Pakistan has renewed efforts to mediate between the United States and Iran amidst escalating mistrust, extending invitations to high-ranking Iranian officials with a diplomatic push seeking to revive peace negotiations. Yet the deepening distrust between DC and Tehran threatens the durability of any future ceasefire or understanding.
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## Islamabad’s Bid for Diplomacy
On Monday, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry announced that Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar had invited Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Islamabad “at his earliest convenience.” Simultaneously, National Assembly Speaker Ayaz Sadiq extended an invite to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s Senior Negotiator. It is not yet clear if or when either Iranian official will travel to Pakistan.
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## Accusations and Denials
US President Donald Trump sharply criticised Iran’s approach to mediation, drawing attention to what he called Tehran’s contradictory behavior. He accused Iranian leaders of “unbelievably duplicitous” conduct—requesting meetings and then publicly denying talks were underway. Trump warned that Iran faces “a deal or total surrender” unless it signs what he called a “good document.”
Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign ministry dismissed any substantive negotiations with the US, stating that discussions were limited to “technical” matters about reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei emphasised that Pakistan remains the mediator, with Qatar playing a supporting role.
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## The Islamabad Framework and Its Collapse
Pakistan has maintained a consistent stance since the war began on February 28—advocating restraint and dialogue. In April, Islamabad hosted direct US-Iran negotiations which ultimately led to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), signed in June by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and Donald Trump.
But these attempts at peace unraveled swiftly. An early ceasefire collapsed within days, prompting the US to impose a naval blockade on Iran’s southern ports. The MoU lasted barely a month before fresh hostilities resumed and the US reinstated the blockade.
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## Trust Eroded, Role Questioned
Experts say that while Pakistan remains integral by virtue of bridging communication between Washington and Tehran, its ability to enforce commitments is limited.
– **Asif Durrani,** former ambassador to Iran, described the MoU as “a foundational document” and asserted Pakistan’s mediation as “he done sincerely,” earning global acknowledgment.
– **Grace Wermenbol,** formerly with US national security, noted that “persistent recurring conflict has eroded the trust necessary for a longer-term ceasefire.”
– **Mehran Kamrava,** Georgetown University professor, argued the US lacks consistency, exit strategy, or a clear endgame, while Iran seeks to retain leverage, especially vis-à-vis the Strait of Hormuz.
Others point out that Pakistan’s reputation risks being undermined if it overpromises and underdelivers. Tehran-based analyst Seyed Mojtaba Jalalzadeh suggested Pakistan’s standing has shifted from potential conflict resolver to facilitator with access—but with limited influence.
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## Parallel Tracks: Strait of Hormuz, Regional Involvement
On another front, Iran and Oman have held separate talks focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic maritime passage through which roughly 20% of global oil flows during peacetime. US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, warned against arrangements that would give Iran excessive control over this critical waterway.
Analysts see a division of labor among mediators: Oman handles the technical and geographical dimensions, while Pakistan and Qatar engage on political-strategic issues—such as ceasefires, sanctions, nuclear matters, and regional security assurances.
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## Can Mediation Hold When Mistrust Deepens?
Pakistan now finds itself in a structural challenge rather than just a diplomatic one: it can facilitate conversations and draft agreements—but enforcing those commitments lies beyond its reach.
US rhetoric, particularly from President Trump, has oscillated between threats and negotiations, complicating the peace process. Jalalzadeh interprets such behavior not merely as posturing, but as a tactic to impose costs on Iran while preserving flexibility. Kamrava adds that unpredictability has become part of Trump’s foreign policy style—yet he warns it does not replace coherent strategy.
Observers also underline mounting domestic pressures within the US, where the war has drawn sharp criticism. Economic strain and the absence of clear objectives paint a picture of a strategy in turmoil.
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## What’s Next?
Mediation efforts continue, but the question is now who blinks first. Will Iran reverse course and engage in meaningful talks, or will the US escalate pressure further? Pakistan has made its position clear; it is committed to the peace framework—the MoU—and has played its part as a facilitator. Yet if Washington and Tehran do not trust one another or uphold their promises, Pakistan’s influence may slowly fade.
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