Source : INDIA TODAY NEWS
As the United States and Iran take their first steps toward a possible long-term agreement, one question is increasingly dominating concern across the Gulf: How much could Iran ultimately gain from the deal?
That question is expected to follow US Secretary of State Marco Rubio throughout a three-day trip to the Middle East this week, where he will meet leaders in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain and try to reassure some of Washington’s closest partners that the Donald Trump administration’s agreement with Tehran will not come at their expense.
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The concern is not about diplomacy itself. Most Gulf countries welcomed efforts to stop the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. Instead, the unease focusses on what Iran could receive if negotiations succeed and whether the deal does enough to address decades-old worries over Iran’s military ambitions.
WHY GULF ALLIES ARE WORRIED
Among the issues drawing the most attention is the possibility of a reconstruction package worth as much as $300 billion for Iran.
The memorandum of understanding says Washington “undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive mutually agreed plan with at least $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development” of Iran. The “mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalised as part of the final Deal within 60 days.”
Officials across the Gulf fear such a fund could help Tehran rebuild after months of conflict while also strengthening its military capabilities and influence. Many are also concerned that the memorandum of understanding signed last week does not directly address Iran’s ballistic missile programme.
Those concerns carry particular weight in countries that host American military bases. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar all play big roles in Washington’s security architecture in the Middle East. During the war with Iran, all of them also faced Iranian missile and drone attacks, including strikes on civilian infrastructure.
Rubio’s visit comes at a sensitive moment. While regional leaders support efforts to avoid another war, many want clarity on what exactly Washington is offering Tehran and what Iran will be required to do in return.
Despite talk of rebuilding Iran, Gulf nations have yet to say whether they are willing to help fund the effort. The issue remains sensitive, particularly after the war, with Tehran also pressing Washington for reparations. Just before the Switzerland talks, Trump had vowed that Tehran would receive “not ten cents” from the US.
THE FROZEN ASSETS DEBATE
The question of money has emerged as one of the most complicated parts of the negotiations.
Speaking after talks in Switzerland, US Vice President JD Vance revealed details of a proposal that could determine how billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets are handled if sanctions relief moves forward.
“We wanted to make sure that we set up a process where if we ever unfreeze Iranian assets, we can ensure that money, that Iranian money, goes to help the people of Iran and not to fund terrorism,” Vance said.
Under the proposal, Washington and Qatar would have oversight over how certain unfrozen funds are spent.
“Jared Kushner actually came up with a very interesting solution with the Qataris, where basically — again if there is any frozen Iranian assets that are unfrozen — then we have approval over that process, the Qataris have approval over that process, and then the money would actually go to buy American corn and American wheat for the benefit of the Iranian people,” he added.
The arrangement would allow Iran to access some of its funds while directing spending toward humanitarian and agricultural purchases.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS REMAIN IN PLAY
Even with that proposal on the table, the issue remains far from settled.
Iran has signalled that they want control over how their assets are used. According to Iran’s central bank governor, decisions regarding frozen funds should ultimately be guided by Iranian authorities.
The sums involved are substantial.
Negotiators initially focused on between $6 billion and $25 billion frozen in overseas accounts. However, estimates say Iran may have between $100 billion and $120 billion in assets locked up around the world because of sanctions.
HORMUZ AND REGIONAL SECURITY ON AGENDA
Rubio’s discussions will not focus solely on money.
A major part of his trip will centre on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a significant portion of the world’s oil and gas supplies passes.
The route became a flashpoint during the conflict and shipping traffic has still not returned to normal levels.
According to analytics firm Kpler, 71 vessels passed through the strait over the weekend. Before the conflict, daily traffic often ranged between 100 and 131 vessels.
The memorandum currently prevents Iran from imposing transit fees during the 60-day negotiation period. However, Iranian officials have indicated such charges could be considered once that window closes.
The US State Department said Rubio will discuss “a range of regional priorities including the memorandum of understanding with Iran, efforts to secure full and free safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and the importance of peace and stability in the region.”
In Bahrain, Rubio will also meet leaders from the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE.
– Ends
With inputs from inputs
SOURCE :- TIMES OF INDIA
