle art of defending with the ball in hand. Teams with the lead are adept at finding open teammates, with their rate of kick to open marks (either uncontested or on the lead) increasing late. This often creates panic in the opposition side, forcing otherwise solid defensive structures to be abandoned.

When deployed effectively, possession and stoppage strategies can break the will of opposition sides and often create scoring chances of their own through the chaos that ensues. Given the amount of league-wide effort that goes towards late game scenarios, it’s no surprise that there is such a large edge to teams in front late.

But if there’s an inherent weakness to many save-the-game elements, it’s that the methods involve teams playing more conservatively. Opposition sides who are willing to swing for the fences often have a shot at glory if they can execute everything perfectly.

Winning the game

Coaches often speak of the dichotomy in football between chaos and control. Control is comfortable. Control brings the game onto your own terms, and allows your side to take stock of their surroundings. Control — in quite a lot of games — is winning football.

But, when deployed at the right time, chaos can overcome almost anything. When down late in games, systematic chaos can often be the way to get back into the lead.

While the team in front usually seeks the boundary or an open mark, their opponents try to move through the corridor with line-breaking run-and-carry. When chasing a lead, the ratio of handballs to kicks increases sharply, along with an increase in kick distance.

Sydney’s win over St Kilda in round 13 typified parts of this approach. In the last two minutes, the Swans actively looked for the corridor after being shut out for much of the game. Sydney even sacrificed territory to open up the field in order to get good looks inside 50. While the eventual game-winning goal came from a forward 50 clearance, the foundations were set by freewheeling play up the ground.

Using speed and keeping the ball in motion away from packs is often the modus operandi of teams looking to win the game. Kick-ins from behinds down the middle increase, despite the high risk that it will come back the other way with interest. Teams who are down often win the ball at stoppages more often than their opponents, but there’s a higher likelihood that they will be tackled as well. That can result in another stoppage or even a free kick going the other way.

Sydney, Melbourne and Fremantle have all clocked up two wins from behind late, and all three are among the most aggressive teams with respect to ball movement this year. Being predisposed to taking risk may provide an easier pathway to switching to a win-the-game strategy late.

Standing up in the clutch

It’s not only teams that change when the going gets tough. Some players seem to elevate their game to another level, while others seem to struggle with the pressure of the moment at hand.

Unfortunately, it’s often hard to separate individual performances with such small sample sizes. The list of the leading players late in games is largely led by those who have the most opportunities to perform in the clutch. To work out which players are better when games are close, we have to expand out clutch time to cover the whole fourth quarter with a margin of two goals or less.

Doing so illuminates several interesting trends.

Given extra numbers in defence, there’s a distinct lack of hulking, pack-marking key forwards scoring at the death. The names that emerge instead consist of a number of power runners and expert leading forwards of all sizes, players whose pace and craft can find slight chances. Jamie Elliott — with nine goals — is the most prolific of the bunch, but has also played in more close games than most other players.

Up the ground, Caleb Serong dominates ground balls in close games, sitting well ahead of fellow reigning All Australian Ed Richards. Both have played more close footy than almost anyone else in the last 18 months.

Over the last two years, Richards stands out as perhaps the best overall performer in clutch time situations, putting points on the scoreboard, winning his own ball, driving the pill forward and being involved in Bulldog scores.

On a per-game basis Tom Atkins stands out as the most prolific winner of ground-level disputed balls when it matters most. Atkins leans more towards loose ball gets, with fellow Cat Bailey Smith obtaining more of the hard ball.

While many non-Leo Barry moments are often forgotten in the stead of forward half heroics, defenders are frequently heroes in pivotal moments. The focus here shifts dramatically depending on whether a team needs to regain the ball and attack to win the game, or just kill the contest outright. In either case, a key trend is that the looser and less directly accountable defenders tend to impact the ball most visibly.

Defenders such as Anthony Caminiti (who leads in spoils) and Josh Worrell (intercepts leader) have been crucial to their clubs, but the most impactful all round defender in clutch time has been a canny veteran finding new energy at a second club.

Tom Barrass has been clearly the most prolific all round defender when the game has been on the line. It is no coincidence that the Hawks standing as a contender has risen with Barrass’s arrival.

All of these individual performers make the most of the game within a game that is clutch time. While it’s still football, the added fatigue and stakes change a fair chunk of how the game is played.