Source : INDIA TODAY NEWS
It’s young and growing, and restless too. And once in a while, it doesn’t stop from showing its fury. The Himalayas are the world’s most seismically active mountain range, and a flood resulting from an earthquake-triggered avalanche has killed over 100 people on the Nepal-Tibet border, with hundreds more unaccounted for. The devastation from the unstoppable wall of flowing water also made experts caution about a monster dam that China is building just next to the border with India.
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The 60,000-megawatt (MW) Medog Dam that China is building on the Yarlung Tsangpo, which becomes the Brahmaputra in India, is near Arunachal Pradesh. The dam, which Beijing is looking to operationalise by 2033, is located in China-occupied Tibet Autonomous Region’s (TAR’s) Medog or Medong. This is a zone that is prone to earthquakes, and such a massive dam has therefore been referred to as a “water bomb” by experts.
Houses, roads and power projects were swept away in Nepal, while officials in Tibet said they feared “major casualties” from the flood triggered by the avalanche in the TAR on Wednesday. The deluge of muddy water swept down from an estimated nearly 2,000 metres (6,560 feet) above sea level.
At least 341 foreign travellers, including more than 100 Indians, are missing. Most of them are Kailash Mansarovar pilgrims.
Nepal’s Foreign Minister Shisir Khanal told Parliament on Wednesday that initial reports suggested that an earthquake could have triggered an avalanche and caused the floods in the Bhote Koshi and Trishuli river systems.
Even a study by geologists affiliated with China’s state-run geological survey had in July found that the under-construction Medog Hydropower Station on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet sits atop an active fault line.
“The Himalayas are the world’s most seismically active major mountain range, with a record of triggering devastating earthquakes. How even a moderate seismic event can trigger massive cascading effects was illustrated today when a magnitude 4.4 quake along the Tibet-Nepal border unleashed a disaster, with flash floods washing away Nepali villages,” wrote strategic expert Brahma Chellaney on X.
Reports also suggested that an ice avalanche could have triggered the deadly cascade. “A chunk of ice with a width of about 2,000 feet snapped cleanly off the glacier,” The New York Times reported, quoting geologist Daniel Shugar.
Though it was too early to confirm the trigger, the devastation in Nepal made experts issue a stern warning over the mega-Medog Dam.
China has been building settlements and infrastructure projects in eco-sensitive border areas.
“This [the Nepal disaster] will renew global attention on China’s folly in persisting with the construction of the world’s largest dam in the middle of the Himalayan seismic zone,” said Chellaney.
“The project, located next to the Indo-Tibetan border, is a water bomb in the making, which could drown India’s northeast and wreak havoc farther downstream in Bangladesh,” he added.
Former Indian ambassador and foreign affairs commentator Rajiv Dogra too warned the risk of a “much bigger devastation” to India’s northeast because of the Chinese dam.
“A much bigger devastation could strike India’s North-East if China goes to complete its 60,000 MW monster dam on Brahmaputra in seismologically sensitive zone,” wrote Dogra on X.
CONCERNS RAISED BY CHINESE EXPERTS OVER MEDOG DAM’S STRUCTURAL SAFETY
China began the construction of what is set to become the world’s largest hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet, triggering concerns in India over water security, flooding, ecology and the future of communities living downstream.
The project, also known as the Motuo Hydropower Station, is estimated to cost around $167 billion. Once completed, the Medog Dam will surpass China’s Three Gorges Dam, which is the world’s largest, to become the largest hydroelectric project in size and could generate roughly three times as much electricity, according to the Sydney-based think tank, Lowy Institute.
Fresh concerns over the structural safety of the Medog Dam were raised in July after the study by geologists affiliated with China’s state-run geological survey.
According to a report by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), citing a paper published in Mandarin in the journal Sedimentary Geology and Tethyan Geology under the supervision of the state-owned China Geological Survey, researchers identified the active Paizhen Fault directly beneath the Medog Dam site on the Yarlung Tsangpo.
