Source : Perth Now news
A handwritten set of notes spied by a photographer revealed the messages Ben Carroll wanted to convey in his first media conference as Victorian premier.
They stated he was “not Daniel Andrews”, argued it was time for a “new direction” and signalled that the coming months were “high stakes”.
Another strong message came from the freshly minted premier too: unless Labor could turn the tide, Victoria was on track for the first minority government in Australia that would include One Nation.
“This election, only Labor can stop the risk of a Liberal-One Nation government,” Mr Carroll told the packed room of journalists on Tuesday, hours after predecessor Jacinta Allan’s resignation from the top job.
This could be true, according to election analysts and Labor’s own heavyweights including the prime minister, who warn the populist party could win enough seats at the November election to hold the balance of power.
“Victorians will have a choice between Ben Carroll and a Labor government, and chaos and a One Nation-Liberal coalition,” Anthony Albanese said in an ABC News Breakfast interview on Thursday.
The move to new leadership and attacks on One Nation show Labor is nervous about its chances of a fourth term, as the Pauline Hanson-led party braced for the fight during the week by announcing its first endorsed candidate, MP Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell.
Ms Tyrrell, who in 2022 became the first One Nation candidate elected to Victorian parliament, scoffed at Labor casting her party as a force of chaos immediately after Ms Allan was disposed as premier.
“If the government is currently afraid of a One Nation influence in government, either federally or in Victoria, I think they’ve got good reason,” she tells AAP.
“Victorians are fed up with what Labor government has done to them and if they’re looking to One Nation as an alternative, I don’t blame them.”
Fresh polling suggests Labor remains on the nose in Victoria, with the party trailing Jess Wilson’s Liberal-National coalition on a two-party-preferred basis 52 per cent to 48 per cent.
In the primary vote, the coalition was leading on 31 per cent, followed by Labor (28 per cent) and One Nation (19 per cent), according to the latest Newspoll.
In a rare public statement on Wednesday, former premier Daniel Andrews – a Labor icon who led the party to two landslide victories – issued a pointed warning.
“Elections like this are won by a handful of votes in a handful of seats. I believe Premier Carroll and his team can win in November,” he said.
“Working people across Victoria cannot afford the cuts that will come with a Wilson-Hanson government.”
Ms Tyrell, an upper house MP, took particular umbrage with Mr Andrews highlighting the threat of a “Wilson-Hanson government”.
“Pauline Hanson is in federal parliament,” she says.
“If they’re going to use those kinds of tactics to scare Victorians, then it is clear that they are shaking in their boots.”
Despite Labor’s woes, climbing to power won’t be easy for the coalition on November 28, as it needs a net gain of 16 seats to form a majority and end 12 consecutive years of Labor rule.
Such a turnaround has not been pulled off since 1992 when Jeff Kennett led the coalition to a landslide victory by picking up an extra 19 seats.
Given shifting dynamics in marginal seats and internal politics, fears from the Labor faithful about One Nation being involved in a minority government in Victoria are not without cause, according to an election analyst.
“The coalition could claw it (primary vote) back a little bit to the point where they either win a majority or maybe One Nation is in the balance of power,” says Ben Raue, founder and author of The Tally Room.
“All those options are still on the table.”
Mr Raue suggests One Nation’s surge in popularity during 2026 has made it more likely the coalition will need the assistance of the populist party to form government.
“The coalition, because of the role of One Nation, are in a weaker position than might have otherwise been if it was more of a two-party contest,” he says.
George Hasanakos, head of research at pollster DemosAU, says recent Victorian polling points to a highly fragmented electorate, with Labor, the coalition and One Nation all sitting on primary votes in the 20s or early 30s depending on the poll.
“This is similar to federal polling but with the coalition in a much stronger position than is currently the case nationally,” Mr Hasanakos tells AAP.
“There’s still a few months until the election so no scenario should be ruled out, and that includes both a coalition or Labor majority, or a hung parliament.”
While DemosAU polling shows a coalition majority is the most likely outcome, Labor’s leadership change could improve its position, increasing the likelihood of a hung parliament.
While it remains unclear how many candidates One Nation will field in November, Ms Tyrrell says additional announcements are “imminent”.
“I am suspecting, within the next week, we will see the roll out start to happen,” she adds.
