Source :- THE AGE NEWS
The Victorian clubs’ pursuit of Zak Butters may resemble The Bachelor or Farmer Wants a Wife, in terms of how the clubs are throwing themselves at the Power gun.
In reality – as opposed to reality TV – the bidding for Butters is more like a tendering process, in which companies are trying to secure a coveted client.
The bidding for Butters is redolent of 19 years ago, when Chris Judd’s services were out to tender, and, as with Butters, the field quickly narrowed to four Victorian suitors.
One difference is that Judd’s exit from West Coast, while speculated upon throughout 2007, had not been viewed as so certain until mid-to-late September. The tenders from Collingwood, Essendon, Melbourne and the successful bidder, Carlton, did not land until shortly before the trading period.
Free agent Butters has already met with all four of his suitors, each of whom have something distinctive on offer. We assume (as Collingwood chief executive Craig Kelly did, to Port Adelaide’s irritation) that he’s leaving Port.
The Bulldogs, purportedly the early clubhouse leader, offer favourable geography and tribal loyalty – Butters grew up following the Dogs – for the midfield superstar. He has fostered a bond, too, with their champion and skipper Marcus Bontempelli.
Some in the industry believe Butters is already in the Doggy bag, subject to a deal being struck. Others involved in the bidding are adamant that he’s undecided.
Geelong offer relative proximity to Darley, on the western metropolitan fringe, where Butters’ family resides, and they present a near guarantee that, over the next eight years, they will contend multiple times for the premiership.
Reverting to Farmer Wants a Wife, the Cats are the practical country girl you settle down with. They will make it work. You mightn’t get paid quite as much as at two or three others (despite ongoing cynicism about the club’s player payments), but you will be running onto the MCG in September and surfing at Jan Juc if that’s your go.
Collingwood offer that prospect of finals-like games every second or third week. They fill the ’G in April, May and June. You’ll be on Broadway, and as with the Dogs, you’ll share billing with one of the game’s absolute best (Nick Daicos and maybe Lachie Neale). The downside of the Pies is their older demography and need for list regeneration.
That leaves Richmond, the runt of the litter in terms of current ladder position and the grim fact that they are mired in a total rebuild.
But if you assessed each suitor on the prospects for making a deal workable for all parties – rather than on short-term flag prospects – the Tigers can offer easily the best, most straightforward trade for Butters.
Port have repeatedly said they will match any free-agent bid for Butters rather than accept the compensation pick (pick No.5 now, likely No.7 after draft bids). I don’t think they’re bluffing.
Richmond hold pick No.1 in the national draft, as of Sunday, when they meet the Eagles in a winnable game. To play out the hypothetical trades, let’s say that they keep that pick at season’s end.
For Port Adelaide, pick No.1 is immensely valuable because their academy recruit Dougie Cochrane is a near-unanimous first pick in the draft. Port would need picks four and eight to match a bid at No.1 for Cochrane under the AFL’s tougher new bidding rules for father son and academy recruits.
Holding pick No.1, Richmond can put these two deals on the table, which would satisfy Port and would be damned hard for the other suitors to beat.
Butters will not walk for nothing to Richmond via the pre-season draft, nor threaten that nuclear option, I’m told. He will want Port properly compensated.
Naturally, these are trades that Richmond and Port have separately war gamed.
Option A:
1. The Tigers trade pick No.1 for Butters. No other picks involved.
2. Port simply take Cochrane at pick No.1. Port keep their first pick, No.4 on ladder position entering Saturday night (would be No.5 after a bid for Cody Walker, Carlton’s father-son).
3. The bid for Walker, expected at pick No.2 by Essendon, will generate end-of-first-round compensation for all bottom-five teams, in order, bar Richmond. This includes Port. It’s a strange new rule that helps lower sides.
The upshot: Port get Cochrane, keep their high first-rounder (pick No.5 or six), and gain a pick in the low 20s. Richmond get Butters for pick No.1 – a clean and easy trade.
Option B:
1. The Tigers trade pick No.1 for Butters.
2. Port place a bid for Carlton’s Walker at No.1, creating end-of-first-round selections for all bottom-five teams bar Richmond.
3. Port then pick the next best kid available at pick No.2. The bid for Cochrane comes next at No.3. Port match with pick No.5 or six and their (AFL-donated) end-of-first-round compo pick in the low 20s. Or they combine that freebie pick with their second-rounder and trade down to a selection in the teens to match.
The upshot: Richmond get Butters for just pick No.1. Port gain Cochrane, and the kid they rate No.2 or three in draft (behind Cochrane and maybe Walker).
The downside of the B deal is that Port could be forced into points deficit and slide slightly in the 2027 draft order.
For the Tigers, the attraction of using pick No.1 is that they cannot get either Cochrane or Walker this year, in an otherwise even draft. They could use adjusted versions of these trades with pick No.2 if they confound late-season tradition and win a game, “overtaking” Essendon.
The problem with these pick-one trades for Butters is that the Tigers lose that end-of-first-round freebie. It’s conceivable, though, that Port could find a lesser pick to compensate.
The Judd deal was expensive for Carlton, in that they parted with Josh Kennedy and picks No.3 and 20. In hindsight, they’d have fared better by trading pick No.1, and giving up Matthew Kreuzer (Trent Cotchin was in West Coast’s sights).
The problem with trading Butters to Richmond is that it’s a long way to the top from where the Tigers are situated. Butters would have to accept that three years of his prime, at best, would be spent with a team that won’t compete for flags.
It would take a leap of faith of some magnitude, not unlike the one that Judd made in 2007.
Free agency has made it easier for the guns to get to where they wish than in Judd’s day. Back then, the ability to land at one’s destination was a major consideration for players and their agents. Carlton were the easier – and more lucrative – option for Judd.
Whoever Butters chooses will find a way to get the deal done, and he’ll know the score. It won’t be Married At First Sight.
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Jake Niall is a Walkley award-winning sports journalist and chief AFL writer for The Age.Connect via X or email.
