Source : INDIA TODAY NEWS
Two bypoll victories have given Tamil Nadu Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) a bigger electoral cushion, but not enough numbers to govern the state on its own. Even if the TVK were to win the five Assembly seats awaiting by-elections, the arithmetic of survival for the minority government would continue to hinge on the Congress, which has five MLAs. Coalition management will, therefore, remain an important part of CM Vijay’s job.
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In Tamil Nadu politics, two seats can mean more than two legislators. For Vijay, the victories in Dharapuram and Madurantakam are a chance to strengthen a government that began its tenure with a fractured mandate even after emerging as the single-biggest party.
Both seats have returned to the TVK fold after their former AIADMK legislators resigned, joined Vijay’s party and contested the bypolls under its symbol. The wins take the ruling party’s Assembly tally from 107 to 109.
Maragatham Kumaravel and P Sathyabama, who had won the Madurantakam and Dharapuram seats, respectively, as AIADMK candidates in the 2026 Assembly elections, resigned as MLAs and joined the ruling TVK. Now both the legislators have once again emerged victorious under the TVK’s whistle symbol.
The numbers of the Tamil Nadu Assembly, however, tell a more complicated story.
In the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly, 118 seats are needed for a simple majority. Even after the bypoll victories, TVK remains nine seats short of that mark. Five other constituencies — Tiruchirappalli East, Karur, Viralimalai, Perundurai and Ambasamudram — remain vacant, with by-elections held for legal proceedings before the Madras High Court.
Considering the Vijay phenomenon in the state, even if TVK wins all five, its tally would rise only to 114, still four short of a majority. That leaves Vijay dependent on the parties supporting his government, particularly the Congress, which has five MLAs and is a partner in the ruling coalition.
There is, however, an important qualification for arithmetic. If TVK wins all five remaining seats and its other supporting parties — the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), Communist Party of India (CPI) and CPI(M) — continue to back the government, their combined strength could take the government beyond the majority mark even without Congress. The Congress is therefore not mathematically indispensable under every possible scenario, but its continued support remains politically significant for the actor-turned-CM’s government.
The bypoll results have strengthened Vijay’s hand. But they have not removed the need to keep his allies on board.
TWO SEATS, A BIGGER CUSHION FOR THE VIJAY GOVERNMENT
The Dharapuram and Madurantakam contests were significant because they tested whether the two former AIADMK legislators could retain their constituencies after switching to TVK.
P Sathyabama won Dharapuram, while K Maragatham Kumaravel secured Madurantakam. Both had represented the constituencies as AIADMK legislators before resigning and joining Vijay’s party. Their victories have allowed the TVK to convert defections into additional seats rather than merely adding former legislators to its political ranks.
The results also give Vijay’s government an early electoral boost. The bypolls were held just months after TVK formed the government, making them an important test of whether its electoral appeal could translate into support in subsequent contests.
For TVK, the victory strengthened its position in the Assembly and reinforced the political significance of the legislators who crossed over.
WHY CONGRESS REMAINS CENTRAL TO VIJAY’S GOVERNMENT
Congress’s importance dates back to the negotiations that followed the April Assembly election. TVK emerged as the single biggest party with 108 seats, but Vijay’s decision to retain Perambur and resign from Tiruchirappalli East reduced the party’s effective strength to 107.
Congress, with five MLAs, extended support to Vijay, breaking from its long-standing alliance with the DMK. The VCK and IUML also backed the government, while the CPI and CPI(M) offered support. These parties enabled Vijay to take office despite TVK falling short of the majority mark.
The political significance of Congress goes beyond its numbers. It is a national party with an organisational network and a role in the wider opposition coalition. Its decision to support Vijay after campaigning alongside the DMK was a major post-election shift in Tamil Nadu’s political alignments.
“Vijay needs Congress more than Congress needs Vijay in Tamil Nadu,” social and political expert Ravindran Duraisamy told India Today Digital while assessing the first 150 days of the TVK government.
Duraisamy argued that Congress and the Left parties helped keep the BJP-led NDA out of power in Tamil Nadu by backing Vijay rather than allowing the AIADMK-led formation to provide the BJP with greater political space in the state.
The Congress’s decision to support the TVK after the election also exposed the limits of long-standing political alliances. Having campaigned with the DMK, the national party chose to back Vijay following the fractured mandate, prompting accusations of betrayal from its former ally.
For Vijay, this arrangement has provided a route to power without having to secure a majority independently. For Congress, it offers a place in the new governing formation, including Cabinet representation. The relationship is therefore based not only on the immediate arithmetic of the Assembly but also on the political choices both parties made after the election.
VIJAY’S MINORITY GOVERNMENT THAT IS BUILT ON NEGOTIATION
The two victories have strengthened TVK’s position, but the government’s future will depend on more than the number of seats it wins. Vijay must maintain the support of parties whose interests and political calculations are not identical to those of his own.
The Congress, at the same time, must weigh the benefits of its place in government against the risks of remaining tied to a relatively new political formation. The VCK, IUML and Left parties also retain leverage because their support contributes to the government’s ability to command a majority.
For now, the bypolls results give Vijay more room to manoeuvre. They also demonstrate that the TVK can win contests beyond the initial Assembly election. But the chief minister’s party remains short of a majority, and five constituencies are still awaiting elections.
– Ends
SOURCE :- TIMES OF INDIA
