SOURCE :- SIASAT NEWS
Tel Aviv: Israel faces a growing risk of civil conflict and state collapse as political, economic and social tensions deepen ahead of the country’s October 27 elections, according to a classified CIA assessment reported by Drop Site News.
The August assessment, titled “Fracture From Within”, was prepared by experts from the CIA’s Red Cell, a unit tasked with producing alternative analysis and challenging prevailing assumptions within the intelligence community. Two US sources familiar with the assessment described its contents to Drop Site News. The CIA did not respond to a request for comment.
The assessment reportedly identified several pressures converging inside Israel, including rising military spending, prolonged mobilisation of reservists, economic difficulties, disputes over military-service exemptions and political tensions surrounding Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
One of the most contentious domestic issues is the exemption from military service enjoyed by many ultra-Orthodox Jewish men. The arrangement has drawn growing criticism as reservists face repeated deployments and prolonged separation from their families and jobs.
Ultra-Orthodox leaders have defended the exemptions on religious grounds, arguing that military service conflicts with Torah study. The issue has nevertheless become a source of resentment among sections of Israeli society.
The economic strain has also affected households. Food prices, including fresh fruit and vegetables, have risen by 9.5 per cent over the past two years, according to figures cited in the report.
Netanyahu is also facing political pressure over his handling of the war and the security failures surrounding the October 7 attacks. Recent polling has shown both the Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu blocs struggling to secure the 61 seats required to form a government.
Another concern highlighted by the assessment is the return of heavily armed military veterans from prolonged combat. Some veterans are reportedly dealing with psychological trauma, raising concerns about how political tensions could interact with an increasingly armed population.
The report also pointed to Israel’s deteriorating international position. A separate CIA assessment reported by Capital & Empire in July said Israeli officials were concerned about weakening political support in the United States and the long-term sustainability of American military assistance.
A Pew Research Center survey published in April found that 60 per cent of Americans held an unfavourable view of Israel, compared with 53 per cent a year earlier.
The August assessment reportedly examined potential consequences if the situation deteriorates further, including reduced investment by foreign technology and artificial intelligence companies, a reassessment of relations with Israel by regional governments, and attempts by Hamas or Hezbollah to exploit domestic instability.
According to the sources cited by Drop Site News, the assessment specifically referred to the possibility of “civil conflict”.
The warning comes after nearly three years of war and escalating regional tensions since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. Israel has since fought a prolonged war in Gaza and faced confrontation with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran, placing additional pressure on its military and economy.
SOURCE : SIASAT
