Source : INDIA TODAY NEWS
8,056 dead in just five days. That’s the staggering toll a severe five-day heatwave could take in Uttar Pradesh, making it India’s deadliest hotspot for heat-related fatalities, according to a new study.
As rising temperatures and climate change fuel more frequent and intense heatwaves, researchers warn that Uttar Pradesh faces the highest risk of excess deaths during extreme heat events, highlighting the growing human cost of India’s warming climate.
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The figures are based on estimates of the fatalities during the 2024 heatwave, the year that broke all heat records, emerging as the hottest year on the planet since records began.
The estimated 8,056 deaths in UP are more than double the projected toll in Bihar, the second most affected state, which could see around 3,615 deaths.
Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan follow right behind, with projected tolls of 2,964 and 2,664 respectively.
The study used mortality data, population estimates and historical climate patterns to map how extreme heat could impact districts across India.
In addition to the state-specific numbers, the team of researchers also estimated a nationwide number. They found that even a single day of dangerous heat could trigger approximately 3,400 excess deaths nationwide.
Meanwhile, during a five-day heatwave, India is estimated to record nearly 30,000 deaths.
And out of these deaths, over 8,000 are expected in UP alone.
WHY UP HAS HIGHEST HEAT-RELATED DEATHS?
Uttar Pradesh’s grim distinction comes down to a brutal combination.
UP is India’s most populous state, has a high baseline number of daily deaths under normal conditions, and regularly endures extreme summer temperatures.
Meaning, when heat engulfs a state of this size and density, even a modest increase in heat-related risk quickly adds up to thousands of preventable deaths.
Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat together account for more than 60% of India’s projected heatwave mortality burden, even though these five states make up only about 43% of the country’s population.
UP’s grim story doesn’t just end there.
The heat-related risk across the state is not spread evenly either.
Several UP districts analysed in the study ranked among India’s most heat-vulnerable. The list included known locations like Prayagraj, Lucknow, Kanpur Nagar, Azamgarh, Agra and Bareilly; all of which could each record more than 180 excess deaths during a single five-day heatwave.
Only a few districts elsewhere in India, including Ahmedabad, Jaipur and Surat, are projected to see higher numbers.
The findings clearly highlighted the higher risk for large urban centres and the densely packed districts spread across the Indo-Gangetic plains.
A WARNING
To make matters worse, researchers cautioned that these figures may actually undercount the actual death toll, meaning the estimates are a low figure and that more people could face fatal consequences of extreme heat in UP.
The study drew heat-mortality relationships from city data, which means rural populations, that make up a large share of UP and are often exposed to outdoor heat for longer hours, may face even greater risks than the numbers suggest.
With climate change pushing temperatures to new extremes each year, the findings are, first and foremost, an urgent call to action.
For policymakers, the options available are few but effective; early-warning systems, stronger healthcare preparedness and district-level heat action plans.
It has come to a point where these options are not even options but essential needs for the most populous state of the most populous country. A country that finds itself facing the worst of climate change, manifesting as frequent and intense heatwaves.
– Ends
SOURCE :- TIMES OF INDIA
