Source : the age
Immigration rather than living costs is the top concern for Australians who have flocked to One Nation, according to research that suggests Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Angus Taylor must convince voters they’ve cut migration if they are to claw back support.
A survey of 1000 supporters of One Nation, run by pollster John Utting and Labor strategist Bruce Hawker, shows a key difference between supporters of One Nation and those of other parties is that 91 per cent believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. Among all voters, it is 62 per cent.
The poll also maps out the split between Pauline Hanson’s loyal voters – true believers who back her no matter what – and newer supporters who revealed what it would take for them to switch their vote back to the Coalition – and far less likely, Labor.
Of the One Nation backers who say the country is on the wrong track, 39 per cent name immigration as a reason. Australia’s border controls and cultural diversity has turned into a flashpoint as Labor scrambles to hit its targets and the Coalition jibes One Nation over its internal policy confusion. In all major polls over the past few years, inflation has reigned supreme as the top issue.
The research painted a picture of One Nation voters, showing they are slightly less well off than the average voter ($101,000 versus the average $109,000 income), more likely to live outside major cities, and 12 percentage points more likely to hold a trade certificate. The majority are men.
Utting, who helped conduct Labor’s polling for many elections up to 2019, said that “migration is the real thing motivating One Nation supporters”.
“Cost-of-living rhetoric is everywhere these days and people are a bit deadened to it. Migration is the real hotspot. Everyone has a cost of living plan and it is hard to get cut-through,” he said of the research, conducted between August 7 and August 12.
The importance that voters place on Australia’s migration system and population, which has grown quicker than it has in other democracies this century, was demonstrated in this month’s Resolve Political Monitor. It found that more than half of voters across the spectrum believed the government was running the portfolio in an “unplanned and unmanaged way”.
Labor abruptly delayed a migration overhaul this month as it agonised over the economic and social consequences of reducing net overseas migration from about 300,000 to 225,000. The Coalition has also been at odds over migration, but Taylor has proposed to cut net migration to 175,000.
Utting and Hawker, a key adviser to prime minister Kevin Rudd, conducted weeks of focus groups followed by a survey to understand what was driving Australia’s populist surge. They will present their research at Parliament House in Brisbane on Tuesday. The work was commissioned by the Labor-aligned TJ Ryan think tank.
The poll finds that about half of One Nation’s supporters are totally committed to voting for the party at an election due in 2028. The rest, however, can be persuaded in a process Utting described as “chipping away at an iceberg as it comes out of the Antarctic”.
Hawker said of Hanson’s movement: “It’s moving away from just being a party of protest to one which has some pretty entrenched attitudes about the way Australia should be.”
The most recent Resolve survey showed core support for Labor, the Coalition and One Nation remained unchanged, with Labor at 28 per cent, the opposition steady on 23 per cent and Hanson’s party on 26 per cent.
Opposition MPs were pleased by a poll on Monday, published in Capital Brief and conducted by research firm Demos, showing the Coalition up four points and ahead of One Nation for the first time in many months.
The Utting-Hawker survey showed Hanson’s backers detest Labor and Albanese himself. Overwhelmingly, the respondents say that the only thing that could draw them back to the major parties is if Albanese or Taylor developed bold plans to reduce migration.
About 27 per cent said a united, credible Liberal Party would win them over, suggesting replacing Taylor with Liberal MP Andrew Hastie may be unwise after months of internal chaos in the Coalition. But two-thirds have barely heard from Taylor, underscoring his challenge with communication.
“One Nation’s rise is as much a story of Liberal failure as of One Nation success. Immigration and
the cost of living created the conditions. Labor is overwhelmingly rejected by these voters, and
the Liberals have not offered them a convincing alternative,” the research states.
A critical finding is that One Nation voters are split over migration issues.
An anonymous One Nation backer said: “I’m not against immigration. Because the moment you say anything, people assume the worst. My issue is the arithmetic. You can’t bring in that many people and not build the houses.”
Another argued: “It isn’t the number so much. It’s who, and whether they want to be part of what’s here.”
Asked what they feared, 57 per cent of One Nation supporters said Australia’s culture and identity were changing too quickly while 40 per cent said housing and infrastructure were strained.
One Nation’s newer supporters were more likely to take issue with the volume of migration, a view Hawker said was shared by many migrants. However, her more traditional support base believes the background of migrants is of greater concern. Hanson spoke in plain and sometimes incendiary terms about Muslim Australians after the Bondi attack in December, after which One Nation’s vote rose.
Hawker said the split emphasised a broader misalignment between Hanson’s core support and her new, expanded base. On issues such as Hanson’s hard line on abortion and sacking lazy workers, the survey showed many of Hanson’s supporters did not agree with her, providing opportunity for her opponents.
About 20 per cent of Hanson’s newer supporters said they could change their vote after Hanson’s positions on those issues – plus others such as her relationship with billionaire Gina Rinehart – were put to them. Only 4 per cent of her rusted-on base said the same.
“Within One Nation, there is a schism between those I’d call the long march veterans who sign up for an Australian equivalent of MAGA, as against other voters who say they’re sticking with Hanson but who are much less angry and less certain about some of the issues she’s putting forward as being fundamental,” Hawker said.
“You can’t just say One Nation is a reflection of Pauline Hanson. It is more complex.”
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Paul Sakkal is Chief Political Correspondent. He previously covered Victorian politics and won a Walkley award and the 2025 Press Gallery Journalist of the Year. Contact him securely on Signal @paulsakkal.14.Connect via X or email.