WHY IS INDIA CONCERNED OVER CHINESE DAM ON YARLUNG TSANGPO?
The Yarlung Tsangpo flows from Tibet into Arunachal Pradesh, where it is known as the Siang, before becoming the Brahmaputra as it moves through Assam and eventually enters Bangladesh.
The Medog Dam that China is building is located in one of the most dramatic sections of the Yarlung Tsangpo, where the river makes a huge U-turn around Mount Namcha Barwa of Tibet. The river descends sharply through a deep canyon, creating enormous potential for hydropower generation. China plans to develop five cascading hydropower stations in the region.
The sheer scale and location of the project have raised concerns in India because China controls the upper reaches of a river that is crucial to communities, agriculture and ecosystems downstream.
A concern for India is China’s ability to influence the flow of the Brahmaputra once the dam is fully constructed. Though the Brahmaputra gets most of the water from monsoon-fed tributaries in India, it is still a lower-riparian country. Any major alteration in the volume or timing of water released from Tibet could potentially affect Arunachal Pradesh and Assam.
During periods of heavy rainfall, a sudden release of water from reservoirs could increase the risk of flooding downstream. On the other hand, a prolonged reduction in releases during dry periods could affect water availability for agriculture, fisheries and local communities.
When India put the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in abeyance against Pakistan’s state-sponsored terror that killed 26 civilians in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam, Islamabad had hinted that China, being the upper riparian country, might be capable of controlling the flow of the Tsangpo-Brahmaputra river system.
Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu had in 2025 warned that the Siang and Brahmaputra could potentially see a major reduction in water flow. He has also described the project as an existential concern for tribal communities living along the Siang, particularly because of the possibility of sudden releases from a massive upstream reservoir.
INDIA’S MEGA PROJECT TO MANAGE CHINESE DAM’S THREAT
One of India’s strategic concerns is that a mega dam could give Beijing greater leverage over a transboundary river.
India had raised concerns with China over large hydropower projects on the upper reaches of rivers shared by the two countries. The fear is not necessarily that China would deliberately cut off India’s water supply, but that control over the tap of such a strategically important river could provide Beijing with significant influence over downstream water flows.
India has also been preparing for the possibility of increased water-flow fluctuations.
New Delhi is advancing a large 11,000 MW Siang Upper Multipurpose Project on the Siang river in Arunachal Pradesh to counter upstream Chinese dam construction so that the water flow can be controlled.
DIDN’T CHINA ISSUE AN EARLY WARNING TO NEPAL?
India’s challenge is that it has limited control over developments taking place on the Tibetan side of the river. This makes information-sharing and real-time hydrological data particularly important. The similar situation was witnessed in Nepal on Wednesday.
Kathmandu-based journalist Parshuram Kaphle said Beijing didn’t alert Nepal about the massive wall of water moving downstream.
“Nepal has been addressing the legitimate security concerns of our neighbors. However, it must be said with sadness that our northern neighbor has significantly undermined us. By failing to provide early warning of such a massive disaster, we suffered immense loss of human life,” wrote Kaphle on X.
US-based Tibetan lawyer Tenzin Tsering said that Kathmandu, in all probability, wouldn’t hold Beijing accountable for the disaster.
“But Nepal will likely never hold China accountable for this devastating flood. China is pursuing a similar strategy with India by constructing a massive dam in the southern Tibet region,” Tsering wrote on X, commenting about the Medog Dam project.
The absence of a comprehensive water-sharing treaty between India and China, under which real-time hydrological information can be shared, adds another layer to the Medog Dam problem. The biggest concern, however, remains the massive size of the dam and it being situated in a quake-prone region.
Experts are pointing to the Medog Dam as a “water bomb”, and the devastation in Nepal reveals the risk that China would be posing to India’s northeast with the project.
– Ends
SOURCE :- TIMES OF INDIA
